Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Africa

1
Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in
Africa

• Josue Dione
• Director, Food Security and Sustainable
  Development Division (FSSD)
• UN Economic Commission for Africa (ECA)

2
Outline

• Agriculture, food security and poverty reduction
• Under-investment in, under-capitalization and
  poor performance of agriculture
• Implications for agricultural RD
• Compounding impacts of climate change
• Additional challenges for agricultural RD

3
Agriculture, Food Security and Poverty Reduction

• 70 of the poor in Africa live in rural areas
• Livelihoods of 90 of rural people depend
  directly or indirectly on agriculture
• 60 of the total labor force is employed in
  agriculture
• Large proportion of urban employment is linked to
  agriculture (esp. women in informal sector)
• Urban poor spend 60 of their budget on food
• Strong link between agricultural growth and
  overall economic growth (1.5-2.7 multipliers)

4
Under-investment in Agriculture

• Decrease in the proportion of public spending on
  agriculture from 6.4 in 1980 to 4.5 in 2002
  AU Maputo 2003 Summit commitment to increase this
  at 10 minimum by 2008
• Decline in public spending on agricultural
  research from 0.93 of agricultural GDP in 1981
  to 0.69 in the 1990s (compared to 2.4 in
  industrial countries)
• Fall of official development assistance to
  agriculture by 65 between the late 1980s and
  late 1990s

5
Under-capitalization of Agriculture

• Only 6 of the arable is irrigated, against 40
  in Asia
• 20 kg of fertilizer per hectare of arable land in
  Africa (8 kg/ha in SSA), i.e. 22 (and 9) of
  world average
• Tractors per 1000 ha of arable land 3 times less
  than in Asia and 8 times less than in Latin
  America
• Road density is 2.5 times less than in Latin
  America and 6 times less than in Asia
• Poor rural access to energy and
  telecommunications
• Institutions of agricultural education, research
  and extension are poorly staffed, under-equipped
  and under-funded

6
Poor Performance of Agriculture

• Land productivity at 42 of that in Asia and 50
  of that in Latin America
• Labor productivity at 60 of that in Asia and
  Latin America
• Sharp fall of share of global agricultural
  exports from 15 in the mid-1960s to 5 in 2000
• Food imports increasing at 3.2 per year, from
  US 13 bn in 1990-92 to US 20 bn in 2002-04
• Close to US 2bn of food aid per year
• Yet, over 25 of Africas population is
  undernourished

7
Implications for Agricultural RD

• Challenge of addressing, for structural and
  sustainable development of African agriculture,
  issues of/gaps in
• Technologies
• Infrastructure
• Institutions
• Policies
• Not only at farm level, but throughout value
  chains of strategic food and agricultural
  commodities (maximum efficiency minimum
  transactions costs)

8
Compounding Impacts of Climate Change
9
Compounding Impacts of Climate Change

• Projected impacts of CC on agriculture from IPCC
  Assessment, Stern Review and other major studies
• Reduced rainfall up to 10 decrease in Southern
  Africa and parts of the Horn of Africa by 2050
• Reduced water resources from major glaciers
  (Kilimanjaro, Kenya, Rwenzori), major lakes
  (Victoria, Chad) and rivers (e.g. Nile, Niger,
  Zambezi)
• Reduced area suitable to agriculture increase in
  arid and semi-arid areas by 60-90 million hectares

10
Compounding Impacts of Climate Change

• Reduced soil moisture storage capacity, quality
  and fertility with higher temperatures
• Reduced length of growing seasons by more than
  20 in the Sahel by 2020 with an additional 0.4C
• Increased proliferation of pests and incidence of
  pest attacks
• Constrained availability of human resources
  (labour) due to expanded range and prevalence of
  vector-borne diseases (in addition to HIV/AIDS)

11
Compounding Impacts of Climate Change

• Reduced crop yields from rain-fed agriculture by
  up to 50 in many countries and income by 11
  (irrigated agriculture) to 31 (dryland
  agriculture) Cline 2007
• Reduced productivity and increased production
  cost of livestock (reduced feed and fodder
  availability)
• Reduced fisheries resources from lakes due to
  rising temperatures
• Increased food insecurity and poverty for
  hundreds of people more, under business as usual

12
Additional Challenges for Agricultural RD

• Developing value chains of selected strategic
  food and agricultural commodities within a
  framework of regional integration
• Adopted by AU/NEPAD Food Security Summit of
  December 2006
• Rice, maize, legumes, cotton, oil palm, beef,
  dairy, poultry and fisheries products at
  continental level
• Cassava, sorghum and millet at regional level

13
Additional Challenges for Agricultural RD

• Linking the NEPAD/CAADP pillars around such
  strategic commodities within a framework of
  regional integration Regional Strategic
  Commodity Belts
• Sustainable land and water management pillar
• Infrastructure, trade capacities and market
  access pillar
• Food supply chain and emergency response pillar
• Research, technology dissemination and adoption
  Regional RD Centers of Excellence

14
Additional Challenges for Agricultural RD

• Some major RD issues to ponder
• Comparative advantage Re. The development of
  Regional strategic commodity belts and value
  chains -- How would climate change impact
  agro-ecological zones, comparative potential and
  advantage for different commodities,
  specialization/diversification?
• Growth and adaptation strategies What are the
  implications of CC for research on crop and
  animal breeding, water resources management, soil
  fertility management, food crisis prevention
  strategies, etc.?

15
Additional Challenges for Agricultural RD

• Some major RD issues to ponder
• Land for forests vs. agriculture What are the
  tradeoffs between expanding land under
  agriculture and keeping forests for CC
  mitigation?
• Cropping for food, feed, fiber or fuel What are
  the recommendable options, their costs/benefits
  and RD implications?
• THANK YOU