Presentation by

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Presentation by Antonio Divino Moura former IRI
Director General and current Director of INMET
(Brazil)
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The IRI Mission

• IRIs mission is to enhance society's capability
  to understand, anticipate and manage the impacts
  of seasonal climate fluctuations, in order to
  improve human welfare and the environment,
  especially in developing countries.

L i n k i n g S c i e n c e t o S o c
i e t y
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IRI Underpinning Activities

• climate prediction
• climate and environmental monitoring
• impacts
• decision support/tools
• institutions/policy
• capacity building/outreach/education

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FORECASTS in the context of potential IMPACTS
Green (brown) shows areas of persistent OBSERVED
above average (below) rainfall and for which the
FORECAST shows the upper (lower) tercile to be
most likely in the coming season.
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Capacity Building Training in the Met/Climate
Community Training others involved in the
End-to-End process of society adapting to new
information including related academic
communities, media, decision-makers Courses,
training products, collaborations
L i n k i n g S c i e n c e t o S o c
i e t y
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L i n k i n g S c i e n c e t o S o c
i e t y
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Model Output Statistics Applications
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An Integrated Approach for Managing the Impacts
of Climate Variability In Ceará, Brazil
PARTNERS
Brazil
USA
Objective - to support the continued development
of Cearás society and economy by reducing its
vulnerability to recurrent droughts.
L i n k i n g S c i e n c e t o S o c
i e t y
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RSM Precipitation Forecast from Jan for
Feb-Mar-Apr
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Jan-Dec Water Macro-Allocation Plan --- Developed
July-Oct
Revise
Revise
Revise
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Jan-Apr Drought Agricultural Guidance using
RSM Forecasts
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Results

• Forecasts influence optimal land allocation.

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Ceará Economic Structure
Evolution of the Sectorial GDP (PIB) Base
1985 100 (Source IPLANCE)
El Niño Index
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Dengue Early Warning System Mosquito Aedes aegypti

• main vector of dengue and also yellow fever
• peridomiciliar, diurnal bite
• adult female feeds on human blood
• live in recipients
• water in used tires, bottles, wholes in trees,
  ...

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Modeled Distribution of Potencial of Mosquito
Aedes aegypti
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Forecast valid for Dec2001-Feb2002 density
of aedis aegypti Made in Sept 2001 based on
Climate forecasts
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Health and Climate Programme, West AfricaPurpose

• To create the knowledge and capacity, and
  therefore the opportunity, for health
  organizations, and their partners, to predict,
  prevent and manage adverse climate-influenced
  health outcomes
• E.g. morbidity, mortality, nutritional status,
  birth weight, etc.

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Meningococcal meningitis is both preventable (by
vaccination) and treatable and yet its occurrence
worldwide is increasing. The most severe
epidemics occur in the "meningitis belt" of
Africa where large spreading epidemics occur
every 5-10 years involving 10-100s of thousands
and case fatality rates even with treatment of
5-10. It affects young adults as well as
children and, as a notifiable disease, causes
considerable political as well as social concern.
It occurs in the dry, dusty season
Meningococcal Meningitis

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The spatial distribution of Meningococcal
meningitis epidemics in West Africa
WHO - MDSC LSTM MoH
Molesworth, A.M. Thomson, M.C. Connor, S.J.
Cresswell, M.C. Morse, AP. Shears, P. Hart, C.A.
Cuevas, L.E. (2002). Where is the Meningitis
Belt? Transactions of the Royal Society of
Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 96, 242-249
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The forecasting principle
Early_______________ Peak_________________Late____
__________
7000
6000
5000
4000
Cases
-Rain______
3000
-Rain______
2000
Dust
1000
0
2
January
Dec.
April
May
January
Dec.
February
March
April
May
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Predictability of Sahelian rainfall using
experimental data from IRI. O. Ndiaye, L. Goddard
and N. Ward, in prep
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Greater Horn of Africa Project Objectives

1. Improvement of regional climate models and
   products
2. Increased availability and application of
   tailored products for reducing vulnerability to
   climate extremes and adapting to climate change.
3. More effective applications of climate products
   and services to reduce disaster losses and
   promote sustainable development.

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Objective 2 Tailored Products