RICE TRENDS IN AFRICA

1
RICE TRENDS IN AFRICA

• Thailand Rice Convention 2009
• Bangkok

2
The World Is Eating More Rice
MMT

• The World Consumption has grown from 156 MMT to
  440 MMT over the last 48 years
• Rice Consumption has grown THREE times in the
  last 5 decades

Source PSD USDA
3
However in Africa
Africa Rice Consumption 000 MT
ROW Consumption 000 MT

• Consumption increased from 3.3 MMT to 22 MMT over
  last 5 decades.
• Rest of the World grew from 153MMT to 418 MMT

AFRICA CONSUMPTION GREW 7 FOLD OVER LAST 5 DECADES
Source PSD USDA
4
Importance of Rice in the food basket

• Growing Importance of Rice in the African Food
  Basket
• Africa is the only major consumption region which
  is growing at a fast pace

• Rice calorie supply as percentage of total
  calorie supply by geographical region

Source World Rice Statistics, IRRI
5
Rice Consumption Per Capita

• Doubling of Per Capita consumption in Africa
• World Increase-only 32

Source FAO Database
6
Africa Key Drivers of Rice Consumption

• Population Growth
• Demographics
• Urbanization, Tastes Preferences
• Growth in Economically active Female population

7
Population Growth in Africa

• African Population has grown by 300 over the
  last 50 years
• African Population is projected to grow by
  another 35 by 2020-Fastest growing region in the
  world

Growth in Total Population (1960-2006)
Source FAO Database
8
Urbanization in Africa

• Growth in Urbanization in Africa (over 500)
  outstrips rest of the world (200)
• The degree of correlation between urbanization
  and rice consumption is 0.996 for Africa
• This trend is expected to continue in the future

Growth in Urban Population (1960-2006)
Source FAO Database
9
Urbanization Projections (2005100)

• By 2030 the Urban Population in Africa should
  grow by 65 compared to 28 in the world.
• By factor of correlation alone the rice
  consumption in Africa should increase by another
  12 MMT if other factors remain unchanged

Source FAO Database
10
Economically Active Female Population in Africa

• In the last five decades the Economically Active
  female Population has grown by 200 in Africa
• This has also spurred an increase in Rice
  consumption which is easier to cook and store
  compared to the traditional foods.

Growth in Economically Active Female Population
(1960-2006)
Source FAO Database
11
Population growth coupled with the doubling of
per capita consumption places Africa amongst the
fastest growing rice eating regions in the world
12

• Rice Production in Africa

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Local Rice Production
Africa Rice Production MMT
ROW Production MMT

• Local rice Production has increased from 7.9 MMT
  to 14.7 MMT in the last 20 years
• Rice Production in Africa has grown at a CAGR of
  over 3 since 1990, compared to the rest of the
  world CAGR of 1

Source PSD Online
14
Rice Production

• A Combination of
• Area harvested under the crop
• Yield

15
Area harvested under Rice

• The Growth in the Total Area harvested under Rice
  in Africa (31) dwarfs the growth in the World
  (6)

Growth in Area Harvested under Rice (1990-2009)
Source PSD Online
16
Africa Yield (Rough Rice)

• At 3.3 MT/Ha the yield in Africa is half that of
  the world average
• In the last 15 years this yield growth in Africa
  has been negligible.
• The yield gap is wide and increasing

Growth in Paddy Yield in MT/Ha (1995-2009)

• Rice production in Africa has grown only on
  account of an increase in the Harvested Area

Source PSD Online
17
Perspectives on Rice Production in Africa

• Agricultural Production is essentially a function
  of the Return the farmer gets on his investment

• Cost of Production

• Producer Price

Yield

• Input Cost
• Credit
• Irrigation
• Technology
• Seeds Fertilizers

• Market Support
• Access
• Support Price
• Credit

• Quality Mgmt
• Outturn
• Wastage
• Milled Quality

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Limitations to Yield
Average Yield in MT/Ha under different Ecosystems
(1969-1999)

• Increase in yield mainly from Irrigated
  Ecosystems
• Rainfed Ecosystem is the dominant variety in
  Africa
• Significant efforts underway to improve farm
  productivity farmer income

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Inputs and Infrastructure

• Significant improvements in infrastructure and
  inputs will be required to improve the yields in
  Africa

Source Compendium of Agricultural-Environmental
Indicators 1989-91-2000-2001, FAO Database
20
Key issues

• Increasing Irrigation
• Infrastructural Investments
• Financial support for investments
• Consistent Policy environments
• Pro farmer policies e.g. Support price
• Social and political Stability
• Production Quality Management
• Technology transfer application

• Stakeholders response to these key issues will
  determine the future of Rice production in Africa

21
Africa Demand Supply Gap

• Africa Consumes 5 of the World Rice Production
  but produces lt 3. This gap has grown over the
  last 5 decades and has fuelled the world rice
  trade
• With the increase in Population, Urbanization and
  the changes in tastes and preferences this
  Consumption will only grow

22
Projections 2020

• On a Straight line addition of all the factors
  the increase in consumption may be from 18 MMT in
  2005 to 38 MMT in 2020 in Africa

23
Africa 2020 Projected Gap
GAP 17.5 MMT
38.0
MMT
20.5