Growth in TwoStep Migration to Australia

1
Growth in Two-Step Migration to Australia

• Lesleyanne Hawthorne
• University of Melbourne
• Asia-Pacific Skilled Migration to Australia
  Workshop
• Macquarie University, 19-20 April 2007

2
Australias Growing Reliance on Overseas-Born
Professionals by Field (2001)
3
Differential Labour Market Outcomes for
Degree-Qualified 1996-2001 Arrivals, Australia
Versus Canada (2001)
4
Differential Outcomes for Degree-Qualified
Migrants 1996-2001 Arrivals by Select Country of
Origin (2001)
5
Differential Training Systems/ Resources

• Ranking of top 500 world universities (Shanghai
  Jiao Tong 2006
• 206 in Europe - overwhelmingly located in North
  West Europe, including 43 in the UK, and 40 in
  Germany
• 197 in the Americas -167 in the US, 22 in Canada,
  and just 7 in all Central or South America
  including 1 in the top 150
• 92 in the Asia-Pacific - 32 in Japan, 16 in
  Australia, 14 in China (none ranked in the top
  150, and with 2 of the top 4 ranked institutions
  in Hong Kong), 9 in South Korea, 7 in Israel, 5
  in New Zealand, 4 in Taiwan, 2 in Singapore, and
  just 2 in India (neither ranked in the top 300)
• 5 in the Africas - 4 in South Africa, 1 in Egypt,
  with no other African or Middle Eastern country
  listed) (Jiao Tong University 2006)
• Medical institution case study (Boulet 2005)

6
Major Source Countries for Skilled Migrant PAs
Versus Sources with Fastest Access to
Professional Employment (Canada and Australia)
6
7
Employment Barriers The Research Evidence
(1990s)

• Supply and demand in the Australian workforce
  (niche economies)
• English/ effective communication skills in a
  lean workforce without backroom jobs
• Credential recognition
• Technological fit (eg engineering, medicine,
  nursing)
• Ancillary professional knowledge
• Management style
• Industrial relations/union issues
• Occupational health and safety
• Duty of care (etc)
• Interview style (type and location of
  information)
• Discrimination, labour market protectionism etc
  (challenge of effective measurement)

8
Addressing Perceived Deficits (Case Study
Migrant Engineer Employment Bridging Courses)

• Language English for engineers
• Employment Job-seeking strategies for engineers,
  including orientation to professional engineering
  in Australia
• Technical upgrades Computer skills for engineers
  (eg AutoCAD)
• Career conversion IT graduate diplomas or
  Management degrees
• Accreditation Institution of Engineers
  Australia or technical accreditation training (eg
  taking 2-4 additional subjects in local civil
  engineering standards)
• Examination preparation Intensive training to
  prepare for pre-registration examinations
• Further engineering study (PG) eg Masters of
  Computer Engineering, PhD

9
Cost and Demand for Labour Market Bridging

• Cost
• Spending on preparatory English programs balloons
  from A36 million in 1982/3 to cA150 million
  1992/3, and rising
• Spending on labour market programs for migrants
  grows to A142 million by 1992/3, and rising
• Bridging program outcomes
• Remaining limited
• Level of demand
• 1996-2001 3276 bridging course places funded, to
  cater to all professions (600 places per year)
• 1994-2001 (Nursing) 336 NOOSR funded bridging
  course places available, in period when 12,000
  nurses arrived
• Potential demand 35,000 skill migration places
  in 1998/9 cf 53,520 in 2001/2

10
Skilled Migration Selection Changes in Australia
1999-August 2007

• Reduction of human capital model of selection
• Mandatory pre-migration English language testing
  for all Principal Applicants
• Independently validated
• 2. Mandatory pre-migration qualifications
  screening
• By relevant professional or trade regulatory
  body, where these have the power to control
  access to employment
• 3. Select for success among potential
  applicants
• Privileging of former students (now over 50 of
  all skill migration applicants) young,
  recognised qualifications, competent English
  ability
• Trained to employer requirements
• 4. Factor labour demand into field-specific
  selection
• Return of occupations in demand bonus points
  for job offer, local experience etc
• 5. De-regulation of temporary flows including
  opportunities for two-step migration

11
Employment Outcomes by Migration Category 6
Months Post-Arrival (LSIA) Mid 1990s cf 2000
12
Impact of Improved Screening Economic PAs
Employed 6 Months Post-Arrival in Australia
(1993-5 and 1999/2000) by Select Origin (LSIA)
13
The Policy Attractions of Temporary Migration

