Title: Generation and Transmission Modeling Work Group
1Generation and Transmission Modeling Work Group
2Outline of Presentation
- GTMWG tasks and how they fit into the WREZ
project objectives - Model development
- Model outlines
- Schedule
- Connections with ZITA
- Connections with EL
3REMEMBER
- Ultimately, the buyers (load-serving entities)
determine what transmission gets built and what
resources get built - We dont have a way to force unwilling parties to
pay for transmission there must be voluntary
collaboration to build big transmission - We are expanding the options LSEs consider by
providing information on more distant resources - Presently, LSEs typically consider nearby
resources (e.g., distributed generation and
nearby renewables)
4Objectives of REZ Modeling Tool
- Assist resource planners and regulators to
evaluate the relative attractiveness of
geographically broad renewable resource options
at a screening level - Estimate delivered cost of both in-state and
out-of-state RE options from REZs to LSE load
areas - Highlight potential and benefits of collaboration
between LSEs to build transmission lines - Highlight potential for competition for limited
renewable resources
5Proposed Tool Outline (under review)
- Delivered Cost
- Tool calculates delivered cost of each renewable
resource type from each REZ to an LSE within a
load zone - Delivered Cost Bus-Bar Cost Interconnection
Cost Transmission Cost Local Delivery Charges - Relative Ranking
- Tool will provide market value adjustments to the
delivered cost to determine the relative
attractiveness of resources - Adjusted Delivered Cost Delivered Cost /-
Market Value Adjustments - Potential for Collaboration and Competition
- Tool highlights resources that are well-ranked
for multiple load zones - Collaboration User can modify default
assumptions to evaluate benefits of shared lines - Competition User can choose which resources to
include in analysis. A user may decide to
exclude a resource that they expect to not be
available due to competition for a limited
resource (or other reasons) - Tool Output
- Reports including the relative ranking of REZs
and the underlying data used to generate relative
ranking (Delivered cost, transmission cost,
market value adjustments, etc.) - Reports will highlight resources that are
well-ranked for multiple load-zones
6General Tool Functionality
- Excel-based tool
- Tool is provided with default assumptions (e.g.,
500 kV single circuit transmission from REZ) - User can evaluate relative ranking of resources
to each load zone based on default assumptions - Hope is to be able to evaluate 1 REZ to 1 load
zone, multiple REZs to one load zone, and
multiple REZs to multiple load zones - Tool includes considerable flexibility for user
to change default assumptions (e.g., generation
cost, transmission costs) - Users can evaluate user-defined what-if
scenarios - User can examine impact of their own view of the
future
7Illustration of Configurations
Model will do
We think model will do
Not sure simple model can do
8Aggregate REZ Resources
Example REZ and load hubs
- Core data of tool
- REZ list
- Bus-bar (generation and collection cost) and
transmission cost by renewable resource type - Primary assumption
- REZ transmission cost based on new high-voltage
substation within REZ (centroid) - User defined assumptions
- User can change cost assumptions
9Load Zone
Arizona Load Zone LSEs are represented within
nearest load zone
- Each LSE will be represented within a Load Zone
worksheet (e.g., APS and SRP in Arizona Load
Zone) - On the order of 20 load zones
- Tool will have empty placeholders for user to
define non-REZ resources to include in relative
ranking (e.g., distributed photovoltaics or CCGT
sited at load) - Tool will allow user to select which REZs and
resource types within REZs to include in analysis
10Delivered Cost
Tool will calculate total delivered cost from
selected resource types in selected REZs
- Tool will calculate delivered cost for each
resource type in each REZ to the load zone - Primary Assumptions
- Distance from REZ centroid point to load zone
hub - Distance will be based on routing via existing
rights-of-way to the appropriate extent (from GTM
sub-group) - Incremental transmission additions assume no
existing transfer capability
11Relative Ranking
Tool will rank resource types and REZs to
highlight most attractive options
- Tool will determine the relative ranking of
resource types from each REZ based on the
delivered cost adjusted for market valuation
factors - Important market value adjustment factors
- Capacity value
- Time-of-Use Energy Value
- Integration costs
- Externalities (e.g. , carbon taxes if comparing
to load-based CCGT) - More detail on assumptions and methods will be
provided in a Market Valuation presentation by
LBNL
12Comparison to other Load Zones
Similar ranking process will be done for each
load zone on separate worksheets
- Separate worksheets will be used for each load
zone - The same ranking cost process will be performed
simultaneously for each load zone
13Collaboration and Competition
Benefits of collaboration can be modeled by users
in what-if scenarios
- After determining the well ranked resources for
different load zones, a user can modify default
assumptions to determine the benefits of
collaboration in what-if scenarios - For example, a user could model a shared line by
changing default assumptions for utilization and
line distance - Tool, as proposed, may be able to accommodate
this type of investigation, but it would require
significant amount of external analysis.
14GTMWG Links to ZITA and EL
Renewable Energy Zone
15Interaction among work groups
Technical Committee
Zone Identification Technical Analysis work group
Environment, Land Use Permitting work group
Generation/ Transmission Modeling work group
Economic assumptions in supply curves
Areas to be excluded and minimum elements an area
must have to be considered
Areas of concern
Mitigation measures and cost
Conceptual transmission plans
Model for LSE evaluation of interest in REZs
Cost information Lands information
16Connections to ZITA
- ZITA to GTMWG
- Model input data on generation (next slide is
draft list provided to ZITA) in 500 MW blocks
(with some exceptions) - Proposed default value is current conditions
- User can change assumptions
- ZITA GTMWG iteration
- Size of REZs considering collection costs to
centroid and transmission solutions
17Data Needs from Zita
- For each renewable generation type in each zone
(e.g., wind, geothermal, biomass, CSP) - Generation type and technology
- Resource block size (e.g., 500 MW blocks of
resource) - Expected economic life of generating facilities
(years) - Capital costs (overall capital costs - inclusive
of construction financing - plus estimated
interconnection costs) (/kW) - Fixed operation and maintenance (/kW-year)
- Capacity factor () - annual
- Temporal profile (e.g., hourly profile of
generation by month12x24 suggest collecting
most detailed information available, however, as
analysis of complementarity may require more than
12x24 profile, and perhaps hourly data) - Variable operation and maintenance (/MWh)
- Fuel cost expenditures (if applicable) (/MWh)
- Financing assumptions debt/equity, interest,
term - Taxes federal, state, other ()
- Depreciation rate, term
- Applicable tax and production incentives
18Connections to EL
- For specific REZs whether assumed distance from
REZ centroid to transmission corridor is other
than a straight line - Any information EL may collect that might be
useful to WECC and sub-regional planning groups
when they develop conceptual transmission plans.
19Next Steps
- Model development
- Work through remaining assumptions
- Begin work on 1 REZ to 1 load zone model test on
multiple REZs to 1 load zone consider ways to do
multiple REZs to multiple load zones (likely
require a different, less transparent model) - Iterate with ZITA on zone size and delivery of
data needed by the model - October 7 webinar on model design
- Presentation of model design to Technical
Committee Oct 15-16 - Develop, test and populate model by January
- Training on model use
- Engage WECC and sub-regional transmission
planning groups - Groups being briefed
- January 31 study request to WECC