Forecasting Overview for North Yorkshire

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Forecasting Overview for North Yorkshire

• Victoria Gell
• Economic Information Manager
• Chief Economist Unit
• Yorkshire Forward

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What am I going to cover?

• GVA the size of the North Yorkshire economy
• Industry output and key growth sectors
• Employment and key growth sectors
• Why are they important?

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1. GVA - the size of the North Yorkshire economy

• North Yorkshire has an estimated GVA of 13.08
  billion in 2007- 16.1 of the regions 81.2
  billion.
• By 2015, it is estimated to grow by 22 to 15.96
  billion.
• YH growth 2007-2015 is forecast to grow by
  21.5 and the UK by 23.2.

Growth in line with UK and YH
Proportions remain broadly the same
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Local level GVA

• Growth 2002-2007
• UK 14.1
• YH 13.2
• North Yorkshire 12.9

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2. Industry output and key growth sectors
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Local level output

• Agriculture forms 7-8.5 of output in Hambleton,
  Richmondshire and Ryedale (NY- 3.6).
• Food Drink 13.3 of output in Ryedale (NY
  4.6).
• Construction forms nearly 17 of output in
  Richmondshire (NY 9.2).
• Hotels Catering are 8-9 of output in
  Richmondshire and Scarborough (NY 5.3).
• Transport forms 9-11.5 of output in York, Selby
  and Ryedale (6.9).

• Banking and Insurance is 11-12.5 of output in
  Craven and York (NY 6.3).
• Business Services forms 15 of output in
  Harrogate (NY -10.6).
• Health forms 12 of output in Scarborough (NY -
  7.5).
• Other Services represents 8 of output in
  Richmondshire (NY - 4.9).
• Significant local decreases forecast in output in
  Chemicals and Textiles Clothing.
• Notable decline (2007-2015) in Food Drink and
  Transport Equipment output in York.

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3. Employment and key growth sectors

• North Yorkshire is estimated to have 356,250
  Full-Time Equivalent employees in 2007.
• By 2015, this is estimated to grow by 3.6 to
  368,950.
• YH FTE growth 2007-2015 is forecast to grow by
  2.7 and the UK by 2.8.
• Total Employment is estimated to grow from
  435,590 to 455,310 a 4.5 growth rate (UK
  3.3, YH 3.5).

Employment growth forecasts above UK and YH
Proportions remain broadly the same
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How Total Employment breaks down
Part-time employment very significant in
Scarborough (36), much lower in Selby (24) and
Ryedale (23).
Self-employment 30 of Total Employment in
Richmondshire, 26 in Ryedale and 23 in Craven.
However, drops to 11 in York and 20 in
Harrogate.
Full-time employment 45 in Craven, 42 in
Richmondshire, 45 in Scarborough, but 57 in
York.
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FTE industry growth and decline
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Local level FTEgrowth to 2015
Harrogate (3,490) 720 Construction 660 Hotel
Catering 580 Business Services 680 Health 420
Other Services
Scarborough (1,180) 430 Health 330
Construction 220 Other Services 210 Hotel
Catering
Craven (1,210) 200 Banking Insurance 300
Hotel Catering
Richmondshire (1,390) -200 Agriculture 440
Construction 390 Hotel Catering 300 Other
Services 200 Health
Selby (380) -460 Agriculture -260 Other
Mining -210 Gas, Electricity, Water 320
Construction 290 Transport 280 Metals
York (2,020) -1,430 Food Drink -430
Construction 980 Health 960 Transport 850
Hotel Catering
Hambleton (1,530) -300 Agriculture 770
Construction 320 Hotel Catering 320
Health 410 Other Services
Ryedale (1,500) -260 Agriculture 520
Construction 250 Transport 360 Other Services
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4. Why are these three things important?

• The Review of Sub-national Economic Development
  and Regeneration - each region will have one
  over-arching growth objective (increasing GVA per
  head).
• Understanding where the North Yorkshire economy
  is forecast to be by 2015 and the degree to
  which it will potentially help achieve the GVA
  growth objective.
• Which sectors are likely to contribute the most
  towards the growth target, and which ones wont.
• Where the key employment opportunities will be,
  and ensuring that labour supply meets the likely
  business demand, both in terms of numbers, and
  the skills required.
• Obviously these three factors need to be squared
  against
• Sustainable employment growth
• Ageing workforce
• Migration and immigration
• Support structures (housing, transport, education
  etc.)
• BUT. thats a different story.