Ecology for economy: Biomass imperatives

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'Urban growth Contemporary challenges' Centre
for Science and Environment New Delhi, June 22,
2009
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Urban roots
Cities emerged along the riverine trade routes
linked to indigenous economy
Patna A thriving trading city during 17th and
18th century
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Traditional cities decayed as colonial port
cities grew in prominence
Chennai
Kolkata
Beginning of public transport and also
motorisation
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We built walkable cities
Kolkata
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Unprecedented urban growth

• 1950-2006 The urban population of the world has
  increased from 739 million to 3.2 billion. By
  2025 around 65 per cent of the worlds population
  is projected to live in cities. By 2010 more than
  75 per cent of the worlds urban population will
  live in poorer countries (State of the World
  2007).
• More than 40 per cent of the world children are
  estimated to be living in polluted cities of
  developing world (WHO).
• A billion more will be added over the next three
  decades in Asia almost adding a whole new
  India. More than half of them will be living in
  cities
• What about India?

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Urban growth A mixed trend
Exponential annual growth in urban population
during 1940s, 50s and 70s Agrarian crisis
pushed people out of villages. They came to
cities in search of livelihood .. 80s and 90s
Urban growth rate drops from 3.8 in the 70s
to 2.7 in 90s. Share of urban population
increased slowly from 17.3in 1951 to 27.78 in
2001. The share of migrants in the total
incremental urban population dropped from 21.7
in 80s to 21.0 in the 90s. This co-relates well
with drop in the rate of urbanisation during the
nineties. Urban population is projected to grow
in the coming decade. The total urban
population is already as big as 287.56 million
which is almost equal to the total population of
the United States.
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Problem of skewed growth

• Top heavy growth The million plus cities (Class
  I) are growing faster than the smaller cities
  growth is not evenly distributed. Bulk of
  industrial and manufacturing concentrate around a
  few large cities..
• Asymmetrical growth Total towns increased from
  1827 in 1901 to 4368 in 2001. Million plus cities
  increased from 24 in 1901 to 393 in 2001. Share
  of urban population in these cities increased
  from 26 in 1901 to 69 in 2001. The remaining
  30 distributed in the remaining 3979 towns and
  cities.
• Stagnation at the bottom The transformation of
  rural settlement as urban centres is not so
  pronounced. Lower rung towns largely stagnating.
  Some have grown due to infrastructure investments
  and rural to urban migration.
• Shadow growth Top rung cities that have grown
  due to in-migration and aerial expansion show
  strong trend towards suburbanisation.

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Inequity, social and environmental imbalances in
cities

• Big cities have not been able to absorb labor and
  investments within the formal sector of economy
  leading to problem of slums and informal economy.
  21 of urban population live in slums. Nearly
  40-50 per cent of people live in slums of Mumbai.
• About 25.7 of the urban population live below
  the poverty line. While in class I cities 12 per
  cent of the households are below poverty line, in
  medium towns it is 23 -- even higher than rural
  areas.
• Urban planning has tried density control through
  physical planning but failed to check
  in-migration or address the issue of basic
  services.
• Social and environmental impacts of these trends
  are severe as there is also high level of
  inequity in the provision of basic services in
  cities. Poor are pushed to periphery.

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The challenge of urban governance

• Gregarious use of energy, resource metabolism of
  cities and their enormous wastes challenge urban
  governance.
• This demands very strong regulatory capacity to
  address these problems and to improve liveability
  of cities.
• Change planning mindset. Urban planning and
  design should aim for public health, low carbon
  and energy footprint, and urban community
  wellbeing.
• Implement integrated policies to minimise
  resource use, and waste generation and improve
  liveability of cities.
• Improve urban municipal governance

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How are we going to manage this growth?

