Xuexi Tie

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Understand and Forecast the Impact of Economical
Development on Air Quality in Shanghai (MIRAGE
Shanghai)
Xuexi Tie xxtie_at_ucar.edu Xu Tang,Fuhai Geng,
and Chunsheng Zhao Shanghai Meteorological
Bureau Atmospheric Chemistry Division/NCAR
Peking University
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(No Transcript)
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Shanghai
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Shanghai is under rapid development
Auto 500 Building 350
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The impacts on environment High Pollutants
around Large Cities
Shanghai
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The worst is not over (yet) !
Richter et al, Increase in tropospheric nitrogen
over China observed from space, Nature, v437,
p129-132, 2005
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Zhao, Tie, Ling, GRL, 2006
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What is the future of Ozone ?? Potential high
ozone ??
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Scientific Objectives

• Understand the current ozone in YRD
• Forecast the future ozone in YRD

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Understand the current ozone in YRD

• Ozone Formation
• Precursors (NOx, VOCs, CO, OH)
• Effectors (aerosols, clouds, ..)
• Products (CH2O, HNO3, PAN)
• Impacts on Economical Development on Ozone
• Industrial Emissions
• Biogenic Emissions
• Impacts of Aerosols on Ozone
• Impacts of Surrounding Areas on Ozone
• Impacts of Meteorology on Ozone

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Field measurements (multi-measurements) (with
ACD/NCAR collaborations MIRAGE-SH)

• Ozone and precursors
• O3, CO, NOx, Anthropogenic VOCs, Biogenic
  VOCs
• OH, HO2, RO2
• (2) The products of oxidation
• Organic carbon products (such as CH2O),
  HNO3, PAN
• NOy
• (3) Radiative parameters
• Aerosols, UV flux, clouds, single albedo
• (4) Meteorological parameters
• By Shanghai By ACD By both

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The Measurement sits




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The current measurement instruments - I (Shanghai
)


(1) Ozone, CO, NOx instruments (2)
Ozone sounding (2) VOC species Canister,
105 Species (3) Radiative instruments
UV (4) Aerosol instruments AOD
Sunphotometer SC Nephelometer
BC - Magee AE31 PM -
GRIMM180(PM1,PM2.5,PM10) (5) lidar
Aerosol profiles


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The current measurement instruments







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The current measurement instruments







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The current measurement instruments - II (US ACD
Universities)


(1) Ozone (2) Nitrogen species
NOx, HONO, HNO3, PAN, TPAN (3) VOC species
On-line measurements of VOCs (PTRMS) (4) Radicals
OH, HO2, RO2 (5) Oxidation products
CH2O, PAN, HNO3 (6) Photolysis rates
JO3, JNO2, . (7) Aerosols
Composition (sulfate, nitrate, .) Size
distributions (from nm to µm)


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Why need more measurements - I (US ACD
Universities)


Understand the NOx/VOCs emission ratio
OH NO2 ? HNO3
(NOx oxidation) OH VOC ?
CH2O (VOC oxidation) OH VOC NOx
? PAN (NOx and VOC oxidation) The
ratios of HNO3/NOy and PAN/NOy are the indicators
of the ratio of NOX/VOC emission


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Why need more measurements - II (US ACD
Universities)


The ratios of HNO3/NOy and PAN/NOy are the
indicators of the ratio NOX/VOC emission


MC (NOx/VOC 0.1)
NY (NOx/VOC0.4)
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Why the ratio of NOx/VOC is important?
NOO3?NO2
NO2hv? O3
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Chemical Models WRF-Chem Model NCAR MM model
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WRF-Chem model
WRF-Chem is a newly developed model has several
advance features, For example (1) Online
coupled dynamical-chemical-aerosol model (In able
to study the feedbacks between climate and
chemistry) (2) Nested model (In able to study in
and out flow round the SH city) (3) Interaction
between aerosols and gas-phase chemistry (In
able to study the effect of aerosols on
ozone
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To address scientific issues

• (1) Contributions from various anthropogenic
  emissions (power
• plants, auto, etc)
• (2) Contributions from anthropogenic and biogenic
  emissions
• (3) Impacts of aerosols on the formation of ozone
• (4) Changes of traffic on ozone formation
  (diurnal, and spatial
• variation (e.g., Weekend effect )

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Ozone Forecasting

• (1) To predict the ozone concentrations
  (validated with measurements
• to improve model)
• (2) To assess the methodology to reduce ozone
  concentrations
• (reduction of emissions changes in traffic
  pattern)
• (3) To estimate the cost /benefit ratio
• (4) To study the potential ozone concentration
  (preventing high ozone
• problem in Shanghai)

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Key issues Improve emissions

• Based on the Streets Inventory (1/6 degree)
• Update the surface cover of Shanghai
• Update the traffic distribution
• Update the population distribution
• Update the point source distribution
• Update emission index, especially for traffic

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A Fully Interactive Model (A future environment
model)
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Traditional Model
Chemicals(ozone) Aerosols
WRF-Chem
Emissions
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Future Environmental Forecast Model (FEFM)

Impact Model Health Climate agriculture
WRF-Chem

Interactive Environmental Model
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Applications of the FEFM

• To forecast and prevent potential
• high ozone in Shanghai
• (2) To help for city planning
• (3)To assess environmental changes on
• air quality and humans health

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Thanks and Questions