Deforestation in the Neotropics: Myths and Truths

1
Deforestation in the Neotropics Myths and
Truths?
Eirik Stijfhoorn
NEOTROPICAL RAINFOREST ECOLOGY SEMINAR (PBIO
693) Department of Environmental and Plant
Biology Ohio University, Athens Spring Quarter,
2002
2
While you are eating, lets have a look at the
reality!
Image bsrsi.msu.edu/rfrc/deforestation.html
3
Outline

• Questions
• History
• Why Focus
• Definitions
• How Much
• Causes and Effects
• Alternatives
• Answers

Overview
4
Questions
When and where are the first indications of
deforestation?
Why should we focus our attention on tropical
rain forest deforestation?
What is FRA and why the focus?
Is deforestation increasing or decreasing?
What are the real causes and effects?
What is Avança Brasil?
What are the alternatives currently discussed?
5
History of deforestation

• Sahara (?? BC)
• Deforestation and desertification, uncertain
  when.
• Middle East (2600 BC - present)
• Overuse and exploitation of cedar forests in
  Lebanon.
• Mayan Empire (2500 BC - 900)
• Severe and repetitive droughts started about 800
  AD.
• Soil erosion, more deforestation, agricultural
  and cultural collapse.
• Today a look-a-like pristine primary forests.
• China (200 BC - present)
• Deforestation and desertification in when the
  Great Wall and Silk Road.
• Continues today.
• Norway (1400 - 1500)
• Amsterdam on Norwegian oak poles.
• British navy vessels.
• Severe genetic degradation, still persistent
  today.

History
Source WRI 2001
6
Kjøp inn platano
7
History, cont.

• Norway (WWII)
• Occupant forces degrades softwood forests.
• Management and educational programs
• Forest owner organizations
• Political interest aids the recovery to a better
  situation than before.
• Southeast Asia (late 20th century)
• 70 of forests (minus PNG and parts of Borneo)
  deforested.
• Conversion to oil palm plantations.
• 1997-98 Los Niños.
• Resettled farmers from Sumatra to Java.
• The Amazon (today)
• Large-scale infrastructure and business
  investments.
• Asian timber companies due to depletion of own
  and African resources.
• Forest fires and fragmentation a continuos
  problem.

History
Source WRI 2001
8
Why so much focus on deforestation?

• The SCOPE survey Environmental issues for the
  21st century
• 200 scientists
• 50 countries surveyed.
• Environmental problems from existing problems
  that do not receive enough policy attention.
• Problems cited most frequently
• 1) Climate change.
• 2) Quantity and quality of water resources.
• 3) Deforestation and desertification.
• 4) Poor governance at national and international
  levels.
• 5) Population growth and changing social values.

Source UNEP (1999)
9
Focus, cont.

• Major focal points
• Global climate
• Forest net sink of CO2 capacity greater than in
  crops and pastures.
• Loss or change of diversity - both biologically
  and culturally
• 70 of the species in Ural and Canada
• Extinct in 100 years.
• Increased frequency and severity of fires
• El Nino in SE Asia in 1997 and 98.

Why focus
Smoke haze over Indonesia on 19 October
1997Image UNEP (1999)
10
Focus, cont.

• Economic wealth
• Principal criteria for sustainabilityVanishes
  with deforestation.
• Water quality and quantity
• Internal and external cyclingTerrestrial and
  marine life affected by flooding.
• Increased health problems
• Increased mortality from parasitic disease (Patz
  et al. 2000).
• Aesthetic and socio-cultural value
• Human ethics shows a self-interest in the care
  and conservation of nature.
• As Wilson (1993) points out the loss of
  biophilia, i.e., the innately emotional
  affiliation of human beings to other living
  organisms.

Why focus
11
The FRA programmes?

• RESPONSIBLE FOR MEASURING GLOBAL DEFORESTATION!
• Data used by ecologists, climate change
  scientists, policymakers, educators, and
  environmental activists for years to come.
• Accurate findings are paramount!
• Before the FRA initiatives, the 1972 Stockholm
  Conference recognized frustrating controversies
• the estimates varied considerably between the
  institutions that provided background data and
  results.
• Why?
• Methodological differences - no standardized
  protocols.
• Developing countries lacked the financial and
  technical resources.
• Corruption and political.

