Major Events in History

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Major Events in History

• 2008-Historic Election
• 1980-Titanic Found
• 1957-Sputnik
• 1943-Penicillin First Used
• 1895-X-Rays Discovered
• 1893-First Car Built by Henry Ford
• 1838-Photograghy Invented

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Major Events in History

• 1825-Erie Canal Opens
• 1783-First Balloon Ride
• 1752-Benjamin Franklin-Electricity
• 1616-Blood Circulation Discovered
• 1492-We All Know This One
• 1280- First Spinning Wheel (Germany)
• 1215-King John Signs Magna Carta

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Major Events in History

• 1090 A.D.- Brian Burton Begins Lobbying
• (Estimated Date by Phil Ginder)

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Indiana Economic Forecast2009
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This is not a cycle, this is a reset."
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The Worst is Yet to Come

• Financial crisis has deepened, trillions of
  dollars in wealth obliterated
• Tighter credit for almost everyone
• Global recession, undermining exports
• Lower commodity prices offer some cushion
• Stimulus coming

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Recession - Great Recession

• National Bureau of Economic Activity (NBEA)
  declares recession started 12/07
• Recession one lasted from 12/07 9/08
• Great Recession started with the Lehman collapse
  9/15/08
• Stock market collapse 34 top 5 worst in
  217-year history of Wall Street
• No depression 1929-1933 GDP (-27)

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Household Net Worth Plunged

• Q3 2007 to Q3 2008 -4.3 trillion
• End-Q3 2008 to 12/08 -4.6 trillion
• Total loss 15 -8.9 trillion
• Wealth Effect Estimated at 5 cents on the
  dollar, which means about 440 billion hit to
  consumer spending (-4.4)

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Indiana Manufacturing Employment (2001-2008)
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Wildcard - Detroit ThreeEmployment Impact

• GM 41,000 (-1.4)
• All 3 147,000 (-5.0)

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Manufacturing Projections

• Production
• 2009 -5.5
• 2010 0.5

• Exports
• 2009 -3.6
• 2010 -0.1

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Bottom Line

• Recession will be long and deep
• Stimulus package
• Upside Risk Government intervention finally
  stabilizes credit markets
• Downside Risk Vicious spiral between economy and
  credit markets worsens despite government efforts

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2009HR and Labor Issues
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Immigration
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Eight Immigration Bills

• Cover every employer in Indiana
• Some have penalties to remove business licenses
• Some deal primarily with ancillary issues like
  false identification, release from prison, law
  enforcement training
• Sen. Delphs is the most punitive on business
  SB 580

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Health Insurance

• Assignment of Benefits in two bills--SB 75 and HB
  1299
• Both allow a patient/insured to assign his/her
  insurance benefit to medical provider whether the
  insurer or employer want him/her to or not
• Both allow the insured to be balance billed
• The purpose is to circumvent managed care (PPO)
• Coalition opposing the bill as last year

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Labor

• HB 1014 Move age discrimination from Labor Dept
  to Civil Rights Commission
• HB 1024 - FMLA for employers of 20-49
• HB 1166 Plant Closing
• HB 1353 40 hours paid leave per year
• HB 1371 Paid breaks and sick leave
• HB 1379 Employee Classification
• SB 533 IOSHA fine collections and enforcement
  provisions

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Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund Solvency

• Indiana is now insolvent
• Current debt about 414,000,000

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Projections Based On Three Estimates

• Global Insight- The Economic Outlook,
• December 11, 2008
• 2. President Obama- Stimulus Plan
• 3. President Obama- No Stimulus Plan
• 4. Indiana Department of Workforce Development

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Approx. Tax Revenue With Existing Tax Schedules
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Interim Steps

• Feds must approve an Indiana plan for handling
  loans and interest (if any)
• Prepare to raise interest money if necessary
  separate from trust fund
• Raise funds sufficient to stop the borrowing
• Avoid federal penalties which include loss of
  FUTA offset

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Restructuring

• Need a new set of tax schedules in the future
  that are sufficient to prevent future insolvency
• Need a restructuring of the eligibility criteria
• Need procedural changes to make determinations
  follow the law
• Need determinations made by people who are
  accountable for their work

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Restructuring

• Go slowly restructure over four or five years
• Make the changes as gradual as possible
• Do not harm the economy
• Incentivize participation and accountability

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All Eyes on Washington

• Employee Free Choice Act (EFCA)
• Dramatically Overturns Labor Law System
• Card Check
• Eliminates Secret Ballot Elections
• 90 Days to Bargain Contract
• 30 Days for Mediation
• Binding Arbitration
• More Information at www.imaweb.com

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All Eyes on Washington

• Re-Empowerment of Skilled and Professional
  Employees and Construction Tradeworkers Act
  (Respect Act)
• Ledbetter Fair Pay Act (signed)
• Elimination of Right to Work Laws (Taft-Hartley
  Section 14(b))
• FMLA Expansion
• Minimum Wage Increase (9.50 by 2011)

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All Eyes on Washington

• Expansion of Government Unions
• Changes to Union Financial Disclosures (LM-2s)
• Activist Dept. of Labor, OSHA, EPA, NLRB
• Patriot Act (Tax Foreign Operations and Labor
  Neutrality)
• Important COBRA Changes

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All Eyes on Washington

• This is going to costillions!!!!!

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What Can You Do?

• Be Informed
• Be Active
• Let Your Concerns Be Heard Before Its To Late!

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Indiana Manufacturers Association

• 800-462-7762
• www.imaweb.com