Global Aerosol Forecasting System

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Global Aerosol Forecasting System Applications to
Houston/Costa Rica Aura Validation Experiments
Arlindo da Silva Global Modeling and Assimilation
Office, Code 610.1 Peter Colarco Atmospheric
Chemistry and Dynamics Branch, Code 613.3
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• Goals
• Incorporate state of the art aerosol and
  chemistry packages into the GEOS-5 global climate
  model and data assimilation system
• Provide to the NASA and wider science community
  chemical weather forecasts
• Forecasts produced in same modeling framework
  used to support funded investigations of aerosol
  effects on climate and assimilation of A-Train
  aerosol products
• Aerosol/Chemistry packages are ESMF components
  integrated into MAP modeling environment

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• Aerosols
• Developed an implementation of the GOCART aerosol
  module for major tropospheric aerosol species

Collaborator Mian Chin, Code 613.3
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• CO and CO2
• Implemented modules for CO and CO2 forecasting
  capability based on Code 613.3 PCTM
• CO
• sources from fossil fuel, biofuel, and biomass
  burning
• chemical production from NMHC and CH4 oxidation,
  chemical loss to OH oxidation
• oxidants for chemistry based on GEOS-CHEM/GMI and
  CMDL GLOBALVIEW-CH4
• CO2
• sources from biosphere, ocean, and fossil fuel
  following Transcom 3 protocol, and biomass burning

Collaborators Huisheng Bian, Randy Kawa, Code
613.3
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• Biomass Burning Emissions
• QFED Daily biomass burning emissions of
  aerosols, CO, CO2, and SO2
• Real-time MODIS firecounts from Aqua and Terra

• Emission factors calibrated against Global Fire
  Emission Database (GFED)

QFED
Collaborators Jim Collatz, Code 614.4, Mian
Chin, Tom Kucsera, Code 613.3
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• Chemical Forecasts
• Aerosols, CO, and CO2 currently transported
  on-line in current GEOS-4 global climate model
• Same modules can also be run in GMAOs next
  generation GEOS-5 system
• Depending on mission requirements other packages
  are available, e.g, full stratospheric chemistry
  as used for PAVE
• GMI combined tropospheric/stratospheric chemistry
  modules under integration (with SIVO)
• Model is run in global domain, 1 x 1.25
  horizontal resolution, 55 vertical levels
  extending to 85 km
• GEOS-5 version will be run at 0.5o resolution
• 5-day forecasts run twice daily at 0Z and 12Z
  with atmospheric state from GMAOs First Look
  Data Assimilation System

Collaborators GMAO Operations Group
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Aura Validation Experiment Support
http//code613-3.gsfc.nasa.gov/People/Colarco/CRAV
E Please also see the HyperWall display in
the Back, soon in the Bldg. 33 Lobby!
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Aura Validation Experiment Products

• Forecast animations of aerosol optical thickness
  and tracer mixing ratios
• Forecast and analysis static plots of aerosol
  optical thickness and tracer mixing ratio
• Vertical cross-section curtain plots of tracer
  mixing ratio along north-south and east-west
  flight trajectories

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Model Evaluation

• Analysis of CRAVE mission data is preliminary

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Model Evaluation

• Analysis of CRAVE mission data is preliminary
• Aerosols are being compared to previous off-line
  GOCART runs
• GOCART is run at 2º x 2.5º resolution with GEOS-3
  meteorology

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Model Evaluation
September 2000 (SAFARI-2000) Monthly Mean AOT

• Analysis of CRAVE mission data is preliminary
• Aerosols are being compared to previous off-line
  GOCART runs
• Aerosols are being compared to AERONET and MODIS
  datasets
• Sampling of model and satellite data in a
  consistent manner is important for comparison

MODIS
GEOS-4 unsampled
GEOS-4 sampled like MODIS
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Data Assimilation
Weaver et al., 2006, JAS, in review

• MODIS Assimilation
• 1D-Var assimilation of radiances (MODIS/OMI)
• Observation bias corrections and source defect
  estimated by means of forecast bias estimates
• Combined MODIS/OMI Assimilation
• Improve estimation of absorption by using OMI
  UV/Visible channels
• 1D-Var assimilation of MODIS and OMI radiances
• Monitoring of OMI radiances and assimilated
  aerosol fields

GOCART Analysis AOT
AERONET AOT
Collaborators Clark Weaver, Omar Torres, Amelia
Colarco, Code 613.3
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Future Directions

• Continue support for other NASA missions INTEX,
  AMMA
• Funded and proposed work for data assimilation of
  MODIS, OMI, SAGE,CALIPSO, GLAS, etc., radiance
  and aerosol products
• Pending ROSES/DECISIONS proposal for GFS-GOCART
• This project will give NCEP aerosol forecasting
  capabilities
• Funded work under MAP for incorporation of
  aerosol and cloud microphysics for improved
  aerosol composition, direct effect, and indirect
  effect estimations

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GEOS-4 Model Description

• 1.25 x 1 horizontal, 32 vertical levels
• GSFC dynamical core and assimilated meteorology
• NCAR physics
• GOCART aerosols dust (5 bins), seasalt (5 bins),
• sulfate, organic and black carbon

GSFC
Capo Verde
Mongu
Model /- 1? AERONET /- 1?