Japan

1
Japans Long-Term Energy Scenarios and the Role
of Nuclear Energy

• International Energy Workshop
• Kyoto, Japan
• July 5 - 7, 2005
• Osamu Sato
• Research Group for Energy System Assessment
• Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute

2
1
Contents 1. Background of Analysis 2.
Assumptions and Definitions 3. Comparison of
Cases 4. Concluding Remarks
3
2
(1) Changes in Energy Intensity (Final
Energy/GDP) (1965 2002)
(1973100)
Transport (Passenger)
Oil Crisis
Residential
Commercial
Transport (Freight)
Energy intensity was improved remarkably after
the oil crisis.
Total Final Energy
No improvement since 1990.
Industry
Year
4
3
(2) Electric Power Generation in Japan (1965
2002)
TWh
Total of Nine Electric Companies
Nuclear energy generates 35 of electricity in
year 2002.
Total generation has continuously increased even
after the oil crisis to meet growing electricity
demand.
Oil Crisis
Oil was almost replaced by nuclear and natural
gas.
Year
Source 2004 EDMC Handbook of Energy Economic
Statistics in Japan, EDMC, IEEJ
5
4
(3) Primary Energy Supply in Japan (1965 2002)
1015 kcal
Nuclear energy accounts for 12 of primary
energy in 2002.
Oil Crisis
Oil consumption has not decreased much because of
increasing demand for transportation and
feedstock.
Still now almost half of primary energy is oil !
Year
Source 2004 EDMC Handbook of Energy Economic
Statistics in Japan, EDMC, IEEJ
6
5
(4) Dependence on Imported Energy in Year 2000
Net Import of Energy
Nuclear
Net Import of Oil
Japan still depends heavily on imported fuel,
particularly on oil.
of Total Primary Energy Supply
Primary Energy by Nuclear (indicated only
for countries currently importing major
part of uranium required)
Source Energy Balances of OECD Countries, Energy
Balances of Non-OECD Countries,
2002 Edition, OECD
7
6
(5) Current Energy Issues in Japan
After the Oil Crisis in 1973, - Energy
intensity has substantially been improved. -
Oil has been substituted by nuclear and natural
gas. However, - Japan still depends heavily
on imported fossil fuel (80
of TPE), particularly, on
imported oil (50 of TPE). - Energy intensity
has not improved since 1990. - Yet, it will
take long time for new renewables
to penetrate significantly into energy
market.
Basic Question To what extent we can expand
utilization of nuclear energy in the future, and
thereby reduce dependence on fossil fuel ?
Analysis on Japans Long-term Energy Scenarios by
MARKAL
8
7
Contents 1. Background of Analysis 2.
Assumptions and Definitions 3. Comparison of
Cases 4. Concluding Remarks
9
8
(1) Basic Assumptions

• Annual Growth Rates of GDP
• 1.2 at 2000-2010, 0.6 at 2010-2030, 0 at
  2030-2050
• Energy Intensity (Final Energy / GDP)
• Improve at annual rate of 0.8 over 2000 -
  2050
• Imported Fuel Prices at 2050 (as compared with
  2000 prices)
• - Oil Increase by 100 (double)
• - LNG Increase by 50 (1.5 times higher)
• Future CO2 Emissions constrained to, as compared
  with 1990 Level
• 100 at 2010, 60 at 2050

GDP per Capita
Index (Year 2000100)
GDP
Population
Year
10
9
(2) Definition of Analytical Cases
Case Nuclear Power Generation (47 GWe as of April 2005) Nuclear Heat for H2 Production
A (Reference) 70 GWe in 2030 - 2050 10 GWt at 2050
B (Phase-out) No Investment after 2010 None
C (Expansion) 80 GWe at 2030 90 GWe at 2050 20 GWt at 2050
(1)
(2)
(1) Nuclear hydrogen production is assumed to
start at 2020. (2) Expansion of renewable energy
use and implementation of CO2 sequestration
are assumed in order to meet emission targets.
11
10
Contents 1. Background of Analysis 2.
Assumptions and Definitions 3. Comparison of
Cases 4. Concluding Remarks
12
11
(1) Final Energy Consumption
(Numbers indicate percentages in total.)
Exa Joule
Total consumption decreases much. Because of
decreasing population, conservation, and
deployment of FCVs.
Solar, etc
1.4
Heat
0.3
Elect- ricity
24
26
27
26
Coal
10
31
31
31
6
6
7
Hydrogen
Gas
13
20
20
11
11
11
24
7
6
6
Oil
24
24
25
52
45
39
44
24
22
23
Year
13
12
(2) Primary Energy Supply
Exa Joule
(Numbers indicate percentages in total.)
Natural gas will be only solution to achieve
stringent CO2 reduction goals in non-nuclear
scenario.
Renewables
6
9
Nuclear
9
13
11
11
Steam Coal
8
10
22
20
14
18
Coking Coal
8
9
5
7
33
8
25
Natural Gas
8
13
17
34
21
5
7
7
54
Oil
31
23
51
39
36
39
20
21
21
Year
14
13
(3) Electric Power Generation
(Numbers indicate percentages in total. )
TWh
Currently, energy mix for power generation is
rather balanced.
Natural gas dominates in non-nuclear scenario.
8
Other Renewables
6
6
10
15
10
1
10
10
23
Hydro
10
11
10
11
19
Nuclear
31
46
51
5
60
48
Coal
16
64
6
50
9
Natural Gas
23
8
27
Oil
19
21
19
11
Year
15
14
(4) CO2 Sequestration in Case B (Phase-out)
Million Ton CO2
Total Emissions by Power Generation and District
Heating Plants
CO2 to be disposed will be 170 million ton in
2050.
Emissions to the Atmosphere
CO2 Disposed
Year
16
15
(5) Annual Costs of Energy Supply
Total cost in non-nuclear scenario is larger than
nuclear scenarios by about 4 trillion yen in 2050
implying 20 increase of average energy costs.
Trillion Yen
CO2 Sequestration
Others
Renewable
Power Generation
Nuclear
Fossil
Fuel Conversion, Trans. Distribution
Natural Gas
Fuel Import
Oil Coal
Note Investment costs are annualized.
Year
17
16
Contents 1. Background of Analysis 2.
Assumptions and Definitions 3. Comparison of
Cases 4. Concluding Remarks
18
17

