Development of Resource Use Intensity A Retrospective Approach to Draft Scenarios

1
Development of Resource Use IntensityA
Retrospective Approach to Draft Scenarios
Dominic Wittmer Thomas Lichtensteiger ETH
Zurich Swiss Federal Institute of
Technology and Eawag Swiss Federal Institute
of Aquatic Science and Technology
2
Motivation

• Observation
• historical transfer of mineral resources
• extraction out of geosphere
• accumulation in anthroposphere

Projected consequence today anthropogenic
stocks are the raw materials of tomorrow

• Findings on urban deposits
• knowledge about is limited and random
• lack of methods for their exploration
  especially the trace elements

3
Motivation

• Characteristics
• plasticity
• electr. conductivity
• therm. conductivity
• warm colour
• alloyability
• recyclability

• Observation
• historical transfer of mineral resources
• extraction out of geosphere
• accumulation in anthroposphere

Projected consequence today anthropogenic
stocks are the raw materials of tomorrow

• Findings on urban deposits
• knowledge about is limited and random
• lack of methods for their exploration
  especially the trace elements

4
Methodical Procedure

SUBSTANCE FLOW ANALYSIS

characterising
SURVEY OF THE STOCKS
RECORDING
growth curves
DYNAMIC MODELLING (SFA)
scenarios
5
Driving and driven Perception of the
Metabolism
consequence
flow-driven approach
NEEDS
demand for products
demand for products
FLOWS
STOCKS
stock-driven approach
consequence
6
System Analysis Regional copper management
7
Survey of the Stocks Buildings
8
Structuring the Copper Stock in
BuildingsRelevant Application Ranges and
affiliated Product Groups
AR Application Ranges PG Product Groups
Power systems Power cables
Telecommunication systems Telecommunication cables
Water systems Water pipes Fittings Raw armatures
Heating systems Heating pipes Fittings Raw armatures
Roofs Roofing Cladding of dormer windows Gutters and down pipes Lightning conductors
9
Survey of the Stocks Buildings

• Definition and determination of key sizes (per
  product group)
• installation density
• specific mass
• copper concentration
• frequency of products
• frequency of the material (Cu)

10
Utilisation types age classes
yr of construction/renovation

• partial stock withinthe building stock
• 4 utilisation types
• 4 age classes (per quarter)
• 14 product groups

main stock referencing parameter (density) substance massper functional unit frequencies
Buildings ID(reference area) specific mass cCu fM fP
Infrastructure NDA or NDEW specific mass - fM -
Movables - (-) specific mass cCu - fP
11
Copper Stocks in Buildings per Application
Rangegiven in kg/capita rounded, divided into
the four utilisation types, 2000
roofs (32)
PRB
OFB
6
8
OFB one-family buildings MFB multi-family
buildings SB service buildings PRB production
buildings
SB
6
MFB
12
sanitary systems (9)
heating systems (13)
power systems (24)
PRB
SB
lt1
OFB
PRB
2
PRB
3
1
6
OFB
MFB
SB
OFB
2.5
6
1.5
5
SB
MFB
MFB
9
6
4
12
Copper Stocks in Infrastructure per Application
Rangegiven in kg/capita, 2000
cables
telecommunication network
electricity network
74 kg/capita
16 kg/capita
88 kg/capita
traffic
2 kg/capita
transformers
5 kg/capita
overhead power wires
9 kg/capita
13
Copper stock development shown by the example of
one-family buildings
80
copper stock
in 1000 t
70
60
50
40
30
I
20
II
10
III
0
IV
IV
III
Elektroinstallation
II
Telekommunikation
Quartale 25 a
I
Heizungsinstallation
Sanitärinstallation
Dachgaupen
Blitzableiter
Dachentwässerung
Bedachung/Abdeckung
product groups
14
results Stock Development
Temporal Variability of the Frequency of Copper
(fM)Example heating pipes in panel heating,
given in market share
copper
cuprotherm
Source expert interviews (SELM 2002) and
technical literature.
15
180
180'000
Foreign Trade of
Historical foreign trade statisticsData used
for calibration of dynamic model
Inhabitants
Copper Goods
160
160'000
1'000
1'000 t/a
140
140'000
120
120'000
Imports
100
100'000
80
80'000
Exports
60
60'000
40
40'000
20
20'000
Population
0
0
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000

• Net Addition to Stock, 20th century
• (incl. landfill)
• rising from 1 to gt10 kg/capitaa
• now decoupling ?