FRA
Forest Resource Assessment programmeby FAO.
Sources FAO and UNEP 1982, FAO 1995, FAO 2001a
12
FRA, cont.

• The FRA 1980, 1990 and 2000 programmes, should
  ensure
• Partcipation from
• all countries
• internationally recognized institutions.
• Capacity building
• nationally
• internationally.
• Standardized
• remote sensing and global mapping techniques
• ground truthing and
• establish permanently re-measured plots.
• Comprehensive and transparent information bases.

FRA
Will examine some numbers and problems with FRA
Sources FAO and UNEP 1982, FAO 1995, FAO 2001a
13
Definitions of forests

• As many players as trees?
• The Companion
• Lists forest ecosystem types tropical rain
  forest, jungle or successional forests,
  savannas, terra firme, varzea, etc., but do not
  directly define what is a forest (Kricher
  1997).
• FRA 2000 (FAO 2001a)
• Canopy cover gt10 percent and area gt5 ha.
• Trees should be able to reach min 5 meter.
• Natural forests and plantations lumped.

Definitions Forests
14
Definitions of deforestation

• The Companion the cutting, clearing, and
  removal of rainforest or other related
  ecosystems, and subsequent conversion into other,
  less biodiverse, antrophogenic ecosystems such
  as pasture, cropland, or plantations. (Kricher
  1997).
• FRA 2000 (FAO 2001a)
• Conversion of forests to another land use or the
  long-term reduction of the canopy cover below
  the 10 percent threshold.
• Loss can only be caused and maintained by
  continued human-induced or natural
  perturbation.
• Includes conversion to agriculture, pasture,
  water reservoirs, and urban areas.
• Specifically excludes areas where trees have
  been removed by harvesting or logging and where
  forests is expected to regenerate naturally
  secondary successions.
• In areas with SB and forest fragments in
  patches, the net change over a large area is
  used.

Definitions Deforestation
Degradation is not reflected in deforestation
estimates.
Source FAO 2001a
15
How much?

• Globally
• The Amazon
• The Caribbean
• Central America
• The Guyanas
• French Guiana

The extent
16
How much, cont.
FRA 1990 and 2000 Adopted from Sing (1993), FAO
(1993, 2001a)
The extent Globally
Comparison of forest cover area and deforestation
from FRA 1990 and 2000
On a global level, FAO concluded that there had
been a positive development in forest cover
between 1990 and 2000 as deforestation had slowed
by 20 percent.
17
How much, cont.
FRA 2000 Source FAO (2001a)
Forest cover area and deforestation for four
subregions
The extent Amazon Caribbean C-Am Guianas
Among top 10 (worldwide) in area change from
1981 through 85 (Kricher 1993)
18
How much, cont.
French Guiana An Extensions of the Amazon
"selvas
among the world's most forested areas (more than
90-95 covered in natural forests)
The extent FrenchGuiana
Source FAO 2000
19
How much, cont.
Not much gone!
cleared areas form a narrow strip, parallel to
the Atlantic coast
The extent FrenchGuiana
Source FAO 2000
20
Why No Deforestation in FG?
1) Most of the area is State Forest managed by
Office National des Forêts. 2) Timber export is
low and declining. 3) Most of the population
(95) lives along the coast. (CIRAD 2000).
4) National park planned to cover most of the
southern 1/3 of the country.
The extent FrenchGuiana
Timber harvesting schemes for French Guiana

• Forest Management
• Area with long-term timber harvesting
  scheme increased with 25 from 1991-95 to
  1996-00.
• Probably under sustainable harvesting and
  management regime.

Source FAO 2000a
21
Why No Deforestation, cont.

