2nd Demography Report Key Findings And Messages

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2nd Demography Report Key Findings And
Messages

• European Commission
• Directorate-General for Employment, Social
  Affairs and Equal Opportunities
• Unit E1 demography and social analysis

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Update on current trends

• Future demographic change population decline and
  ageing
• Three drivers births, deaths and migration
• The latest Eurostat projection expects an
  increase of 10 Million people by the year 2060
  (from 495 to 506)
• Both projections expect ageing, in the 2008
  projection the median age goes from 40.4 in 2008
  to 47.9 in 2060

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Population Structurein 2008 and 2060
Source Eurostat, Convergence Scenario,
EUROPOP2008
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Change in age structure plus regional population
decline

• The baby boom, which peaked forty years ago is
  working its way through the pyramid
• Ageing at the bottom versus ageing at the top
• Great diversity of trends across the EU
• Growing or stable population in North and West
  Europe, move towards a pillar shape that results
  from birth rates closer to the replacement level
• At times shrinking population in Middle and East
  Europe
• But population decline in many regions all over
  Europe, leading to large imbalances

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Assumed Fertility Rates by 2060
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Assumed life expectancy by 2060
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Cumulative net migration flows in population on
1 jan 2061
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March 2005 Green Paper

• Confronting demographic change a new solidarity
  between the generations (COM(2005)94)
• Series of new key questions allowing for
  mitigation
• Tackling low birth rates, how to respond to
  postponement
• Contribution of immigration, but what about
  integration
• life cycle approach avoid the rush hour in
  life, material desires can be postponed but not
  fertility (35!!)
• What should happen to the retirement age
• Role of and support to older people
• Role of the EU
• Around 250 replies, among them most Member States
• New consensus fertility is matter of public
  concern
• Success with the Lisbon strategy is necessary
  condition to prepare our societies for ageing

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Towards an integrated, holistic policy response

• Commission adopts communication on "The
  demographic future of Europe - from challenge to
  opportunity", 12 October 2006, COM(2006)571
• From alarmism to confidence building
• ageing presented as a positive social development
• the EU is capable of tackling the challenge
• Good news, still 15-year window of opportunity
• Net employment growth possible up to 2025
• Thanks to increasing employment rates

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Opportunities in five key policy areas

• 1/ Promoting demographic renewal in Europe by
  creating conditions that allow Europeans to have
  the number of children they wish
• 2/ Promoting employment growthmeaning more jobs
  and longer working lives of better quality
• 3/ Promoting a more productive and dynamic
  Europenotably by seizing the opportunities of
  the silver economy, and optimising skills at
  all ages
• 4/ Receiving and integrating immigrantsin
  response to labour market needs
• 5/ Ensuring sustainable public financesto
  guarantee adequate social protection in the
  future

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1/ demographic renewal

• Europeans want more children then they are
  currently having, on average 2 versus 1.5
• Clear dichotomy, South, East plus DE and AT with
  a TFR below 1.5, versus West and North above 1.7
• Postponement is the dominant trend,
  reconciliation policies enable timely catching
  up, without these policies we see cancellation
• Clear correlation between female employment/
  gender equality and fertility
• Countries which have best adapted themselves to
  the rise in female education have the highest
  fertility rates
• Much scope for policy improvement (childcare,
  family benefits and working hours flexibility)

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2/ promote growth and jobs

• Unemployment currently at lowest level in decades
• Scope for more employment growth until 2025
• Thereafter growth can only be achieved through
  increased productivity
• By 2015, Lisbon employment objectives are within
  reach
• Focus on financial incentives is not enough,
  better and healthier working conditions are also
  needed
• Psychological problems have become the main
  reason for sickness and disability in many
  countries

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Population change over previous year, EU 27
Source Eurostat, Convergence Scenario,
EUROPOP2008
European Commission
Directorate-General for Employment, Social
Affairs and Equal Opportunities - Unit E1
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Older people in employment
Source Eurostat, Labour Force Survey
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Employment rates - older workers
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3/ productivity growth and innovation

