FACTORS AFFECTING SUPPORT FOR RURAL LAND USE CONTROLS

1
FACTORS AFFECTING SUPPORT FOR RURAL LAND USE
CONTROLS

• Donald M. McLeod, Jody Woirhaye
• And Dale J. Menkhaus
• Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics,
  University of Wyoming
• Institute for the Environment and Natural
  Resources, the Wyoming Agricultural Experiment
  Station and the USDA-NRI Rural Development
  Section.

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RESEARCH PROBLEM/OBJECTIVES

• Respondent Characteristics/Attitudes Determine
  Preferences for Growth Management Strategies
  (LAND USE CONTROLS)?
• Part of a Research\Extension Effort 
• County Land Use Planning

3
ECONOMIC THEORY

• Approval for Land Use Control Based on Market
  Segments/Constituencies
• Policy Choice Based on Private and Public
  Regarding Preferences Sen (1987) 
• Determinants of Choice Taken From Environmental
  Regulation Literature 
• RUM underlying LOGIT Models

4
METHODS

• Focus Groups
• ALL Resident/Landowner Households Surveyed
  (Dillman Method) 
• 52 Response Rate 
• Land Use Districts (Zoning)
• Purchase Agricultural Conservation Easements
  (PACE)

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MODEL

• Control? Fn (Public Private) Error 
• Public Choice Variables
• Attitudes Toward Private Land Management
• Preferences for Land Use Relative to
  Agriculture
• Private Choice Variables
• Future Place of Residence, Employment
• Quality of Life Given County Growth
• Length of Residence in County
• Current Place of Residence
• Education, Age, Income

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ESTIMATION RESULTS

• Significant Variables Approval for Zoning 
• Private Land Management (-)
• Residential Use for Irrigated Pasture ()
• Future Place of Residence (-)
• Education (-), Age (-), Income(-)
• Correct Predictions 69.9   
• Significant Variables Approval for PACE
• Residential Use for Sub-irrigated Hay Meadow ()
• Recreation/wildlife Use for Mountain Meadow ()
• Quality of Life Increasing With Growth ()
• Education (-), Age (), Income(-)
• Correct Predictions 63.2

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INTERPRETATION

• Zoning
• Zoning in Place Currently in County
• Protection of Investment Due to Variances
  (Enforcement)  
• Protection of Investment Due to Areas of
• Windfalls/Wipeouts 
• Protection of Large Unfragmented Parcels
• (Public Quality of Life)
• PACE 
• Vague, Unfamiliar to Respondents 
• Some Targeting of PACE by Land Type
• No Interest Among High Income Landed Hobby
• Ranchers (Scepticism)

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CONCLUSIONS/POLICY IMPLICATIONS

• Incompatibility of Environmental Regulatory
  Literature With Land Use Control Preferences
• Public Regarding Preferences 
• Appropriate Controls
• Wyoming Land Use Law
• Institutional Memory

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FUTURE WORK

• Split Out Policy Action (WTP, WTA)
• Model Referendum and Action As System Using IV,
  Heckman, Double Hurdle
• Market for PACE
• Importance of Policy Provider, Type of Payment
  Vehicle
• Public Regarding Preference Measures

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THE CONTRIBUTION OF ENVIRONMENTAL AMENITIES TO
AGRICULTURAL LAND VALUESHEDONIC MODELLING USING
GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS

• Don McLeod, Chris Bastian
• Matt Germino, Bill Reiners, Ben Blasko
• UNIVERSITY OF WYOMING
• USDA-NRI

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BACKGROUND

• Traditional Agricultural Land Value Sum of
  Productive Rents??
• Agricultural Land Values seem HIGHER than Rents
  would indicate in Rocky Mountain Region

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AG LAND HEDONIC PRICE MODELS (HPM)

• Land as Bundle of Attributes (Bartik/Bockstael/Geo
  ghegan/Xu/Torell)
• Inferring the Value of the Sticks in the Bundle
• Land Bid for in Multiple Markets
• Agriculturalists gt Production Characteristics
• Residential Markets gt Amenity Characteristics

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DATA SOURCES

• Input Characteristics via Farm Credit Services
  WY Farm Loan Board Appraiser Description of
  actual sales
• Amenity Characteristics via GIS
• Random Sample of 138 Sales

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VARIABLE DESCRIPTIONS

• /ACRE as DEPENDENT VAR. Average Sale Price by
  ranch/ farm
• TREND - 1 to 6
• PASTMEDW- non-irrigated aum per acre of parcel
  (grazing)
• IRIGAUAC - irrigated (sprinkler or gravity) aum
  per acre of parcel (crops)

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VARIABLE DESCRIPTIONS

• PUBAUMS - sum of aums from leased public land
  (state/BLM) as of deeded
• RRUAPER - aums from leased railroad land as of
  deeded
• IMPDOLAC - Total improvements divided by deeded
  acres
• TOWND - distance miles to nearest town of 2000
  people (urban amenities)

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VARIABLE DESCRIPTIONS

• ELKACPER - acres of habitat for elk divided by
  deeded acres
• FISHVALU - an index as the product of (stream
  meters) x (fish productivity)
• SIMPINDX - Index ranging from 0 to 100 of
  diversity of 360 degree panoramic view from
  centroid on parcel
• Regional interaction terms for above

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ECONOMETRIC CONSIDERATIONS

• Heteroscedasticity Issues
• Variables scaled (nonlinear tried)
• Breusch-Pagan test YES
• Whites Correction OK
• Screened for Multicollinearity OK
• Spatial Correlation?

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MODEL PERFORMANCE

• OLS (log-lin quadratic tried)
• R Sq 0.604
• F-Stat 13.40

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ESTIMATES /ACRE

• INTERCEPT Negative .004
• TREND Positive .010
• PASTMEDW Positive .009
• IRIGAUAC Positive .0001
• TOTAUMS Negative .001
• PUBAUPER Negative NS
• RRAUPER Positive .0001
• IMPDOLAC Positive .035

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ESTIMATES /ACRE (CONT.)

• TOWND Positive .070
• ELKACPER Positive .101
• REGELK Negative .013
• FISHVALU Positive NS
• REGFISH Positive .010
• SIMPINDX Positive .0001
• REGSIMP Positive .043

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CONCLUSIONS

• Productive Rents Not Entire Story of Agricultural
  Land Markets
• Improved Validity with better specified HPM
• Public Land leasing lowers Price
• Rural Amenities raises Price

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POLICY CONSIDERATIONS

• Rocky Mountain Agric. Land Markets
• Viability of Rocky Mountain Ranching (buy/lease)
• AG Opportunities to Capture more Land Rents
• Parcels at Risk for Development
• Fragmentation and Wildlife, Water Issues
• County Cost of Rural Community Services
• Management of Nearby Federal Lands
• Land Use Planning

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FURTHER RESEARCH CONSIDERATIONS

• GIS variables
• Potential of GIS in HPM
• Heteroscedasticity Spatial Correlation (test of
  hypothesis issues)?
• Valued Aspects of View