• Import and Export of Forest Products

Trade of forest products for 2000 in French Guiana
The extent FrenchGuiana
Forest products production 1992-00 in French
Guiana

• French Guiana produces modest quantities of
  saw timber, mainly for domestic use.
• Palm hearts are important NWFP for the French
  Guiana export industry.

Source FAO 2000a
22
But are the FRA results reliable?

• WRI (Matthews 2001) revised the FRA 1980, 1990,
  and 2000
• The 2000 results are wrong!
• FRA Total forest cover has increased!
  WHY?
• Plantations has increased while natural
  forest has decreased!
• Between the 1990 and 2000 reports, FAO changed
  some of the definitions for forest cover
• Threshold level in developed countries where
  lowered from 20 to 10 percent.
• Australia suddenly increased their forest area
  from 40 mill to 158 mill ha while these areas
  officially is classified as deserts in that
  country.
• Russia has complicated definitions and the
  thundra and boreal forest ecotone is vague.
• Canadas Provincial reports covers only
  productive forest though more meet the FAO
  standards.

apples and oranges
FRA Reliability
23
Reliability, cont.

• Many developing countries has still poor data
  quality
• 33 out of 137 countries has only a partial
  forest inventory.
• 28 countries are without any inventory.
• Many estimates are simply given as expert
  estimates! Differing views have been solved
  with the Delphi Technique and the Convergence
  of Evidence Technique(??).
• Statistical inaccuracy
• The remote sampling covers only 10 percent of
  total tropical area
• - Too little according to an expert advisory
  group.
• - 80 to 90 percent sampling rate is needed to
  achieve 20 percent accuracy (Tucker and
  Townshend 2000).
• FAO uses 117 randomly distributed reference
  sites
• - Deforestation - by nature - is NOT random as
  it follows human corridors!

apples and oranges
FRA Reliability
The FRA methodology seems to be both inadequate
and inconsistent
24
Recommendations
apples and oranges

• FRA should focus on core data for use by other
  institutions.
• Cut-off levels in canopy cover (e.g. 10-20,
  20-50) to overcome differences in definitions
  and generalizations.
• Distinguish between existing forests and
  regenerating forest for assessing disturbance
  levels.
• Distinguish between management regime
  (non-managed vs. intensely natural forests,
  plantations, etc.)
• Conduct a new FRA 1990 - II baseline study
  (state-of-the-art images from ESAs Earthsat and
  NASAs Landsat 7).
• Establish a consortium of specialized data
  providers and analyzers ( Global Forest
  Information Agenda).

FRA Future
25
What is causing deforestation?

• The Companion discusses the Brazilian Amazon and
  argues
• that the following causes started in the 70s and
  80s and resulted in widespread deforestation in
  the 80s and 90s and into the 00s??
• Cattle ranching
• Overpopulation
• Poverty
• Tax cuts
• Resettlement of people
• Roads
• Poor soils
• Mining and pollution
• Petrodollar recycling
• Timber harvesting
• Modernization of agriculture

Causes
Source Kricher 1997
26
Causes, cont.
Ranching,Acre, 1995.
Bilde

• Cattle ranching, overpopulation, poverty
• Kricher argues that ranching is caused by
  (extra-Amazonian) overpopulation.
• Since the 1960s, the Brazilian Amazon
• Increase from 2 to 20 million non- indigenous
  people (Laurance et al. 2001a).
• A population density at this level can not be
  deemed overpopulation.
• Q Do not mix apples and oranges again!
• The vicious poverty cycle favored by many since
  the Brundtland Commission
• Poverty is the main cause of environmental and
  resource degradation. Environmental
  degradation will then hurt the poor, who may be
  forced to degrade their resources even
  further. (Angelsen and Wunder 2002).
• Q Can tax cuts for the rich and a failed
  population control policy be
• juxtapositioned to a poor farmer who
  needs to feed his kids the next morning?

Foto Eirik Stijfhoorn
Causes RanchingPopulation Poverty
Population density thresholds in different forest
types
Source Sing 1993
27
Causes, cont.

