Presentazione di PowerPoint

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National Risk Assessment - Evidence Base
for Proper Planning
Dr. Jianping YAN, GRIP/UNDP Geneva March 31, 2009
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Topics

• Purposes and Objectives
• Scope and Context
• Main Activities
• Key Results
• Implementation
• Supports from GRIP

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• Purposes and Objectives
• National DRR strategies
• National planning ? development programs and
  investments
• Budget and resource allocation
• Users/Beneficiaries
• National authorities
• National institutions and agencies
• International Organizations

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Development
Disaster Management
Strategic planning
Risk management
Policy making
Contingency planning
Disaster preparedness
Regulation
Risk Knowledge
Disaster response
Infrastructure protection
Disaster recovery
Engineering design
Insurance
Education
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Scope Multi-hazard

• Geological Hazards
• Earthquake (primary) 1150,000
• Landslides (secondary) 150,000
• Hydro-meteorological Hazards
• Floods scale 1150,000
• Drought scale 1150,000 or smaller
• Tropical Cyclones scale 1100,000

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Mayon Mudflow Disaster, Philippines
Mayon Volcano the most active volcano in
Philippines, 150 miles south of Manila, gt 2400
meters (8,000 feet) tall.
Recent eruption February 28, 2006
Typhoon Durian Nov. 30, 2006 Torrential
rains? Mudslides ? Death Toll gt1000 Houses
destroyed 66,191 buried houses
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• Lesson learnt from Mayon Mudflow Disaster,
  Philippines
• Disaster preparedness based on multi-hazards
  assessment
• Hazard assessment from a systems perspective.

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Scope Multi-sectoral exposure

• Population urban, rural (age, gender, income)
• Buildings residential, commercial, industrial,
  public
• Livelihoods industry, agriculture, tourism
• Critical facilities health system, schools,
  governmental, police, fire stations
• Lifelines roads, bridges, airports, ports,
  railways, sewage, telecommunications, power, etc

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Main Activities - Overview

• Step 1 Country situation analysis
• Step 2 Hazard assessment
• Step 3 Exposure assessment
• Step 4 Vulnerability assessment
• Step 5 Risk estimation and profiling
• Step 6 Identification of high-risk areas
• Step 7 Identification of risk treatment measures

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Main Activities - Tasks

• Step 1 Situation Analysis
• Comprehensive inventory of existing data and
  studies
• Integration of existing studies
• Gap and needs identification
• Step 2 Hazard Assessment
• Identification of sources (active seismic faults,
  cyclone track patterns, precipitation patterns)
• Identification of hazard-prone areas based on
  historic data
• Characterization of hazards (in terms of
  probability and intensity)
• Development of probabilistic hazard zones and
  event intensity maps (return periods 25, 50,
  100, 200, 500 years)
• Development of composite hazard zones
  (multi-hazards)

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Main Activities - Tasks

• Step 3 Exposure Assessment
• Categorization of exposed elements at risk
  (population, infrastructure, livelihoods,
  critical facilities lifelines)
• Exposure surface models using dasymetric mapping
  methods or RADIUS approach
• Step 4 Vulnerability Assessment
• Compilation of vulnerability functions for all
  the categories of elements at risk (based on
  historic damage patterns)
• Comprehensive damage-loss algorithms for each
  category of elements at risk

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Main Activities - Tasks

• Step 5 Risk Estimation and Profiling
• Probable maximum losses (PMLs) (return periods
  25, 50, 100, 200, 500 years)
• Risk expressed in terms of human impact
  (mortality) and financial impact (absolute value
  and fraction of GNP)
• Risk aggregation to district or county level
• Risk profiling by hazard, district, return period
  
• Thematic risk profiles (social, productive,
  infrastructure)
• Composite risk profiles (multi-hazard) for
  relevant return periods

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Main Activities - Tasks

• Step 6 Identification of high-risk areas
• Loss/impact type
• Hazard
• Step 7 Identification of risk management
  measures
• Risks to avoidance, reduction, transfer,
  retention (preparedness)
• Cost-effective analysis

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Key Results

• A comprehensive national disaster risk profile
  including national risk atlas
• A set of sound DRR measures
• National standards and methodologies
• A National Risk Information System
• Risk assessment results are readily available in
  real-time to all potential users
• Local capacity development
• Capacity development at district level
• Understanding and application of risk assessment
  results

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Information Product Samples
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Probabilistic Hazard Zoning Maps
Return Period 500 yrs
Return Period 1000 yrs
Return Period 2000 yrs
Sources Grunthal et. al., 2006
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Probabilistic Hazard Zoning Maps
Sources GNS, 2003
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Probabilistic Event Intensity Maps
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Probabilistic Event Intensity Maps
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Probabilistic Event Intensity Maps (Water depth)
Sources Grunthal et. al., 2006
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Low-resolution exposure modeling RADIUS method
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High-resolution exposure modeling Dysametric
method
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Development of vulnerability functions
Vulnerability curves for typical building
types (Sauter and Shah, 1978)
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Development of recovery functions
Damage functions for Water Treatment Plants
(ATC-25)
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High-risk areas identified by hazards
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Probabilistic Risk Curve
Disaster
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Probabilistic risk maps
Sources Grunthal et. al., 2006
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Probabilistic risk maps
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Risk Management Options
Measures
Category
Policy, regulations, land use planning
Risk Avoidance/ prevention
Technical Measures, preparedness
Risk Reduction
Total original risk
Insurance
Risk Transfer
Tolerable risk level
Living with Risk with or Without caution
Risk Acceptance/ tolerance
Acceptable risk level
Residual risk
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Implementation

• How long will it take?
• 24 months
• Who implements NRA?
• National working group under supervision of
  relevant national authorities and with extensive
  supports from Multi-stakeholders

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Implementation Work Plan
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Implementation Governance
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Supports from GRIP

• Technical support and advice
• Methodologies and tools, training, proposal
  preparation, project development, etc.
• Coordination and overview
• Interaction with other countries
• Access to financial assistance

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Sharing of experiences

• Other countries are doing similar work
• Mozambique, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Armenia, Belize,
  Ecuador
• Integration at regional level
• Compatible results (same methodology)
• Development of regional DRR strategies
• Contribution to Global Risk Update

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Summary

• NRA aims to support national decision/policy
  makers to shape national DRR strategy and action
  plans
• NRA should be multi-hazard, and comparable and
  aggregatable
• NRA is a 7-step process
• An integrated governance and coordination
  mechanism is highly essential to the success of a
  NRA exercise.