Climate Partnering for Enduser Driven Research

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Climate Partnering for Enduser Driven Research

• Dr A. Henderson-Sellers
• Director
• World Climate Research Programme
• September 12 , 2007

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Millennium Development Goals

• Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
• Achieve universal primary education
• Promote gender equality and empower women
• Reduce child mortality
• Improve maternal health
• Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases
• Ensure environmental sustainability
• Develop a global partnership for development

Partner
WCRP
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The WCRP value network strongest with data
collectors, earth observers science partners
single goal is benefit delivery
End-users, data/model utilizers
End-users, ultimate beneficiaries of
the value network politicians, policy
makers, businesses, providers of
basic living requirements
START
IPCC
GE
NMHSs
Shell
Sponsors, funding agents
ESSIC
WB
IOC
NSF
Committee for Earth System Sc.
GEF
WMO
ICSU
Data collectors, earth observers
WCRP
GCOS
GOOS
IGOS
NASA
Related research, science partners, projects
ESSP
IGBP
START
La Plata
Diversitas
Needs
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Network Survey Summary

• WCRP commissioned survey 2006

• BAD NEWS
• WCRP has been a great success in the past, but it
  has lost its profile, and its image has blurred
  in the proliferation of climate research during
  the last 10 years.
• WCRPs projects have taken the lead and the
  coordination role of WCRP and especially the role
  of the Secretariat has become unclear and
  irrelevant to many.
• The Strategic Framework and the cross-cutting
  ideology is widely accepted, but it is hard to
  see how WCRP is going to implement it.
• The WCRP and especially the Secretariat suffers
  from lack of resources and the interviewees saw
  no immediate improvement to this situation, on
  the contrary, many expected the funding and
  support to resourcing to diminish.
• Most critical say that sunset dates of both WCRP
  its projects should be earlier.
• Many interviewees believe the WCRP core projects
  could outlive WCRP.
• Many interviewees also think that WCRP cannot
  function as an integrator in the long run, if it
  does not broaden its scope from pure climate
  physics towards cross-disciplinary approach to
  solving societal issues related to climate.
• A merger between IGBP and WCRP was frequently
  suggested.
• Scientists within the WCRP network have already
  too many commitments if WCRP cannot focus
  better, the attendance to meetings and
  conferences will decrease.
• Major climate research employers imply that
  their interest to share their resources with WCRP
  is declining, if clear benefits for their
  organization are not be seen.

• GOOD NEWS
• WCRP received very good feedback for being
• Trustworthy objective and unbiased
• WCRP at its best brings together the top
  international scientists to working collectively
  
• WCRP is a facilitator, enabling communication and
  cooperation among the scientific community
• WCRP is highly valued and believed necessary.

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Creating UNCCD Alignment
Research activities
Seasonal eg ENSO
Heat waves
Ghouse
Desert- ification
Down-scaling
Human health
Drought
Example areas
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Example with WWRP in YOTC
Seamlessness
WWRP-THORPEX
WCRP
JSC
JSC
MesoScale
SPARC
CLIC
Verification
CLIVAR
GEWEX
Tropical Meteorology
THORPEX
Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC)
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International Polar Year an example
Partner GEO

• Current Status of Polar Regions
• Change in the Polar Regions
• Global Linkages
• New Frontiers
• Polar Regions as Vantage Points
• The Human Dimension
• Observational Initiatives
• Data Management
• Education, Outreach
  Communication

WCRPs contribution to IPY in UN Year of Planet
Earth (2008) is legacy of observations
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UN Policy on Climate Change

• Countries vulnerable to the adverse impacts of
  climate change, especially least developed
  countries small island developing States,
  require increased assistance for the development
  implementation of adaptation strategies. This
  could include improving the dissemination of
  information, enhancing resilience to the adverse
  impacts of climate change and climate variability
  and integrating adaptation measures into national
  sustainable development strategies and national
  development planning.
• Target awareness profile of climate change in
  governments
• Research on early warning capacities for climate
  change adaptation
• Pursue research where climate change may decrease
  water availability
• Aim to adapt where climate impact on agriculture
  is negative

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moons for 15th
session Commission on Sustainable Development
(May 2007)
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Int Agricultural Research example

• Long history of international agriculture
  research
• Responded to 50s food crises
• Recognized the power of science to transform
  production, especially through new, adapted
  varieties of crops and animals
• Private property nature of agriculture favoured
  rapid adoption of results
• Impact assessments continue to be positive
  development agencies increasing support

Courtesy M. Williams

• Relevance to ESSP/GEC especially WCRP IGBP
• Land, water, biodiversity, genetic resources,
  fish, trees and climate as major determinants of
  food production

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Research Alignment Possibilities

• WCRP 1980-2007

• CGIAR 1960-2005

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• WCRP Objectives
• Determine the predictability of climate
• Determine effect of human activities on climate

Strategy to facilitate analysis and prediction
of Earth system variability and change for use in
an increasing range of practical applications of
direct relevance, benefit and value to society.
WCRP goal to build better links to sponsors
end-users

• Target better climate prediction
• Integration across WCRP (Anthropogenic Climate
  Change, Atmos. Chemistry Climate, Tropical
  Convection Monsoons, Decadal Prediction,
  Extremes, IPY, Sea level rise)
• Next generation weather and climate models
  (seamless prediction, thresholds, computing
  resources)
• Value delivery (users sponsors e.g. adaptation)
• Strategic partners (with ESSP) UNFCCC UNCCD

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Partnering on Climate Extremes

• Munich Re proposes (July 2007)
• Detection of extreme events objective to
  determine if extreme events were increasing or
  decreasing in number/intensity.
• Extreme event clustering objective coded
  gridded maps of recurrence statistic for a given
  extreme over some area (met. data or models used
  to define the statistics of the areal phenomenon)
  
• Projecting future global climate-related risk
• Rainfall probability objective set worldwide
  standards for based on traditional remote
  sensing measurements

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Global System Change Questions
WCRP/CliC-IPY

• Will there be catastrophic collapse of the major
  ice sheets, including Greenland and West
  Antarctic and, if so, how rapidly will this
  occur? What will be the time patterns of sea
  level rise as a result?
• Will droughts become more widespread in the
  western U.S., Australia, and Sub Saharan Africa?
  How will this affect the patterns of wildfires?
  How will reduced amounts of snowfall change the
  needs for water storage?
• How will continuing economic development affect
  the production of air pollutants, and how will
  these pollutants be transported across oceans and
  continents? How are these pollutants transformed
  during the transport?
• How will coastal and ocean ecosystems respond to
  changes in physical forcing, particularly those
  subject to intense human harvesting? What will be
  the impacts on animal migration patterns and
  invasive species?
• Will previously-rare diseases become common? How
  will mosquito-borne viruses spread with changes
  in rainfall and drought? What are the health
  impacts of an expanded ozone hole resulting
  from a cooling of the stratosphere, which would
  be associated with climate change?
• Will tropical cyclones and heat waves become more
  frequent and intense?

WCRP/GEWEX
WCRP/SPARC
Where is CLIVAR?
Earth Science Applications from Space National
Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond,
Anthes et al., 2007, US National Academies Press
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Budget for 2008 onwards
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CLIVAR 2008

• Setting priorities (better) in future

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World Climate Research Programme

• Objectives
• To determine the predictability of climate
• To determine the effect of human activities on
  climate

To facilitate analysis and prediction of Earth
system variability change for use in an
increasing range of practical applications of
direct relevance, benefit value to society