• Important Energy Options will be
• - Natural Gas for Electricity, for H2, and
  as Fuel to Substitute Oil
• Products for
  Industry and Transportation
• - Renewables for Electricity (but Remain at
  Limited Role until 2050)
• - Nuclear for Electricity, and for
  Process Heat to Produce H2
• Potential Contribution
  48 60 of Electricity
• (in 2050)
  25 33 of Primary Energy
• Key Issues are
• - Natural Gas Development of Resources in
  Central East Asia
• Development of
  International Domestic Pipelines
• - Renewables Promoting Market Penetration
  of Promising but
• High-Cost
  Technologies such as Solar PV
• - Nuclear Increase Technical Reliability
  in Power Generation
• Development of Fuel
  Cycle Systems, and
• 
  H2 Production Technologies

19
A1
Appendix 1 Assumptions
(1) Socio-Economic Assumptions
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Population (Million) 103.7 117.1 123.6 127.1 127.6 124.1 117.1 109.0 100.5
GDP (Trillion Yen) 204.1 312.7 469.8 535.7 603.6 642.0 680.3 680.3 680.3
GDP Growth Rate () 4.36 4.15 1.32 1.2 0.6 0.6 0 0
GDP per Capita (Million Yen) 1.97 2.67 3.80 4.21 4.73 5.17 5.81 6.24 6.77
Household (Million) 30.3 35.8 40.7 46.7 49.1 48.7 46.9 44.5 41.9
Persons per Household 3.42 3.27 3.04 2.72 2.60 2.55 2.50 2.45 2.40
Index (Year 2000100)
GDP per Capita
GDP
Population
Year
20
A2
(2) Assumptions on Energy Imports
Prices
2000 2010 2020 2030 2050
Crude Oil (/bbl) 20 26 30 34 40
Crude Oil (/GJ) 3.54 4.59 5.30 6.00 7.06
Natural Gas (/GJ) 4.01 4.61 5.01 5.41 6.02
Coal (/GJ) 2.00 2.15 2.25 2.35 2.50
Nat. Uranium (/lbU3O8) 19.0 21.9 23.8 25.7 28.5
Limits to Imports
2000 2010 2020 2030 2050
Oil Billion Liter 304 290 255 218 190
Natural Gas Million Ton 53 65 110 160 -
Coal Million Ton 137 202 - - -
21
A3
(3) Installed Capacity of Nuclear Technologies
GW
Nuclear Power Generation (GWe)
90
C
70
A
B
Nuclear Capacity for H2 Production (GWt)
Phase-out with a lifetime of nuclear power plants
40 years.
20
C
10
A
Year
22
A4
(4) Upper Limit to Installed Capacity of
Renewable Energy Technologies and CHP
Technologies
(GWe)
Technologies Technologies Technologies Technologies 2000 2010 2020 2030 2050
Renewables Case A and C Case A and C Hydroelectric 22.2 24 26 26 26
Renewables Case A and C Case A and C Geothermal 0.53 0.7 1.3 2 2
Renewables Case A and C Case A and C Solar PV 0.28 4.6 20 40 70
Renewables Case A and C Case A and C Wind Power 0 1 6 10 10
Renewables Case B (Phase-out) Case B (Phase-out) Hydroelectric 22.2 26.5 28 28 28
Renewables Case B (Phase-out) Case B (Phase-out) Geothermal 0.53 1 2 3 4
Renewables Case B (Phase-out) Case B (Phase-out) Solar PV 0.28 4.6 25 50 100
Renewables Case B (Phase-out) Case B (Phase-out) Wind Power 0 1 7 12 12
Coupled Heat Power Coupled Heat Power Conventional Conventional 5.4 10 10 10 10
Coupled Heat Power Coupled Heat Power PAFC PAFC 0.2 5 10 15
Coupled Heat Power Coupled Heat Power MCFC MCFC 0.1 2 8 25
Coupled Heat Power Coupled Heat Power PEFC (Town Gas) PEFC (Town Gas) 0.1 2 8 25
Coupled Heat Power Coupled Heat Power PEFC (Hydrogen) PEFC (Hydrogen) .5 3 20
23
A5
(5) Constraints on CO2 Emissions
Million Ton CO2
Actual
Constraints
Total emissions in 2010 excluding that from
bunker fuel are limited at the same level in 1990.
Total emissions in 2050 including that from
bunker fuel are limited at 60 of 2010 levels.