• Intensification 1996
• Government philosophy market-driven
• De-regulation and fluidity
• Employer-driven (eg source countries, selection)
• Potential to by-pass regulatory barriers
• Constrained locational choice (eg doctors)
• Malleability (eg economic cycles engineering,
  IT)

14
Case Study 1 The Rise of Temporary Medical
Migration to Australia (5,583 TR and 350 PR in
2005-06)

• Growing medical shortages
• Demographic shift doctor and patient base
• Reduction in 1996 of local university places
• Doctors barred from skilled migration to 2004 (25
  point negative weighting)
• Medical workforce maldistribution
• Rural and regional locations
• Public sector medicine (eg hospital junior
  registrar positions)
• Speciality workforce
• Insufficient in select fields, eg Psychiatry,
  Surgery, Emergency Medicine
• Current strategy to address medical shortages
• New medical schools (Notre Dame x2, Deakin,
  Western Sydney, Wollongong, Bond)
• Growing reliance on foreign medical graduates and
  former international medical students for at
  least the next 10 years

15
Impact of Demographic Transition Surgeon Age in
Australia (42 aged 55 or older)
16
Impact of Demographic Transition Number of
Surgical Operations by Patient Age (2001 versus
1991)
17
Degree of Australian Reliance on OTDs Compared to
the US, UK and Canada (2005)
18
Medical Migration Trends

• Sources Eg India
• Hyper-mobility of overseas trained doctors
  (Hawthorne et al 2003)
• Growing global competition for doctors (West,
  Gulf States, Africa)
• Temporary flows ?
• Attraction to government/ employers
• Multiple players (eg Recruit-a-Doc)
• Bypass standard accreditation processes
• Comparison Canada, UK (NHS and Skilled Temporary
  Migration Program)
• International medical students and internships
  (Hawthorne Hamilton 2007)
• Permanent flows ?
• Migration Occupations in Demand List
• Differential patterns and strategies by state
• Eg WA adventure medicine
• Net gains versus losses in retention
• Highest retention for Middle East, South Asia, SE
  Asia, NE Asia

19
The Shift to Temporary Overseas Trained Doctors

• The Registration and Training Status of Overseas
  Trained Doctors in Australia
• L Hawthorne, G Hawthorne B Crotty, Department
  of Health and Ageing, 2007, 157pp
• Analysis of
• All medical migration flows
• All Australian Medical Council examination data
  from 1978-2005
• Mailout survey of 3,000 recent OTDs (42 response
  rate)
• Analysis of State Medical Board data for all
  categories of OTDs NSW, Victoria, WA
• Commissioned state case studies and x30
  interviews with key informants

20
Temporary Entry Medical Visas

• Visa subclass 422 (Area of need)
• (Birrell Schwartz 2005)
• 1,419 in 1999-2000
• 2,496 in 2003-03
• 2,428 in 2003-04
• 3,074 in June 2005 (up from 1,636 in June 2003
  and 1,237 as of June 2001)
• Visa subclass 442 (Occupational Trainee)
• ?2,437 in June 2005 (cf 1,237 in June 2001),
  primarily to Queensland, WA and Victoria
• Recent increase in NSW June 2004 1,202 (Most
  as HMOs)

21
Variation in Area of Need Demand for Temporary
OTDs by State
22
Major Source Countries of Area of Need for
Temporary Doctors

• Over 27 countries by 2001 (growing diversity)
• By-pass mandatory credential examination
  requirements
• UK/Ireland (1226)
• India (423)
• Malaysia (230)
• Sri Lanka (191)
• China (94)
• Germany (83)
• USA (56)
• Philippines (55)
• South Africa (45)
• Canada (35)
• Etc

23
Sources of Medical Migration to Australia
(1996-2001) and Employment Outcomes by 2001
24
OTD Study AMC Exam Outcomes 1978-2005
(Hawthorne et al 2007)

• Candidates 139 source countries
• Top sources India (14), Sri Lanka (8), Egypt
  (7), Bangladesh (5), China (5), UK (5), Iraq
  (4), South Africa (4), Philippines (4),
  Pakistan (3)
• Pass rates (MCQ) 81 of attempters (51 on 1st
  attempt, 47 on 2nd attempt)
• Pass by origin (MCQ) UK/Ireland (95), South
  Africa (86), North America (86), SE Asia
  non-Commonwealth (70), East Europe (70), Other
  Americas (67)
• Pass rates (Clinical) 86 of attempters (but
  just 53 of all MCQ attempters go on to attempt
  and pass)
• Overall pass rates (MCQ and Clinical) South
  Africa (66), UK/Ireland (64), Central Asia
  (49), ), South East Europe (49), Other
  Americas (41), SE Asia non-Commonwealth (38)
• Age, English and recency of training highly
  significant Harder to pass for older candidates