13
Per-Capita
12
Net Imports of
11
Copper Goods
10
kg/(capitaa)
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
16
Copper Household of Switzerland, 2000Results of
the dynamic modelling
2000
1975
1950
1925
1900
original system 56 system variables, 45 system
parameters
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results System
Copper Household of Switzerland
1950
results of the dynamic modelling snapshots in
the 20th century
1900
Net Addition to Stock, per (capitaa)
2000 1950 1900
Movables 0.6 0.2 0.1
Infrastructure 0.6 1.0 0.8
Buildings 1.1 0.6 0.2
Total 2.3 1.8 1.1
2000
Movables 0.6
Infrastructure 0.6
Buildings 1.1
Total 2.3
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discussion Scenario (I)
Influence of Building Conversion on the Copper
HouseholdScenario production buildings (PB) ?
multi-family buildings (MFB)
400
318'000 t
351'000 t
stock 1'000 t
(PB MFB)
300
roofs sanitary systems heating systems telecomm.sy
stems power systems
200
100
0
"Status
Szenario
quo"
Ia
gross floor area (GFA) roofage area (RA) given in
106 m2
261 118
PB GFA RA
Conversion
675 252
414 134
MFB GFA RA
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discussion Scenario(I)
Copper Household of Switzerland, 2000Scenario
induced stock changes and flows, respectively
stock change
80
1'000 t
input
76
output
60
47
45
40
pipes andraw armatures
cables
sheets
31
25
20
7
0
roofs
heatingwatersystems
elec.telec.systems
20
discussion Dynamic Model
Growth Curves of the Stocksgiven in kg/capita
stocks in buildings (total)
linear-logistic
inorganic resources, incl. deposits
environmental compartments
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Consequences
100
30-50

• self supply will about double within next
  100yrs
• use losses to landfill will generally
  correlate with stock size
• avg. life time immovabels 4020 a, movables
  147a
• prolongation (violet) 6020 a, movables 207a
• shortening (turqois) 3010 a, movables 107a

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Comparison of Total Copper Stock for Selected
Regions
CH
USA, 1990
290
Stockholm, 1995
170
Sweden, 1999
140
Cape Town
South Africa
(
)
,
2000
50
Welt, 2000
50
Welt, 1950
14
stocks
kg/capita
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
N.B. Stocks in landfills not considered for
Stockholm and Schweden, grey area for US.
Sources USA (Zeltner et al. 1999) Stockholm
(Sörme et al. 2001) Schweden (Landner und
Lindeström 1998) Cape Town (van Beers und
Graedel 2003) Welt 2000 (Lichtensteiger 2002)
Welt 1950 (Henstock 1996).
23
Regional Comparison of Copper Stock in Buildings
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Conclusions

• Urban exploration by combination of SFA,
  survey of stocks and retrospective modelling
• Methodical results indicate that stock-driven
  approach are adequate for understanding and
  forecasts of long-living goods

Outlook

• Application of the exploration method on other
  substances
• Drafts for a Zinc model are planned with
  methodical
• emphasis on comparison between elements and
  countries

25
Development of Resource Use IntensityA
Retrospective Approach to Draft Scenarios
Dominic Wittmer Thomas Lichtensteiger ETH Zurich
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology and
Eawag Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic
Science and Technology
Contact address Dominic Wittmer
d.wittmer_at_csd.ch CSD Holding AG,
Switzerland Division of Environmental Geology,
Contaminated Sites and Waste Deposits