• Resettlement of people
• Road-building objective in the 70s
• - To move 100,000 families from the NE
  part of the country.
• - Only 6,000 moved!
• Q Why did the resettlement policy fail?
• Road network systematically located on nutrient
  poor soil
• - Cannot sustain agriculture such as Green
  Revolution upland rice
• Q Why has the road planning been so disastrous?
  Who is responsible?
• Alternative and native crops - cassava, and
  peanuts, pineapple, palm products such as chonta
  (Bactris spp.) has not been promoted.
• Q Why did the extension and education crash?
  Or was it never in place?

Foto Eirik Stijfhoorn
Causes Migration
Carretera Marginal, Ucayali, Peru 1999
28
Causes, cont.

• Mining and pollution
• Pig iron mills at Grande Carajas lead to annual
  deforestation of 610,000 ha.
• Q Was is the government only interested in the
  goodwill and profit of the big business?
• Gold rush and Hg contamination has caused
  encroachment of indigenous land and more
  deforestation.
• Q Should the miners be accused for causing the
  havoc when the market is driven by the
  demand in Rio and Manhattan?

Causes MiningPollution
Logging before bauxite mining. Subsequent
reforestation of native tree species, Trombetas,
Brazil, 1995.
Foto Eirik Stijfhoorn
Foto Eirik Stijfhoorn
29
Causes, cont.

• Timber harvesting
• Wood processors - increased from 100 to 3,000
  between the 50s and the 90s
• - over 400 domestic companies.
• - a recent influx of Asian corporations
  (Laurance et al. 2001b).
• - at the same time, large-scale ranching
  operations has dropped.
• Q Who is behind all this timber capital?
  The poor SB farmer?
• Harvesting systems - strip-logging from Peru
  / CELOS from Suriname / others
• - suggested as sustainable alternatives to
  selective logging or clearcutting.
• Q Do these systems work? Are they too
  complicated/costly to be implement by the
  lay/poor farmer? Has RD and the
  extension system failed totally?

Timber logging, Costa Rica, 1989.
Foto Eirik Stijfhoorn
Causes Timber
30
Causes, cont.

• Financing modernization of agriculture
• IADB (Singh 1999) The clearing of forest land
  for agriculture is one of the major causes of
  deforestation in the tropics
• Brazil has borrowed enormous amounts of to
  finance its modernization of agriculture for
  export crops.
• Q A statement like this must be followed
  with a clear differentiation between -
  small- vs. large-scale - sustainable vs.
  unsustainable.
• Or else, wheres the logic?

Causes Agriculture
31
Causes, cont.

• Seen
• Cattle ranching, overpopulation, and poverty
• Tax cuts, resettlement of people, and soils
• Mining and pollution and Petrodollar recycling
• Timber harvesting and modernization of
  agriculture
• Other causes
• Governmental Expansion Policies
• Burning and Wildfires
• New Frontiers Forest Fragmentation Changing
  Spatial Patterns

Causes Other
Log transportation on Rio Ucayali, Peru 1999

• Governmental Expansion Policies
• Seen
• Attract International Capital
• Facilitate Market Opportunities
• Promote Interest of Specific Groups
• Also
• National Political Support
• Security Interests / Territorial Claims

Foto Eirik Stijfhoorn
32
Causes, cont.

• Burning and Wildfires

CausesFires
Streaks of gray in the earth's atmosphere over
South America show the magnitude and number of
rain forest fires burning.
Foto Eirik Stijfhoorn
Corta quema in Palcazu Valley, Peru, 1999.
Source www.rainforests.net
33
Causes, cont.

• Cochrane et al. (1999) study on Fire Dynamics in
  Brazil
• Methods
• Fire impacts on forest structure, biomass, and
  species composition
• Landsat TM imagery and interviews
• Before and after El Niño-induced fires in
  1992/93.

CausesFires

• Ten 0.5-ha imagery plots (w/2 controls) spread
  over 100 km2 in Tailândia and Paragominas.
• Interviews of landowners (n117) were used to
  assess fire in four study sites.
• All sites along the development frontier known
  as the Arc of Deforestation.