• The issue is not about growth but about
  distribution, equity and urban governance
• Air pollution and mobility crisis Cities are
  being built for a small group of car owners,
  disregarding the mobility needs of the majority
  of urban population. Pollution and congestion
  costs high.
• Solid waste and hazardous waste 120,000 tonnes
  of garbage everyday in Indian cities. But very
  limited disposal, re-use and recycling
  capacities. Waste to energy remains a
  non-starter. Colonisation of land for waste
  disposal is leading to conflicts.
• Water and waste water Per capita water supply
  ranges from 9 lpcd to 584 lpcd across urban
  India. Only 72 cities have partial sewerage
  facilities and 17 have some primary treatment
  facilities and ..
• Energy impacts Cities are products of abundant
  cheap energy. Wide gap in demand and supply,
  wastage. One third of India living in cities
  consumes 87 of nations electricity. Remains
  energy inefficient. Both direct use of energy
  like fuels for vehicles, electricity, heating,
  cooling, etc and also embodied energy of building
  materials, and consumer items etc. are high and
  wasteful.
• Land constraints Urban sprawl build more
  inefficiencies

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Maximum city
Vision Mumbai (Mackinsy Plan) Build another
Shanghai it hits out at poor reduce slums
build free ways and expressways.What about
equity? 49 of population are in slums..
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Urban sprawl glitzy towns in dark shadows..
Privatised new townsTown of affluent but
infrastructure of poor-- 70 of water needs from
ground water Groundwater table falling at a rate
of 1 to 1.2 meters annually dropped by 16 meters
in last 20 years-- Only 40 of the DLF area
connected by sewer line-- Only 70-75 of solid
waste transported No landfill site-- Poor
public transport connectivity -- Due to acute
power shortage heavy dependence on
generator-sets-- Violation of development rules
related to open spaces and community services
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• If cities grow big its scale and density also
  make waste treatment, recycling facilities, and
  public transport more efficient.
• ..But efficiency gains can be limited in Indian
  cities due to poor urban governance..

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Positioning the debate

• Air pollution, public health, energy and
  vehicles..

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Exploding the myth of safe air
Public health policy still ignores the link
between air pollution and health
Particulates and other air toxins like benzene
can be lethal even in small doses WHO mandates no
safe level WHO recommends not only eliminating
extreme cases of high pollution but decreasing
average exposure levels among all.
How far tiny particles penetrate your lungs
Ultrafine particles 0.65 microns Magnified
200,000 times
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Daily dose of poison and combat priority
Fine particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) Trigger
lung cancer, respiratory and heart problems. Very
high levels in cities. Oxides of nitrogen
Forms smog and ozone. Triggers respiratory and
heart problems. A growing national problem Carbon
monoxide Reduces oxygen carrying capacity of
blood. Impairs hearth and nervous system. High
levels but on the mend. Sulphur dioxide Very
low levels. But contribute to deadly sulphate
particles. Toxic. Benzene Carcinogenic Triggers
blood cancer Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons
Cause cancer. Dangerous even at trace
levels. Tiny killers particulates most
dangerous in Indian cities
More challenges.. Newer technology solutions
have further splintered the particles into an
invisible size that defies measurement. Caught
in trade offs. Technologies needed to control
particulate emissions have increased other
harmful and health damaging pollutants like NOx
and its attendant problem of ozone.
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India Proliferating hotspots
Half of the cities are critically polluted due to
high PM10, even NO2 is rising in many of them a
twin trouble
Source Estimated based on CPCB data, comparison
with residential area standard
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City based clean air action plan takes root
Opportunity for integrated action.. Nearly 56
cities have city action plans. The process has
accelerated in 8 cities. City based plan
identifies the combination of local, state, and
central actions and emission controls strategies
for pollution control. The city based action
must be strengthened further to define target
reduction, and related control measures, with
schedule for implementation and compliance Build
strong interface between national air quality
planning process and city based action Delhi is
an important example
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2000-04 Delhi fought hard to get breathing space
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Deadly particles After a short respite the
curve turns upward
Source CPCB
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NOx levels rising steadily
NAAQS (R) 60 microgram per cubicmetre
Source CPCB
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Deadly particles The PM10 trend in key cities
Evidence of action in big cities. Falling PM10
levels. But still unacceptable levels. There is
still a long way to go
Source Estimated based on CPCB data, comparison
with residential area standard
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The new threat NO2 trend in key cities
NOx levels are rising in many cities. Kolkata is
among the NOx hotspots
Source Estimated based on CPCB data, comparison
with residential area standard
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• Energy Climate Challenge

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(1) The great guzzle..

