HKU CONVOCATION HONG KONG 2030 FORUM

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HKU CONVOCATION HONG KONG 2030 FORUM

• ON POPULATION
• Fertility Decline, Mobility and Diversity
• by
• Wong Siu-lun
• Centre of Asian Studies
• The University of Hong Kong
• 21 February 2004

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HONG KONGS DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION AND LABOUR
NEEDS

• Fertility decline extremely low total fertility
  rate of 927 children per 1,000 women in 2001
• Long life expectancy projected to reach 82 for
  men and 88 for women in 2031
• Aging a quarter of the population expected to
  be aged 65 or above by 2031
• Shrinking workforce prime working age
  population declines
• Rapid demographic transition compressed in
  less than 50 years

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Total Fertility Rates of Hong Kong and Selected
Low Fertility Economies, 2000

• Hong Kong 1,020
• Singapore 1,600
• Japan 1,340
• Germany 1,360
• Denmark 1,770
• Netherlands 1,720
• Finland 1,730
• Sweden 1,540
• United Kingdom 1,640
• Australia 1,750
• Note 1999 figure
• Source Census and Statistics Department,
  Hong Kong Population Projections
  2002-2031, p. 53.

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• Policy response in 2003
• Formulated by task force head by Chief Secretary
• Not the specific responsibility of any bureau or
  department

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POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS

• The One Way Permit Scheme
• Training and Other Needs of New Arrivals
• Education and Manpower Policy
• Admission of Mainland Professionals and Talent
• Investment Immigrants
• Policies Impacting on Childbirth
• Elderly Policy
• Growing Transient Population Foreign Domestic
  Helpers
• Eligibility for Public Benefits
• Portability of Benefits
• Need for Regular Review

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HONG KONG A HUB FOR LABOUR MIGRATION

• Hong Kong has long been a city of migrants
• Emigration of Chinese from Hong Kong began as
  soon as the territory became a British colony in
  1842
• By 1939, over 6 million Chinese left Hong Kong to
  go to every part of the world
• Main destinations United States Australia
  Canada South America and West Indies Peru
  Cuba Dutch Possessions Strait Settlements
  Hawaii Mauritius British North Borneo South
  Africa (E. Sinn 1995 )
• Hong Kong key economic centre for the overseas
  Chinese
• Intense traffic in people, remittances and
  information

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INFLOW OF POPULATION

• Illegal immigrants from the Chinese mainland
  150,089 in 1980 abolition of touch base
  policy decreased to 12,170 in 1999.
• Legal immigrants from the Chinese mainland 150
  a day or 55,000 per year
• Skilled immigrants about 16,700 foreign
  professional admitted each year from 1997 to
  2001 only 268 mainland professionals admitted
  from 2001 to 2002.
• Foreign domestic workers 21,517 in 1982
  237,104 in 2002.
• Imported workers 1,200 admitted under
  supplementary labour scheme
• Increased use of Hong Kong as transit port to
  other countries (Chin Kong 2003)

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Effect of Migration on Population Projection
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Mobility and Dynamism

• Migration and entrepreneurship
• Inflow of Shanghai entrepreneurs to Hong Kong in
  1940s (Wong 1988)
• Small industrial entrepreneurs in 1970s and 1980s
  were mostly immigrants
• Decreased immigration and declining
  entrepreneurship?
• SME in Japan Regeneration and creation of
  entrepreneurial society

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Place of Birth of Entrepreneurs
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Diversity and Cosmopolitanism

• 2001 Population Census only 5 non-ethnic
  Chinese
• This 5 comprised mainly of Filipinos,
  Indonesians and nationals of Southeast Asian
  origin
• 95 ethnic Chinese diverse migration experience
• Not quite multi-ethnic, but rather multi-cultural
• Linkages to overseas Chinese communities to be
  strengthened?
• Increased mobility who is a Hong Konger?
• Citizenship rights and obligations tax revenue

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Thank You