Assessing Hurricane Intensity

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Assessing Hurricane Intensity

• TEAM TIGERS
• Heather
• Eleanor
• Matt
• Arista
• Elizabeth
• This presentation funded by Halliburton

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Is it all Hype?

• Mean hurricane intensity has not increased in a
  statistically significant way over time
• Occurrence of category 5 hurricanes in the past
  15 years is due to many factors
• Measurement of hurricanes before 1940s unreliable

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X2 value .482627within p.05 therefore the null
hypothesis is not rejected
The linear regression shows a downward trend and
chi-squared value also supports the null
hypothesis which is that hurricane strength is
not increasing
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Hurricane Isabel storm front
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Climate Models are not reliable Los Ninos
Example

• La Nina and El Nino affect sea surface
  temperature and hurricanes
• La Nina increases hurricane severity by warming
  the Atlantic Ocean
• El Nino decreases hurricane severity since it
  cools the Atlantic Ocean
• But really the data doesnt statistically support
  it!
• In years with category 5s, such as 2005, there is
  not necessarily an influence from Los Ninos

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El Nino and La Ninacorrelation value
-0.114789Therefore there is no correlation to
category 5s
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Future Research

• Without a significant increase in mean hurricane
  intensity over time it is impossible to show a
  consistent correlation with other factors, like
  SST
• Must measure changes in atmospheric and oceanic
  conditions

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Historical frequency of high intensity hurricanes
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Hurricane Fran
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El Fin

• Our data shows that mean strength is not
  increasing
• Represents uncertainty in climate and hurricane
  data manipulation
• Trends in hurricane intensity needs to be
  measured for longer
• Not enough data

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Questions? GRRRREAT!