• The great guzzler Transport sector uses up
  nearly 40 per cent of total consumption of oil
  and oil products
• Explosive vehicle numbers Four wheelers
  increased five fold in two decades. Consumption
  of fuels by vehicles in 2035 could be six times
  that of the 2005 level. This increase to be
  driven by light-duty vehicles, at an annual
  average growth of 10 per cent by 2030.
• LCVs will burn up nearly the same amounts of
  total energy consumed by the entire transport
  sector today. Heavy-duty vehicles will still
  splurge the most.  Can we afford this when nearly
  85 per cent of our crude oil needs will be
  imported at exorbitant rates by 2030? (WEO
  2007)Shift of freight from railways to trucks
  Share of railways down to 26. Transport energy
  demand in India would grow even faster if all
  highways planned are constructed. (WEO 2006)
• Pressure of high commuting demand By 2030-31 on
  an average Indians will travel thrice as many
  kilometers as they traveled during 2000-01.

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2) Great guzzle
Strong consumer interest in fuel efficiency
Urban Indians increasingly spending more on
conveyance. Monthly expenditure data from the CSO
shows that between 1993-94 and 2004-05, the share
of expenses on transport has gone up -- from
11.3 to 17.1 and that on food has declined.
CO2 mitigation a challenge in the transport
sector IEAs WEO 2006 estimates transports
share to CO2 emissions from oil is around 35 in
India. Higher fuel prices hurts. It hurts more
if vehicles are fuel inefficient. Rolling stock
of inefficient vehicles will continuously lock up
huge amount of energy Sheer numbers of cars will
undercut the fuel savings possible from public
transport.
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Are we losing it?
Small and medium cars will remain dominant.
But Shift towards heavier and powerful cars
expected at a faster rate. This
will negate efficiency gains..
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The subtle link.

• Local pollution can enhance the warming effects.
• HC NOx lead to regional ozone but also to
  background hemispheric ozone
• CO becomes CO2 but consumes OH radicals along the
  way increasing CH4
• Diesel PM increases PM10 PM2.5 ultrafine PM
  but also black carbon
• Now the emerging science says that warming gases
  can enhance local public health impacts as
  welle.g., each increase of 1 degree Celsius
  caused by carbon dioxide, can enhance PM and
  ozone build up. The resulting air pollution can
  lead thousands of additional deaths and many more
  cases of respiratory illness and asthma etc.
  (Mark Jacobson 2008)

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Fight for efficiency..

• Pressure building up for fuel economy standards.
  Industry resistant
• Auto fuel policy asked for mandatory voluntary
  declaration of fuel economy levels of car models
  This has not been enforced.
• Integrated Energy Policy 2006.
• The Integrated Energy Policy 2006 proposes
  improvement in vehicle fuel economy by 50 per
  cent by 2030. Oil requirement can go down by
  nearly 86 million tonnes by 2031-32.This means a
  saving of US 36 billion at the rate of nearly
  US 57 per barrel of crude oil
• This amounts to 65 per cent of total current
  consumption and in terms of carbon dioxide
• emissions reduction it is equal to removing 7
  million of todays four wheeled vehicles.

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Regulatory challenges
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Challenge of air quality governance

• A spate of laws in India..
• December 1984 Bhopal Gas Disaster
• India learns the pain of industrial growth.
• 1986 The Environment Protection Act is passed.
• Environmental Impact Assessment mandated.
• Environmental audits introduced.
• But by the mid-1990s things were out of hand.
  Pollution in cities, .toxic contamination
  growing.