• Much scope for more investment in human capital
• Invest in pre-school education from the age of
  2.5
• Reduce early school leaving among 16-20 years
  olds
• More people with higher tertiary education are
  needed
• Make sure everybody has access to life-long
  learning
• Avoid staying too long in initial education,
  lowers fertility
• No drop in worker productivity for age-mixed
  teams
• No large drop in productivity for older workers
  who work with modern capital goods
• New market opportunities based on needs and
  purchasing power of senior citizens ('silver
  economy')

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4/ Receiving and integrating migrants

• Europe needs both high and low skilled migrants
  to cover future labour market bottle necks
• But a good mix of the two is needed, so we need
  to be selective, EU is good at attracting low
  skilled migrants
• Main reasons for entering are family
  reunification, labour market needs, and asylum
• New proposal for an EU Blue Card system
• Employment rates of migrants in Southern Europe
  are higher than those of natives, Northern Europe
  opposite
• Children of migrants need special attention in
  education, to avoid structural poverty
  (pre-school education)

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5/ Sustainable public finance and adequate social
protection

• Stability Pact targets, avoid spending too much
  money in the future on servicing the govt debt
• Many reforms have already taken place,
  abolishment of early retirement, in Germany
  gradual increase to 67
• Pensions may not be the main problem, but the
  cost of healthcare determined by unknown
  technology.
• The other unknown is future cost connected to
  long term care, more important role for informal
  care.
• Importance of healthy life styles, socio economic
  gap is about 6 to 7 years !

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Specific focus on older persons1-Older workers
in paid employmenta case for part-time work

• 22.2 of workers aged 55-64 in the EU worked
  part-time
• But unequal take up between men and women aged
  55-64 10.9 vs. 38.3
• The vast majority of older part-time workers
  would not want to work full time

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Older workers in paid employmenta case for
part-time work

• gt 50 of workers aged 65 work part time
• Figures are particularly high in NL, UK, DE, AT,
  FI, SE, DK
• Much less pronounced difference between men and
  women, even if prevalence of part-time working
  still lower among men

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2-Computer literacy of older peoplestill an
obstacle even if progress made

• Internet usage declines sharply with age
• Lack of computer literacy places older people at
  a disadvantage on the labour market
• Positive notes the increase in Internet usage is
  most marked in the older segments
• New cohorts entering higher age brackets are more
  likely to have been exposed to the Internet and
  ICT

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3-Older people, informal helpand volunteering

• Older wish to continue play a part in society
• They are active providers of informal help to
  family members, voluntary work and community
  services
• Wide differences across countries, according to
  cultural habits, and state of social provisions

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Activities of the Commission

• Every two year a Demography Forum, next on Nov
  24-25 accompanied by a demography report
• Government expert group on demographic issues
  focusing on family policies and active ageing
  after retirement, meets three times a year,
  always accompanied by a policy seminar with all
  stakeholders
• Support for the OECD family database, development
  of an evaluation tool for family policies.
• Support for the European Alliance for Families
• Research by DG RTD (SHARE, GGP, Multilinks) and
  DG INFSO
• Conference on dignity of older people and elder
  abuse Feb 2008
• DG REGIO Regions for economic change demography
  network

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Conclusion confidencebut no complacency

• Ageing is the result of positive developments
• increased life expectancy
• easier choice over whether and when to have
  children
• 15-year window of opportunity to prepare for the
  full impact of the ageing baby boom, still time
  left to grow rich before we grow old
• Better reconciliation and gender equality can
  promote fertility
• Workers are capable and interested to work after
  60, given the right financial incentives, and
  provided they maintain their human capital and
  have healthy and satisfying working conditions
  and tools be made available for part time work
• Ageing induced productivity decline can be
  mitigated with experience, education, better
  matching, age-mixed work organisation
• Better integrated of migrants influence public
  opinion in a favourable way
• EU offers a coordinating framework with the
  Lisbon Strategy, the Open Method of Coordination,
  the new government experts group on ageing, but
  it is up to the Member States to act