Emissions indicated here include those from
bunker fuel.
Year
24
A6
Appendix 2 Outline of Reference Case
(1) Primary Energy Supply
Exa Joule
Total PE decreases with annual rate o.4, but PE
per capita is constant.
Renewables
Share at 2050
Nuclear
Steam Coal
14
Coking Coal
25
2
Natural Gas
7
31
Oil
Energy mix in 2050 is more balanced than present
with reduction of oil.
21
Year
25
A7
(2) Electric Power Generation
TWh
Per capita electricity generation is 1.4 times
larger than today.
Share at 2050
Other Renewables
15
Hydropower
10
Nuclear
48
More technical reliability should be established
to shift largely to nuclear.
Coal
4
Natural Gas
21
Oil
3
Year
26
A8
(3) Final Energy Consumption
Exa Joule
FCVs contribute to the reduction of final energy.
District Heating
Solar Heat, etc
Share at 2050
Electricity
2
2
31
Coal Products
Hydrogen
Gas
11
6
25
Oil Products
23
Year
27
A9
(4) Transport Energy Consumption
Exa Joule
In 2050, no gasoline nor diesel fuel is used.
Only FCVs or EVs are used for road transportation.
Gasoline (Incld. LPG)
Hydrogen
Methanol
Diesel Fuel
Electricity
Gas FCV
Jet Fuel
Heavy Fuel Oil
Year
28
A10
(5) Transportation by Passenger Cars
LPG
Energy Consumption
Diesel Fuel
(Exa Joule)
Gasoline
Hydrogen FCV
Methanol
Gas FCV
Electricity
Transportation
LPG (Taxi)
(Trillion Passengerkm)
Diesel Fuel
Hydrogen FCV
Gasoline
Methanol
Gas FCV
Electricity
Year
29
A11
(6) Transportation by Truck
Energy Consumption
(Exa Joule)
Diesel Fuel
Hydrogen FCV
Methanol
Gas FCV
Electricity
Gasoline
Transportation
(Trillion Tonkm)
Diesel Fuel
Hydrogen FCV
Methanol
Gas FCV
Electricity
Gasoline
Year
30
A12
Appendix 3 Comparison of Cases
(1) Summary of Energy Scenarios
Note Index indicates relative values to the year
2000 (year 2000 100)
31
A13
(2) Installed Capacity of Electricity Generation
GWe
( Numbers indicate capacity in giga watt. )
24
Other Renewables
Solar PV
33
15
15
26
100
70
26
26
Hydro
22
28
26
26
Nuclear
45
27
28
67
75
21
90
Coal
27
44
70
Fuel Cell
23
34
72
Natural Gas
30
123
124
59
83
70
53
Oil
72
24
34
34
26
Year
32
A14
(3) Hydrogen Production and Consumption
B (Phase-out)
C (Expansion)
A (Reference)
Exa Joule
Production
Electrolysis with Off-Peak Elec.
Methane Reform. (Nuclear)
Methane Reform. (Nuclear)
Methane Reform. (Self-Burning)
Methane Reform. (Self-Burning)
Methane Reform. (Self-Burning)
Reforming of Oil
Reforming of Oil
Reforming of Oil
Consumption
Airplane
Airplane
Airplane
Passenger Car
Passenger Car
Passenger Car
Truck
Truck
Truck
Bus
Bus
Bus
Oil Refinery
Oil Refinery
Oil Refinery
Year
Year
Year
33
A15
(4) Analysis on Factors of CO2 Emission Reduction
g(CO2) g(CO2/PE) g(PE/FE)
g(FE/GDP) g(GDP/P) g(P)
Growth Rate of CO2 Emissions Growth Rate of
Average Emission Factor (CO2 Emissions per
Primary Energy) Growth Rate of Energy Conversion
Efficiency (Primary Energy per Final
Energy) Growth Rate of Energy Efficiency (Final
Energy per GDP) Growth Rate of GDP Per
Capita Growth Rate of Population
Annual Average Growth Rates over 2000 - 2050
GDP per capita is an only factor to increase
emissions of CO2.
Since shift to natural gas is limited by
expansion of nuclear, efficiency improvement is
modest.
Shift to natural gas increases efficiency.
Contributed by CO2 sequestration and by
renewables.
Contributed by nuclear.
Contributed by nuclear.