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Air quality planning Challenge of governance

• The paradox Trend toward strong environmental
  laws.
• But governments do not act.
• Role of civil society and Judiciary becomes
  important
• Public interest litigation (PIL) provides
  opportunity to the civil society to drive
  policies
• Judiciary intervenes as the executive fails.

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Fractured governance
Total air quality management approach
missing Multiple agencies contribute either
directly or indirectly to the norm setting
process related to emissions and fuel quality for
vehicles, transportation measures and setting of
overall policies for ambient air quality. The
Planning Commissions in one of its report has
stated that the SPCBs have been reduced to only
Industrial Pollution Control Boards.
Implementation of the regulations related to the
vehicular pollution, for instance, does not fall
within the jurisdiction of the CPCB and SPCBs.
Role of civil society and Judiciary becomes
important. Public interest litigation (PIL)
provides opportunity to the civil society to
drive policies Judiciary intervenes as the
executive fails.
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Air quality standards to be more stringent
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Clean air targets still elusive

• India has adopted national ambient air quality
  standards
• Time bound air quality targets are not set to
  meet standards
• No punitive action on state governments for not
  meeting the ambient air quality norms.
• Abatement plans are not designed to meet local
  air quality demands
• Weak air quality surveillance impedes informed
  decision making
• Ensure enforcement of air quality standards,
  accountability and compliance.

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Trend towards auto dependent cities
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Toxic diesel..
Diesel cars more fuel efficient. But carbon
content of diesel higher. So CO2 emissions
increase if more fuel is burnt. PM and NOx
emissions are several times higher. Diesel soot
is also a warming agent.
1998 Diesel cars only 2 of the new car sales in
Delhi. 2007 Diesel cars nearly 30 of new car
sales 2010 Projected to be 50 of the sales
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Technology lag..

• Between 1996 and 2005 the amount of fuel used for
  each 100 km driven by new cars in the UK
  decreased by 6 as a result of improvements in
  efficiency.
• Emissions of CO2 from private cars rose by 4 in
  the same period, mainly because of increasing
  distances travelled by car, which rose by 10.
• PM10 emissions declined by 29 between 1996 and
  2000 but subsequently decreased by only a further
  3 the improvements offset by an increase in
  the use of, and emissions from, diesel cars.

