Agriculture and rural indicators in China

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Agriculture and rural indicators in China

• Xu Zhiquan
• Rural Survey Organization,
• National Bureau Statistics of China

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Agriculture and rural indicators in China

• Part1. Review on the indicators
• Part2. Underlying principle of the indicators
  designed
• Part3. The impact evaluation of the indicators
• Part4. Further issues
• Part5. Conclusive comments

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Part1 Review on the indicators 1.1 The indicators
of the Census

• The agricultural indicators on crops and
  livestock, use of machinery and irrigation
• The rural development indicators
• A. Environment for living and production.
• B. Geographic environment of residents.
• C. Infrastructure.
• D. Information related to the TVEs
• E. Indicators reflected to the small towns
• F. Information related to the labors

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1.2 The indicators of Current surveys

• a. Agricultural indicators input-output
  information on farming, forestry, animal
  husbandry, fishery.
• b. Rural indicators household survey General
  economic rural investments education,
  technology, culture and public health
  Development of TVEs. TV information.

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1.3 The indicators of specific surveys

• The indicators related to agriculture/rural
  area/farmers

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1.4  Questions

• Why the agricultural indicators was
  expanded to agriculture and rural indicators?
  What is underlying principle of the indicators
  designed?

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Part2 Underlying principle of the
indicators designed 2.1 Theory of 3
dimensional rural issues Basic principle for the
indicators designed

• Theory of three dimensional rural issues
  referring to issues concerning agriculture, rural
  area, and farmers. The main contents of the
  theory are as follows
•  

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2.11 Agricultural issue strenuous man-land
relationship

• Population 1.276 billion
• Cultivated land 1.95 billion mu (15mu1ha)
• ---Per capita Cultivated land 1.2 mu.
• ---The population is increasing year by year and
  the cultivated land is decreasing year by year.
• ---Agricultural products supply always is one of
  the top concerns for the governments

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2.12 Rural area issue poor and poverty

• Due to the typical rural-urban dual structure
  in China. In comparison, rural area is poorer and
  much more under-civilized.
• ---Per capita per-day income of rural households
  is 6.5yuan0.79 . Under the UN standard.
• ---Poverty population is 30 million ( per-day
  under 2 yuan ).
• ---Increasing of per capita income is slow down.
• ---Infrastructure insufficient.

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Increasing of per capita income of rural
household (1978-2001)
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Rural poverty population
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2.13 Farmers issue employment

• Total labors is 500 million estimated.
• ---Agricultural operation need 150 million,
• ---TVEs 120 million,
• ---Floating between rural and urban 80 million,
• ---Remain labors 150 million.

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2.14 Disparities between rural and urban

• Like many other developing countries, there are
  large disparities between rural and urban in
  many aspects, such as economic status and living
  standards. In 2001, the per capita income
• ---For urban residents reached 6860 yuan (2001).
• ---For rural households was 2366 yuan (2001).

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Comparison of per capita income between rural
and urban
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2.15 Three dimensions of an integrated rural
system

• Dependent on each other
• Influence each other
• Promote each other for ward
• The government always follows this principle to
  launch development strategies and policies.
• Its required that the indicators cover not
  only agriculture, but also rural area and
  farmers.

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2.2 Three dimensional indicators system

• Feature of agriculture and rural indicators
• ---Agriculture-related indicator system. The core
  indicator is grain yield.
• ---Rural development indicator system. The core
  indicators is the TVEs and investment and
  employment .
• ---Rural household level indicator system. The
  guiding indicator is income.

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Part 3 The impact evaluation of agriculture and
rural indicators

• 3.1 If the indicators can well demonstrate the
  inherent linkage, joint development, and tendency
  of three-dimensional rural issues.
• 3.2 If the indicators can truly reflect the
  performance in the sectors.
• 3.3 If the indicators can meet the demands of all
  sorts of users, particularly policy makers.

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3.1 The indicators can well reflect the
inherent linkage, joint development, and tendency
of three-dimensional rural issues

• 3.11 Agricultural indicator system
• 3.12 Rural development indicator system
• 3.13 Rural household related indicators system
• 3.14 The relationships among three dimensional
  rural issues

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3.11 Agricultural indicator system

• As the most important, grain yield increased
  48.5 during 1978 and 2001. The main contributors
  are the changes of input, farming systems and
  supply-demand status.
• ---In 1980s, HCRS contributed 46.9.
• ---Input of fertilizer 32.2,
• ---Price increase contributed 15.9.
• ---In 1990s main contributors are the changes of
  policies market demand

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3.12 indicators related to rural development

• Output value of TVEs is a of leading
  indicators among rural development.
• ---It close to the small towns
• ---It depends on and then promotes the
  improvement of rural infrastructure, culture and
  education.
• ---It close to the growth of rural investment
• ---It close to the employment

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3.13 Rural household related indicators system

• Income plays a very important role in rural
  household related indicators. The correlation
  coefficient between income and other indicators
  such as
• ---Household size (-0.5251),
• ---Percentage of labors attained senior middle
  school or higher education (0.7189),
• ---Wage income from working outside (0.9416),
• ---Expenditure (0.9652).
• ---Besides, operation type, living environment,
  are also dimensions along which income varies.

