EAST ASIA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVANCED FORECAST GUIDANCE PROJECT

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EAST ASIA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVANCED FORECAST
GUIDANCE PROJECT

• Proposed International Program Under Both
  WWRP/THORPEX and TMRP
• At the WMO TC Landfall Process Workshop
• In Macao, March 2005

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The purpose of this program

• To extend the lead time for tropical cyclone
  forecasts
• To provide probabilistic forecasts with the new
  THORPEX synthetic forecast system through
  enhancing the links and efforts of both
  WWRP/THORPEX and TMRP projects.
• Three key components Targeting Observations,
  Data Assimilation, and TC-TIGGE.

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Targeting Observations

• No field experiments have been done for tropical
  cyclones in Asia.
• We are developing the wet version of the adjoint
  system, to apply for the intermittent convective
  clouds and circulation
• This project will focus on a special field
  program
• East Asian Special Typhoon EXperiment
  (hopefully in 2008), which will be coordinated
  with several other observational efforts, such as
  DOTSTAR, Wx Scout, KEOP and China TC landfall
  program.

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Trajectories of all driftsonds released from
Pohnpei and Wake Island from 6/18 to 6/30 2004 at
three altitudes (19500 m, 18000 m, and 16500 m)
(Courtesy by Dr. W.-C. Lee)
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Typhoon Mindulle (2004) dropsonde distribution on
6/24 and 6/26 2004, driftsondes were released
once a day beginning at 6/18/2004
Color represents the launch date, symbols
represent the launch site
(Courtesy by Dr. W.-C. Lee)
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