Changing Climate on America

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Changing Climate on Americas Energy Coast

• Denise J. Reed
• University of New Orleans
• Robert R. Twilley
• Louisiana State University

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IPCC 2007
Thanks to Brendan Yuill, University of New Orleans
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Current climate varies across the area
especially in terms of precipitation
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Global increase in temperatures in the future -
range associated with variations among models
and uncertainty regarding future development
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Effects of inland changes are felt at the coast
through change in runoff
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Variation across the Gulf Coast and throughout
the year
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Precipitation is more variable globally
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Precipitation predictions show increase and
decrease
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Location Period Precipitation (in) Change (from 2000) Change (from 2000)
Location Period 2000 2050 2099
Gulf Coast Average Dec, Jan, Feb 11.7 -2.2 -8.3
Gulf Coast Average June, July, Aug 11.5 9.9 10.4
Gulf Coast Average Annual 48.2 -1.6 -2.1

Nueces Dec, Jan, Feb 4.4 -0.5 -15.3
Nueces June, July, Aug 6.7 13.6 11.3
Nueces Annual 26.7 0.8 -3.8

Trinity Dec, Jan, Feb 11.9 0.3 -5.4
Trinity June, July, Aug 9.2 16.5 13.1
Trinity Annual 47.3 -3.1 -3.5

Mobile Dec, Jan, Feb 16.8 -2.5 -4.6
Mobile June, July, Aug 13.0 3.9 11.7
Mobile Annual 57.2 -0.6 3.0
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Runoff (in) Change (from 2000) Change (from 2000)
2000 2050 2099
Gulf Coast Avg. - -20 -29
Nueces River, TX 1.0 0 -3
Trinity River, TX 6.4 -27 -37
Mobile River, AL 20.2 -11 -14
River runoff likely decreases in the future due
change in precipitation and increased
temperatures that increase evapotranspiration
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Station Name Station Name SLR Length of Record
    in/yr yrs
Dauphin Island, AL Dauphin Island, AL 0.12 32
Grand Isle, LA Grand Isle, LA 0.39 53
Eugene Island, LA Eugene Island, LA 0.38 36
Sabine Pass, TX Sabine Pass, TX 0.26 42
Galveston I, TX Galveston I, TX 0.26 92
Galveston II, TX Galveston II, TX 0.29 43
Freeport, TX Freeport, TX 0.23 46
Rockport, TX Rockport, TX 0.18 52
Port Mansfield, TX Port Mansfield, TX 0.08 35
Padre Island, TX Padre Island, TX 0.14 37
Port Isabel, TX Port Isabel, TX 0.13 56
Relative sea level rise is already a problem
based on 20th century data
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Historical rates Historical with eustatic
increased to 0.12 in/yr (3mm/yr) Historical with
eustatic increased to 0.20 in/yr (5mm/yr) by
2099 Historical with eustatic increased to 0.43
in/yr (11mm/yr) by 2099 (estimated max. rate
from last deglaciation)
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Summary

• Regional mean annual temperatures will increase
  by over 1 C by 2050 and near a 3 C increase by
  2099 - increase only varying spatially by
  approximately 0.1 C.
• Precipitation will likely become more seasonal -
  summer months will receive a higher of the
  rainfall, winter months will receive less.
• The effect of climate change on runoff is
  uncertain, suggestion that the total amount of
  runoff will be significantly altered.
• Sea-level rise will vary spatially - rates higher
  than the global mean due to the active subsidence
  processes. Range 8 in to 5 ft by 2099.
• Climate change will likely cause an increase in
  the of storms that develop into large
  hurricanes and an increase in overall storm
  intensity gt increase the threat of flooding and
  storm related damage to coastal communities and
  infrastructure.