25
OTDs, Age and AMC Pass Rates MCQ Exams
(Hawthorne et al 2007)
26
Temporary Resident OTDs An Emerging Two Tier
Medical Workforce

• Government and employer goals Two step
  migration
• Attraction of international medical students 60
  per annum
• Location Constrained
• Salaries A saving
• Patients Differentiated for select groups (eg
  Indigenous populations)
• Assessment
• Just 26-33 of all OTDs encounter the AMC
• Alternatives
• Growing use of RACGP and specialist pathways -
  but fast declining pass rates (61 1999 ? 40
  2004)
• Impact of accreditation status on employment
  outcomes (high demand)
• 78 of OTD survey respondents working
• Differential patterns and data by state
• Level of OTDs conditionally registered
• Characteristics (country of training, AMC status,
  actual credentials etc)
• Practice status
• Case study Non-accredited surgical registrars
  (eg NSW)

27
Case Study 2 Scope for Two-Step Migration in
Select Other Professions

• Engineering
• 2003-04 1,543 temporary arrivals
• IT
• 2003-04 3,342 TR compared to
• 2004-05 3,553 TR arrivals
• International student course pipeline
• Accounting
• Massive current growth

28
Recent Two-Step Migration Applications
Accounting, IT, Engineering and Building, Cooks
(2004-05)
29
Australian Dependence on Temporary and Permanent
Nurse Migration (1983-2000)
30
Demand for Overseas Temporary and Permanent
Nurses (5,000 TR and PR per year by 2005-06)
31
Employer Choice (in the context of credential
recognition rates for migrant nurses by select
country of origin 1990s)
32
Attraction of Turning On/Off the Tap Impact of
Demand on Employment Outcomes in Australia
(1996-2001 IT Arrivals Versus Other Fields by
Country of Origin (2001)
33
Case Study 3 International Students as a Source
of Skilled Migrants (DEST 2007)
34
International Students Australias Primary
Source of Economic Applicants (2005, B Birrell)
35
Engineers Australia Assessment of Applications
by Month (including former international students)
36
The Impact of the Migration Occupation in Demand
List The Growth of Trades (1999 Versus 2005)
37
International Student Enrolment Trends by Sector
(DEST 2007)
38
Top 10 Skilled Migration Source Countries to
Australia (2005-06)
39
But - International Student Issues (2006)

• Calibre of courses and vocational training
  Variable
• Student readiness to undertake course Prior
  English and academic training
• Enrolment Capacity to prevent dual-course
  enrolment
• Accelerated courses eg 16 month Masters
  Degrees (definition acceptability to employers?)
  
• Outsourcing of courses Eg university course
  outsourced to TAFE college
• Regulation Capacity for rogue providers to cross
  state boundaries, re-invent curricula, go
  off-shore (keeping ahead of regulatory processes)
• Differential training standards eg Lack of
  standard on- the-job experience to support
  technical courses
• Suitability of premises
• ? Impact on employment outcomes?

40
The Latest Australian Data LSIA Wave 3 (Birrell,
Hawthorne Richardson 2006)
41
Impact of Migration Occupation in Demand on
Earnings 6 Months Post-Arrival (2005)
42
New Zealand and Two-Step Migration (Bedford 2006)

• 2004-05
• 82,497 temporary visas
• Categories
• Labour market tested work permits 28,317 (UK
  22, China 12, India 7, US 7, South Africa 7)
• Working holidaymakers 21,025 (UK 35, Japan 16,
  Germany 11, Ireland 9, Canada 5)
• International students 77,563 (China 44, South
  Korea 15, Japan 6, US 4, India 3)
• Two-Step Migration
• 88 of 2004-05 skilled migrant PAs former
  temporary visas
• An integral part of the transition to residence
• Canada and UK Trends

43
Two-Step Migration Select Benefits and Issues

• Proliferation of the trend
• Eg US ?India and China higher degree students
• Potential benefits to migrants
• Access, settlement, accreditation, social
  networks (etc)
• Benefits to employers and governments
• De-regulation location and salary, field and
  numbers control
• Potential hazards
• Uncertainty of long-term status (eg Gulf State
  residence)
• Level of host government commitment (eg EU
  guestworker legacy)
• Compromised work and accreditation standards (eg
  OTDs in Australia)
• September 2007 policy developments