Study regions within the Brazilian Amazon
Tailândia Paragominas
34
Causes, cont.

• Key findings
• Closed canopy forests
• 1st fire - move slowly
• - similar to prescribed burn
• - kills about 95 of the trees
• Previously burned
• - more likely to burn than unburned
• - severe mortality results in very open canopy
  (10-40).
• Recurrent fires
• - appears as deforested in satellite imagery
  and is misclassified.

CausesFires
35
Causes, cont.
Two 64-km2 imagery subsections illustrating the
differences in location and form of normal
deforestation and fire-induced deforestation.
CausesFires
Key findings Deforested areas

• Study classifies burns according to initiation
• normal deforestation
• slashed and burned for cattle pasture and crops
• appears adjacent to existing forest edges and
  had regular shapes
• fire-induced deforestation
• extremely thinned (i.e., heavily selected
  logged), degraded pastures
• appears far from forest edges and had irregular
  shapes

Source Cochrane et al. (1999)
36
Causes, cont.

• Key findings deforested areas cont.
• Fire-induced deforestation increased
  deforestation estimates by 129
• correcting the official deforestation estimates
  (i.e., Brazils FRA) for this factor,
  implies that deforestation in 1993 to 1995
  occurred largely because of widespread El
  Niño-induced fires in 1992 and 1993.
• Fire rotations in the region
• imagery 7 - 14 years
• interviews 23 - 38 years

CausesFires
Deforestation and forest burning determined with
imagery analyses and interview-based data
Source Cochrane et al. (1999)
37
Causes, cont.

• Summary
• Roughly 50 of the remaining forests have
  burned.
• 20 having burned more than once.
• Left unchecked, the current fire regime will
  result in an transition of the entire area to
  either scrub or grassland.
• Effects on the regional climate, biodiversity,
  and economy are likely to be extreme.
• Fire-induced changes will take years to occur,
  but are irreversible.

CausesFires
Source Cochrane et al. (1999)
38
Causes, cont.

• New Frontiers Forest Fragmentation and Changing
  Spatial Patterns
• Characteristics of Frontier Forest (Bryant et al.
  1997)
• Frontier Forest large intact natural forest
  ecosystems - undisturbed and large enough to
  maintain all of their biodiversity.
• Non-Frontier Forests secondary forest,
  plantations, degraded forest, and patches
  of primary forest that do not meeting the above
  criteria.

CausesFrontiers
The Transamazonian highway near Altimira, Brazil.
A satellite view of the same area a few years
later.
The road stretches through virgin rain forest
shortly after construction.
Images www.rainforests.net/pictures.htm
39
Causes, cont.

• WRI Frontier Forest Index
• Maps of current forest cover (WCMC/WWI/CIFOR).
• Overlaying (GIS ) maps with Sierra Club's
  "wilderness areas maps to define large
  wooded blocks devoid of human infrastructure.
• 90 regional forest experts reviewed the maps
  and nominated, rejected, or redefined sites
  as FF.

Frontier Forest Indices for Selected Countries
CausesFrontiers
FFI ranks countries on a scale of 0 (best) to
99 (worst) by multiplying original FF lost
(estimates for 8,000 years ago) with remaining
FF classified under moderate or high threat.
Bryant et al. (1997)
40
Causes, cont.
WRI Three FFI Sites at Risk in S-America
Bolívar State Forest type TropicalGeographic
location Southeastern VenezuelaThreats
Logging, mining (gold and diamonds), and oil
exploration.
CausesFrontiers
The Atlantic Rainforest Forest type
TropicalGeographic location Coastal
BrazilThreats Logging, agricultural clearing,
excessive vegetation removal, pollution.
Coastal Chilean Forests Forest type
TemperateGeographic location Southern
ChileThreats Clearing for plantations, logging
for the wood-chip industry, fuelwood production.
Bryant et al. (1997)
41
Causes, cont.

