Natural Hazards

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NaturalHazards
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Natural Hazard Challenges
Integrated Risk Assessment Scientific Advice Integrated Risk Assessment Scientific Advice Integrated Risk Assessment Scientific Advice Integrated Risk Assessment Scientific Advice Integrated Risk Assessment Scientific Advice Integrated Risk Assessment Scientific Advice Integrated Risk Assessment Scientific Advice Integrated Risk Assessment Scientific Advice Integrated Risk Assessment Scientific Advice Integrated Risk Assessment Scientific Advice Integrated Risk Assessment Scientific Advice Integrated Risk Assessment Scientific Advice Integrated Risk Assessment Scientific Advice Integrated Risk Assessment Scientific Advice Integrated Risk Assessment Scientific Advice Integrated Risk Assessment Scientific Advice
Uncertainty in forecasting and risk assessment Uncertainty in forecasting and risk assessment Uncertainty in forecasting and risk assessment Uncertainty in forecasting and risk assessment Uncertainty in forecasting and risk assessment Uncertainty in forecasting and risk assessment Uncertainty in forecasting and risk assessment Uncertainty in forecasting and risk assessment Uncertainty in forecasting and risk assessment Uncertainty in forecasting and risk assessment Uncertainty in forecasting and risk assessment Uncertainty in forecasting and risk assessment Uncertainty in forecasting and risk assessment Uncertainty in forecasting and risk assessment Uncertainty in forecasting and risk assessment Uncertainty in forecasting and risk assessment

Hydro-meteorological Hydro-meteorological Hydro-meteorological Hydro-meteorological Hydro-meteorological Hydro-meteorological Hydro-meteorological Hydro-meteorological Hydro-meteorological Hydro-meteorological Volcanoes Volcanoes Earthquakes Earthquakes Earthquakes Earthquakes
Storms Storms Floods Floods Droughts, Wildfires Heatwaves Droughts, Wildfires Heatwaves Coastal Erosion Flooding Coastal Erosion Flooding Subsidence Landslides Subsidence Landslides Volcanoes Volcanoes Earthquakes Earthquakes Tsunami Tsunami
Development of physically-based models Development of physically-based models Development of physically-based models Development of physically-based models Development of physically-based models Development of physically-based models Development of physically-based models Development of physically-based models Development of physically-based models Development of physically-based models Development of physically-based models Development of physically-based models Development of physically-based models Development of physically-based models Development of physically-based models Development of physically-based models
Experimental Studies Monitoring survey Experimental Studies Monitoring survey Experimental Studies Monitoring survey Experimental Studies Monitoring survey Experimental Studies Monitoring survey Experimental Studies Monitoring survey Experimental Studies Monitoring survey Experimental Studies Monitoring survey
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Societal needs
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Theme drivers

1. Natural hazards and their consequences need to
   be forecast effectively.
2. The communication of scientific knowledge and
   understanding of natural hazards needs to be
   much improved.
3. Much more emphasis and financial resources need
   to be put into mitigation strategies.

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Theme Priorities

• Risks that are likely to increase in frequency
  and scale
• Where new research will do most to reduce risk
• Risks with core UK expertise or datasets

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Initial Actions

• Fill gaps in current portfolio
• Will be small to start with, but will ramp-up in
  size
• Will be prioritised by SISB on how they stretch
  the science
• Are only the initial actions it is expected
  that research into ALL challenges will be
  undertaken over the next 5 years

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Framework of Actions
Analysis and communication of uncertainty and
risk PDG
Quantifying uncertainty in predictions PG (CS)
Risk mitigationthrough targetedresearch PDG
Storm risk mitigation PG
Ice melt induced sea level rise PDG (CS, ESS)
Water cycle hazards PG (CS, SUNR)
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Analysis and communication of uncertainty and risk

• Develop a framework for the handling of
  uncertainty, risk and complexity across natural
  hazard research activities to enable improved
  uptake and usage of NERC science.
• Improve communication of the distribution, size,
  uncertainty and complexity of natural hazards to
  decision-makers.
• Generate common involvement and co-investment of
  social scientists and key stakeholders
  throughout scientific programmes.

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Quantifying uncertainty in predictions of
regional and local climate change  

• Develop, test and disseminate statistical methods
  to combine observations and models to quantify
  the total uncertainty in predictions of regional
  and local climate change, and climate impacts,
  especially for the next few decades.
• Because of their importance for climate impacts,
  attention must be given to predictions of changes
  in extreme events.    

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Risk mitigation through targeted research

• Develop a prioritised inventory of observational
  requirements, datasets and models that are
  required to minimise casualties and economic
  loss.
• Develop enhanced hazard and risk forecasting
  capability.
• Develop probabilistic hazard assessment
  techniques and, with joint vulnerability
  assessments, improved risk models.
• Case study Volcanic risk management
• Will have generic applicability

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Storm Riskmitigation

• Improve the ability to predict hazardous weather
  associated with mid-latitude cyclonic storms by
  developing improved representations of the
  physical processes and their interaction.
• Predict how enhanced greenhouse gas- induced
  pre-conditioning of the atmosphere will affect
  the generation and evolution of mid-latitude
  storms.
• Model vulnerability to storms (arising from
  precipitation and wind) at catchment/ coastal
  management unit scale through development of high
  resolution (regional) models.

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Ice-melt inducedSea level rise

• To predict rates of sea level rise based on
  improved modelling of ice sheet melt processes
  under a range of climatic scenarios.
• To predict impacts (including coastal flooding,
  estuarine interactions, groundwater interactions,
  erosion), and uncertainties, at a range of scales
  (e.g. a highly urbanised industrial catchment,
  the UK and international).
• Within LWEC, to establish socio-economic
  scenarios based on the impacts to enable improved
  communication and modelling of risk for
  policy-makers

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Water cycle hazards

• Quantify and narrow the uncertainty in
  predictions for the next few decades of changes
  in regional precipitation, evaporation, soil
  moisture, run-off and related water variables
  that cause floods and droughts.
• Narrow the uncertainty in predictions for the
  next few decades. 
• Make key results available in a form that
  decision makers concerned with adaptation and
  mitigation can readily use.

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Future activities

• Further activities across all natural hazard
  challenges are being considered it is expected
  that these will be developed once opportunities
  with the Living with Environmental Change
  Programme (LWEC) are clearer and following
  further consultation with research users and
  providers.
• Questions?