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3.14 The relationships among three dimensional
rural issues

• The correlation analysis by using 1978-2001 time
  series of grain yield, output value of TVEs, and
  per capita income of rural household. measured by
  correlation coefficient
• ---Between grain yield and income (0.856)
• ---Grain yield and output value of TVEs (0.772)
• ---Income and output value of TVEs (0.98).
• ---The correlation coefficient is even larger for
  central and western China.

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3.2 The indicators can truly reflect the
performance in the sectors

• 3.21 Agricultural indicators has been perfected
  progressively after years of adjustment. The data
  can be used to seasonally or annually trace,
  describe or estimate
• --- The way of crop growing,
• ----Supply of agriculture,
• --- Transition of agricultural structure,
• --- Change of production capacity,
• ---Tendency of agricultural development.

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3.22 Rural development indicators has function
in monitoring urbanization and
industrialization of countryside, construction of
rural infrastructure and changing of living
environment.

• The census has played an important role in
• (a) verifying the data about TVEs,
• (b) collecting information related to small
  towns,
• (c) fully investigating rural infrastructure and
  production/living standard, and
• (d) monitoring the changing tendency of rural
  development.

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3.23 Household survey indicators can be used
to monitor

• --- Income and expenditure growth,
• --- Change of production and living standard,
• --- Change of employment and
• ---Poverty status and poverty-reduction
  progression of rural households.
• ---Data from the census help to identify who is
  the poor and how to locate poor households in
  small area.

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3.3 The indicators can well meet the demands of
all sorts of users particularly policy makers

• 3.31 The data from the census and current survey
  place an essential foundation for all levels of
  governments
• ---To stipulate strategic programs and
• ---To stipulate five-year plans,
• ---To make policies, and
• ---To carry out macro regulations and controls.

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3.32 The indicators benefits farmers and other
sorts of users

• ---We gradual adjusted the indicator system to
  meet the requirements of all users.
• ---In practice, production data affect the
  purchase-and-sale behavior of related industrial
  enterprises in a very profound way.
• ---The price data of livestock directly determine
  farmers animal raising composition.
• ---The data from census benefits the enterprises
  of agriculture concerned in small areas.

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3.33 The indicators helps the international
society to better understand China

• Agriculture and rural indicators is also an
  ideal instrument for carrying out monitoring
  survey on foreign assisted projects

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Part 4 Further issues

• 4.1 Indicators related to Sustainability
• 4.2 Indicators related to rural households
  production and living
• 4.3 Indicators closely related to market
• 4.4 Coverage of agriculture and rural area.
• 4.5 To improve the share of statistical
  information

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4.1. Indicators close to sustainability

• ---The per capita area of cultivated land in
  China is equivalent to 41 of the global level.
• ---China only takes one fourth of the world water
  resource, and the water shortage in some cities
• ---More emergency is for China to bring more
  improvement to environment related indicators.

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4.2 Indicators related to rural households
production and living

• ---Transportation
• ---Power providing
• ---Safe drinking water
• ---Dwelling status
• ---Education
• ---Culture
• ---Health services

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4.3 Indicators close to market

• The indicators should meet the requirement of
  market as the follows
• ---Micro data of on supply and demand of
  grain,
• ---Intermediate cost of planting crops
• ---Intermediate cost Raising animals
• ---Cost-benefit management
• ---The market price of agricultural products.
• ---Agricultural accounting system

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4.4. Coverage of agriculture and rural area

• ---The combination of agricultural and rural to
  an integrated indicators system resulted in a new
  problem of inconsistency of the coverage.
• ---Special attention should be given to this
  issue whether by current survey or by the new
  census. Agricultural indicators should cover
  rural area and cities with agricultural
  activities, while rural indicators exclude urban
  area.

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4.5 To improve the share of census and survey
results

• (a) The unification of rural indicators
• (b)   The consistency and comparability of
  definition, classification, and coverage of the
  indicators.
• (c) Openness, transparency of data
  dissemination,
• (d) The improvement of data availability and
  usability. All those pose some new requirement on
  agriculture and rural indicators.

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Part 5 Conclusive comments 5.1 Indicators from
agriculture to rural

• The expansion from agriculture to rural
  indicators is not the change of agricultural
  conception, but to better adaptation to the
  typical feature of rural-urban dual structure,
  and to better reflect linkage between
  agriculture, rural area and farmers.
•  

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5.2 Efficiency of the indicators

• In this article, we managed to confirm the
  efficiency of agriculture and rural indicators
  through examination the inter-relationship among
  the indicators, function in sector performance
  monitoring, and the satisfaction of users. From
  this evaluation approach, the indicators is
  efficient.

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5.3   Indicators of the census and current
surveys

• ---How can the indicators better adapt to the new
  features of the 3 dimensional rural issues after
  the middle of 1990s?
• ---To deeply study the relationship among
  indicators and to simplify the indicators to
  lighten the workload of fieldwork, especially for
  those underdeveloped areas.
• ---To further clarify the linkage, especially for
  indicators classification and data link up,
  between census and current surveys.
•  

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5.4 Indicators of sustainability

• ---To clarify the relationship between short-term
  development and sustainable development when
  setting up indicators.
• ---To focus on the establishment of following
  indictor groups the exploitation/ protection/
  economization of water resource, grain for green
  and vegetation restoration, and soil erosion
  controlling.
• ---To carefully classify which indicators will be
  introduced into the new census, and which are
  suitable for sample surveys.

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Thank you !