POL 201: Intro' To American Politics

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POL 201 Intro. To American Politics

• Professor Casey Klofstad

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Last Time Political Parties

• Parties like-minded people trying to control the
  government by winning office
• Realignment rare large-scale shifts in publics
  Party ID
• Parties Today a DE-aligned system of
  (relatively) weak parties
• So What? parties help democracy, but sometimes
  at a cost

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Lecture 12 Electoral Politics

• Presidential elections
• Congressional elections House and Senate
• Role of money in campaigns
• Do campaigns matter?
• Do elections produce a representative government?

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Nominating Presidential Candidates

• Past controlled by the parties
• Today primaries and caucuses
• candidates from same party run against each other
  in pre-elections to select the partys nominee
• so, voters choose the nominee instead of party
  bosses

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Presidential Primaries So What?

• Is this more democratic because voters choose?
• YES, but
• primary voters are unrepresentative (i.e., they
  are more ideological)

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Distribution of Ideology in the US
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Presidential Primaries So What?

• More democratic (voters choose)?
• YES, but
• primary voters are unrepresentative
• ALSO
• campaign season is too long turns off voters
• front-loaded system
• more money, more problems

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The Electoral College (EC)

• Each state has electoral votes
• votes number of Senate and House seats
• To win the EC, you need a majority of the 538
  electoral votes
• Most states are winner-take-all
• winner of popular vote can lose EC
• advantages the large states

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Trends in Presidential Elections

• Republican dominance since 1968
• war favors the Republicans
• 1990s Clinton during peacetime
• 2000s VERY close elections
• indication of partisan dealignment

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Congressional Nominations

• House and Senate also use primaries
• Open Seats attract many primary candidates

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How Are House Districts Made?

• A census is taken every 10 years
• House seats redistributed among the states based
  on shifts in population
• States re-draw the district Lines
• power left to the states, with some federal
  requirements
• potential for gerrymandering

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Incumbency Advantage in the US Congress
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Ave. Number of Terms Served in the US Congress
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Why Incumbency Advantage?

• Party decline
• we use incumbency as a shortcut in voting (e.g.,
  name recognition)
• Constituency service
• helping w/ bureaucracy pork projects
• Resources of the office technology
• staff, mailing privileges, travel, etc.
• Strategic challengers

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Incumbency Advantage is Weaker in the Senate

• Elections are state-wide
• so, the constituency is more diverse and harder
  to please
• More media coverage and more information on
  candidates
• Better challengers
• Senate is a better prize than House

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Total Cost of US Elections
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Costly Campaigns So What?

• Candidate bias?
• especially in presidential primaries
• The Permanent Campaign
• line between governance and campaigning has
  become blurry
• Source bias?
• where does all of this money come from?

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Campaign Finance Sources Presidential Elections
Soft Money unlimited and unregulated funds
given indirectly to candidates through the parties
POST 2002 Soft money was banned in 2002
(McCain-Feingold). BUT politicians and groups
always seen to find a way to get around campaign
finance laws (e.g., 527 groups).
Hard Money funds given directly to candidates
that are regulated and limited by the government
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Do Campaigns Matter?

• Q If party ID and incumbency determine
  elections, do campaigns matter?
• A YES, on the margins
• turnout
• matter more in primaries (cant use party as a
  shortcut when voting)

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Women and Minorities Serving in the US Congress
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Why Fewer Minorities in Congress?

• Overt biases, prejudice, etc
• Ramifications of past discrimination
• past discrimination made it hard for women and
  minorities to run in the past
• without past experience, women and minorities are
  less likely to run for office

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Representation

• Substantive
• people in office share my views
• Descriptive
• people in office look like me, and because of
  that they share my views

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Majority-Minority Districts

• District where a minority group makes up the
  majority of the population
• How do we get these?
• 1982 amendments to the 1965 Voting Rights Act

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Women and Minorities Serving in the US Congress
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Different District Lines Can Yield Different
Results
Scenario 1 3 competitive districts
Scenario 2 2 Rep. and 1 Dem.
REPUBLICAN VOTERS
DEMOCRAT VOTERS
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Majority-Minority Districting So What?

• Less representation because of increased
  Republican power?
• Do all members of a racial group think the same?
• e.g., difference between Hispanics
• What groups need majority-minority districts?

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POL 201 Intro. To American Politics

• Professor Casey Klofstad