• Avança Brasil - Frontier Forest Policies in
  Brazil
• Several ongoing development programs
• Pilot Program to Conserve the Brazilian Rain
  Forest
• 340 mill from G-7.
• Land-use planning, extractive and Amerindian
  reserves, ecological corridors,
  capacity-building for local governments.
• Bilateral aid and programs
• Hundreds of mill.
• Other governments.
• Domestic governmental initiatives.
• Private organizations.
• All this pale vs. "Avança Brasil" (Advance
  Brazil)
• 40 billion to ongoing and planned development
  over the years 2000-07.
• New all-weather highways and railroads.
• Gas and power lines.
• Hydroelectric projects.

Causes Avança Brasil
Sources Laurance et al. 2001a,b
42
Causes, cont.

• Laurance et al. (2001a,b) study on environmental
  effects
• Methods
• Spatial data utilized in GIS model
• Current forest cover and rivers
• Fire proneness of forests
• Roads/highways (existing/planned, paved/unpaved)
• Infrastructure projects (existing/planned)
• Logging/mining activity
• Parks/reserves/national forests/extractive
  reserves/indigenous lands
• Two model scenarios
• Optimistic
• All all reserves remain pristine or only
  lightly degraded.
• Non-optimistic
• Indigenous lands and moderate-protection
  reserves moderately degraded.
• High-protection reserves lightly degraded.

Causes Avança Brasil
Source Laurance et al. 2001a,b
43
Causes, cont.
Results
Causes Avança Brasil
Existing and planned highways and roads.
Existing and planned major infrastructure.
Source Laurance et al. 2001a,b
44
Causes, cont.
Results cont.
Percentage of closed-canopy forest destroyed by
1992 as a function of distance from paved and
unpaved roads.
Causes Avança Brasil
Source Laurance et al. 2001a,b
45
Causes, cont.
Results cont.
Scenarios of predicted forest degradation by year
2020. Optimistic (top) Non-optimistic
(bottom) Black is deforested or heavily
degraded.Red is moderately degraded. Yellow is
lightly degraded. Green is pristine.
Causes Avança Brasil
Source Laurance et al. 2001a,b
46
Causes, cont.

• Conclusion
• It is clear that
• The Brazilian Amazon will be drastically altered
  by current schemes and trends the next 20
  years.
• Greatest loss in the south and east.
• Extensive fragmentation and degradation in the
  central and northern parts.
• Under the non-optimistic scenario, few pristine
  areas will survive outside the western quarter
  of the region.

Causes Avança Brasil
Source Laurance et al. 2001a,b
47
Moving Beyond the MythsDependency Theory and
Web of Causality
Breakfast of Biodiversity The Truth About Rain
Forest Destruction (by biologists John
Vandermeer and Ivette Perfecto, 1995). Q
What causes rain forest destruction? A1 The
Dependency Theory describes the disconnection
between the First and the Third World.
Causes Real causes
A2 There is a Web of Causality, no single
component is the true cause!
48
Dependency Theory
The World System according to the Dependency
Theory
Causes Realcauses
Source Vandermeer and Perfecto (1995)
49
Web of Causality
The Web of Causality for tropical rain forest
deforestation
Causes Real causes
Source Vandermeer and Perfecto (1995)
50
The Real Causes and Effects are?

• Antrophogenic
• Corruption, Greed and Bureaucracy
• Ignorance and Carelessness
• Political Adaptation and Goodwill
• Imperialism, Big business and Globalization
• New Economic Opportunities
• Wrong RD, Technology, and Education
• National Security
• Biotic
• Highly Complex Ecosystem

• Roads
• Cattle ranching
• Migration
• Timber harvesting
• Unsustainable agricultural
• Fire
• Mining
• Poverty and overpopulation

1 EFFECTS
Causes
Causes Real causes
CAUSES

• Loss of Biodiversity and Culture
• Soil Erosion and Nutrients
• Reduced Water Qual. And Quant.
• Incr. Pollution and Health Prob.
• Increased Poverty and Overpopulation

2 EFFECTS
51
Alternatives to deforestation

• The Companion
• Extractive reserves
• Indigenous people and Rubber tappers.
• Peters et al. (1989) NPV study.
• Extractors not necessarily defenders of rain
  forest.
• Largely abandoned in 21th century.
• Reclamation of Degraded Ecosystems
• Alternative and sustainable agriculture.
• The Green Revolution vs Farming in Natures
  Image (Soule and Piper, 1992).
• Management of degraded pastures and secondary
  forests.