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New diesel cars in India are clean - A
Myth? Post 2005 diesel car model High levels of
PM, NOx and air toxics Overwhelms the CO2
advantage A crippling trade-off
NOx
PM
Total air toxics
CO2
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Solution exist to make diesel vehicles clean. But
we do not have policies to enable them.
Source ICCT
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Reinvent the idea of mobility
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Explosive numbers A special challenge
Vehicle registration in India Indias urban
population has grown 4.6 times, vehicle numbers
have increased 158 times
It took 30 years to reach the first million mark
for personal vehicles in 1971. Another 20 years
to add two more million Then in 10 years
(1981-91) increased by 14 million Another 10
years (1991-2001) jumped by 28 million This
decade just in four years (2001 to 2004) we have
added 16 million
Source Computed on the basis of MOSRTH motor
vehicle registration data
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Where is the space for more cars?
Between 1996 and 2006 total road length in Delhi
has increased by about 20 per cent. But cars
increased by 132 per cent Delhi has 21 per cent
of its area under roads only quarter of its
population own cars cars and two-wheelers
together drive less than 20 per cent of its
people -- and yet roads are choked
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Peak volume traffic has increased phenomenally
Nearly 123 per cent growth on many roads (in
PCU/hour)
Source Based on City Development Plan of Delhi,
2006, Eco Smart
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Speed Plummets
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Cars encourage urban sprawl The Gurgaon
cataclysm
Development and density controls also encourage
move towards suburbs e.g. Satellite towns around
Delhi, Mumbai suburbs etc. Uncontrolled
suburbanisation Gurgaon, 32 kilometer from
Delhi 1961 37868 population. 2001 1.66
million. Car dependent city -- unfettered growth
despite severe water constraints. 70 of water
demand met from ground water. Alarming drop in
ground water level. No land for solid waste
disposal. Satellite townships have created 3.42
million daily trips -- of these 37 per cent of
the trips are made from Delhi to NCR, 42 per cent
from NCR to Delhi and the rest of the trips occur
in NCR but outside Delhi add to pollution and
congestion.
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Result congestion.
Peak hour traffic speed plummetsIt can be as
low as 10 hours per hour in Delhi, or 7 km per
hour in Kolkata Congestion costs can be as
high as Rs 3000 to 4000 crore per
year. ASSOCHAM study the commuting population
could be losing Rs 420 million human hours in
congestion. Each day 2.5 hours are lost in
commuting to destinations.
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Strike at the very root.
Restrain personal vehicle usage. Build public
transport International Energy Agency estimates
100 per cent difference in oil use in a future
scenario dominated by high quality bus system as
opposed to that dominated by personal vehicles in
Delhi ADB study projects that in Bangalore an
increase in public transport share from 62 per
cent to 80 per cent can save 21 per cent of fuel
consumption.
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Public transport is our strength. But wrong
policies discourage them
-- Buses still meet more than 60 per cent of our
travel requirements. Build on this strength.--
Without intervention increase in mobility will
change the modal split in favour of personal
vehicles. -- Share of public transport may drop
from 75.7 in 2001-02 to 44.7 in 2030-31. On a
per passenger basis a car uses six times more
energy than a bus. (IIT Kanpur)
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Wrong policies discourage buses
Total tax burden per vehicle kilometer is 2.6
times higher for buses than cars in India, says
the World Bank.
Tax correction can encourage buses. In Delhi if
lifetime tax is amortised for the life of the
vehicles then the owner pays roughly Rs 300 as
taxes per year. But buses pay for more for
carrying passengers. They pay about Rs 13000 per
year 43 times more than cars. .
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Urban form and sustainability Dense growth
helps
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Who walks in our cities
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High Risk Groups
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Cars lead to most iniquitous use of urban land
Cities are being built for urban minority

• Parking is one of the most wasteful uses of cars
  Out of 8760 hours in a year the total steering
  time of an average car is 400 hours. For about 90
  to 95 per cent of the time a car is parked.
• Insatiable demand for land If demand for land
  for an average car is computed on the basis of
  the average size of the car and one parking space
  per car -- the total cars already uses up 3 of
  the citys urbanised area or 10.8 extra land
  available for urbanisation. The forest cover in
  Delhi is 11.5 .
• Iniquitous use of land A car is allotted 23 sq m
  for parking. Under low cost housing scheme. The
  car owning minority using up more and more road
  space and urban space.
• Land is limited. Where will cities find more
  land to park cars?

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Parking Hidden subsidy!
FOR CARS Rs 20 for 2 hrs, Rs 40 2-4 hrs Rs 60
4-6 Rs 100 6-10 hrs Rs 250 24 hrs
EROS
Car Rs 10 for 12 hrs 2Ws Rs 5 for 12 hrs
No on-street parking proposed but not
implemented
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Poor mobility management By 2021 there will be a
shortfall of nine million trips per day
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Solution Public transport But progress very slow
Public transport projects to engineer change
High capacity bus system 100km Metro plan --
245 km planned If implemented on time and on an
extensive scale, can make significant impact on
car numbers, congestion and air quality. But
these have longer time schedule. Need effective
action in the short run as well. Augment the
available public transport. Supreme court
directive to increase the bus fleet to 10,000.
City fails to meet the target
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The Way AheadMaximise public health, energy and
climate benefits Need good urban governance

• Technology roadmap
• Review auto fuel policy roadmap to leapfrog
  emissions and fuel standards. Avoid trade offs
  between pollution and efficiency
• Reinvent Mobility
• Build public transport to leverage change
• Enforce car restraint measures
• Improve fuel efficiency with mandatory fuel
  economy standards
• Cross cutting measures Use fiscal policies to
  speed up change. Improve air and health
  surveillance
• Deepen, reform and strengthen the environment
  regulatory institutions

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Thank You