Alternatives
52
Alternatives, cont.

• Ecotourism
• Viable locally.
• But no regional and sustainable effect.
• National Parks and Preserves
• Definitively needed.
• But needs local participation and considerations.

Alternatives
Land areas in French Guiana suitable for
protection according to IUCN. Source FAO
(2000)
53
Alternatives, cont.

• Conservation Strategies
• The SLOSS (single large area or several small)
  debate among scholars
• But no consensus.
• Maps (100 scientists from all fields) identified
  104 priority areas in Amazonia.
• All areas comprised 60 of the region -gt too
  broad.

Alternatives
Conservation International Hotspots

• Education
• Loss of bio-anthropological knowledge.
• Needs programs on all levels.
• But with focus on the end users, the SB
  farmer.

• Areas
• Brazil (Atlantic Forest, Cerrado, large portion
  of Amazonia)
• Guayana Shield (parts of Venezuela and Brazil,
  all of Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana)
• Andes (Venezuela, Ecuador, Colombia, Peru,
  Bolivia)
• Source CI
  (2002)

54
Alternatives, cont.

• Other sources
• Laurance et al. (2001a,b)
• Carbon-offset funds
• Kyoto Protocol
• Intensified agriculture
• Agroforestry and perennial crops.
• Vandermeer and Perfecto (1995)
• Synthesized and gave some questions and answers
• Q What is a model for the future?
• A A planned mosaic based on ecological and
  egalitarian principles!
• Q What is the political action plan?
• A Intensify the struggle for social justice!

Alternatives
The alternatives appears rather socio-economic
than technical or biological!
55
Answers
When and where are the first indications of
deforestation?
Sahara ?? BC and Middle East 2600 BC!
Why should we focus our attention on tropical
rain forest deforestation?
Climatic change, loss of bio- and cultural
diversity, fires, water, biophilia!
What is FRA and why the focus?
FAOs forest resource assessment programme that
seeks to standardize clean up the
deforestation estimates!
Is deforestation increasing or decreasing?
Apparently decreasing, but still faults with
methodology!
What are the real causes and effects?
Causes government policies, big business,
corruption, social injustice,
globalization, etc! 1 effects roads, logging,
poverty, unsustainable agriculture, etc! 2
effects loss of bio- and cultural diversity,
global warming, soil water deterioration,
etc!
What is Avança Brasil?
Multi-billion and totally devastating development
project for the whole Brazilian Amazon!
What are the alternatives currently discussed?
Reserves, parks, hotspots, ecotourism, C-funds,
intensified agric., social justice, etc!
56
References
Angelsen, A. and S. Wunder. 2002. Exploring the
Poverty Forest Link Key Concepts, Issues, and
Research Implications. CIFOR, Indonesia (draft
17.05.02). Brosset, A., P. Charles-Dominque, A.
Cockle, J-F. Cosson, and D. Masson. 1996. Bat
Communities and Deforestation in French Guiana.
Canadian J. Zoology 74 1976-1982. Bryant, D., D.
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58

• According to its designer
• This is a juicy, environmentally friendly
  chicken!!!
• It produces more proteins in warm climate!!!
• It requires less energy at the slaughter house
  !!!!

• The Institute for the Future (Menlo Parks, CA)
  recently made an analysis of possible advances in
  21th century technologies (Saffo et al. 2002).
• Some new RD pathways were
• cognitronics where supercomputers instruct your
  TV to show the ads you like,
• genomics where cloned kids need dialysis due to
  rapidly aging organs
• biofuels and the advancement of genetically
  improved kudzu-like superweeds that may
  strain underground aquifers.
• Quote Todays battles over oil could become
  tomorrows water wars.

Wrap-up
The big Q is then Will more deforestation make
more wars?