SOUTH AUSTRALIAS POPULATION POLICY : THE INFLUENCE OF RESEARCH

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SOUTH AUSTRALIAS POPULATION POLICY THE
INFLUENCE OF RESEARCH

• by
• Graeme Hugo,
• Federation Fellow
• Professor of Geography and Director of the
  National Centre
• for Social Applications of GIS,
• The University of Adelaide
• Presentation to ARC Research Network on Spatially
  Integrated Social Science National Conference,
  Melbourne
• 22 May 2006

2
Outline of Presentation

• Introduction
• South Australias Population Problem
• The Development of a Population Policy
• The Operationalisation of the Policy
• Conclusion

3
South Australias Population

• Slowest growth
• Oldest
• Most significant outmigration of young adult
  population
• Perceived as a constraint on the economic
  development of the state

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Contemporary Population Growth Rates (PA)
Source ESCAP 2005 Population Reference Bureau
2004 and 2005 ABS 2006
5
Australia and South Australia Rate of
Population Growth per Annum, 1947-2004Source
ABS 1986 and ABS Australian Demographic
Statistics, various issues
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Australia and South Australia Total Fertility
Rate, 1990-2005Source ABS Australian
Demographic Statistics various issues and ABS
Historical Statistics
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South Australia Net Interstate Migration
Source ABS 2005
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South Australia Interstate In-migrants,
Out-migrants and Net migration, Age and Sex,
1996-2001Source ABS, Unpublished census
migration data 2001
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South Australias Share of the Migration Intake,
1947 to 2005 Source DIMIA Australian
Immigration Consolidated Statistics and
Immigration Update, various issues
10
South Australia and Australia Age and Sex
Distribution of the Population, 2005Source ABS
2006
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South Australia Projected PopulationSource
ABS 2005, p.64
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Structural AgeingSouth Australia Change by
Age 2004 2010, 2004- 2020Source ABS
Projections, Series B
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Conceptualisation of the SA Population Problem

• Seen to be a numerical problem
• Led to a target mentality
• Population seen as a silver bullet

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Reconceptualising the Problem

• Population policy seen as an adjunct not a
  replacement for sound economic policy
• Need to get rid of growth at all costs mentality
• Need to accept realities of demography
• Need for developing a comprehensive population
  policy

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Analysis of Dynamics of Population

• Processes migration, fertility, mortality
• Impacts labour market, environmental, social
• Projection ABS and other scenarios

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Issues Identified Constraints on Development

• Ageing
• Loss of the brightest and the best
• Workforce shortages
• - Skilled and unskilled
• - Regional and Adelaide

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A Population Policy

• a coherent set of objectives with relation to
  future population size, distribution and
  structure together with a series of initiatives
  to achieve those objectives
• Anticipation and responding to trends
• Changing trends

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Context

• The Federal Government has eschewed having a
  Population Policy although it has many policies
  influencing population.
• Several States have developed a Population Policy.

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Some Key Points

• A population policy is not a substitute for good
  social, economic and environmental policy.
• The State policy document should be a starting
  point for community discussion.
• In any state population initiatives, local
  government will play a significant role because
  of the uneven spatial impact of policy.

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Strategies for Growth and Renewal

• State Population Policy Work toward a stable
  age structure of 2 million in 2051. Thereafter
  remains stable with a reasonable balance between
  working and non-working population.

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South Australia Population Targets

• 2 million by 2050
• 11,000 net gain p.a.
• 3 years to September 2004 - 23,000
• 2004-05 net gain 9,306

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Means to Achieving Targets

• Halving net interstate migration loss
• Increasing net international migration intake to
  representative share of national intake
• Stabilising fertility

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SA Fertility Policy

• Women can be
• both mothers and in paid employment
• supported in this by partners, employers and the
  State
• supported in their life cycle work participation
  patterns and not unduly penalised for absences
  from the workplace for caring responsibilities

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International Migration

• Increase South Australias share of the intake
• Use of SSRM programs
• Active lobbying and negotiation with DIMIA
• Shift in immigration issues toward sub-national
  jurisdictions

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SA Interstate Migration Policy

• Goal for zero net migration by 2008
• Inevitable loss of young adults
• Peripheral position of SA
• Key is in bringing in replacements
• - Students
• - Family formation groups

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Operationalising Policy

• Fertility
• International migration
• Interstate migration

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Fertility

• Little done yet but long term design to make
  South Australia The Family Friendly State

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International Migration

• Formation of Immigration SA
• Embracing of State Specific and Regional
  Migration Policy
• Involvement of Local Government
• Need to factor in retention

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Settler Arrivals (Overseas)Source DTED
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Number of Immigrants with Visas Granted under the
State Regional Specific Migration Mechanisms and
Their Proportion of the Total Intake 1997-98 to
2004-05Source DIMIA Population Flows
Immigration Aspects, various issues DIMIA
Immigration Update, various issues DIMIA
unpublished data
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South Australia Share of Australias Migrant
Intake by Visa Class 2001-02 and 2004-05 Source
DIMIA 2005
32
South Australia Overseas Student Enrolments,
1994 to 2005Source Australian Education
International
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International Students Achievements 04/05

• Doubled the national growth rate in enrolments
  (15.5)
• Economic benefits of overseas students to SA were
  estimated at 339m in 2004 this figure has
  grown constantly since 1996
• Just more than half of onshore overseas students
  are participating in higher education
• SAs market share 5.3 in 2005 (YTD), up from
  4.5 in 2004
• gt 80 of international students in 2004 were from
  Asia
• North-Western Europe and the Americas comprised
  15 of international students
• Growth countries India, China, Hong Kong,
  Taiwan, South Korea and Vietnam

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Return of SA Expatriates

• They tend to leave South Australia in their 20s
  and 30s.
• More than two thirds still identify with their
  home area.
• More than a half have a desire to return home
• Those most likely to be prepared to return are in
  the early family formation stages and are
  bringing up their children in a similar context
  to which they experienced and close to
  grandparents and other family as a priority.
• However, in order to operationalise this desire,
  they often need to be presented with concrete
  opportunities.

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Adelaide Make the Move Program

• Advertisements, website
• So far 8,370 enquiries to review kits 102 per
  week
• Interstate 41, overseas 59
• Targeted at 30-44 age group, family oriented and
  professional
• Recruitment firm appointed to find suitable jobs
• - 2,823 resumes since July 2005
• - 357 interviewed
• - 1,063 referred to other recruitment firms

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SA Current Statistics

• SAs Total population 1.54 million. Target of
  1.58 million by 2008
• Doing Well
• Overseas migration Up 57 from last financial
  year to 6,714 people
• Skilled migrants Already met 2008 target of 2500
  (2,871)
• Business migrants On track to meet 2008 target
  of 600 (449)
• Humanitarian migrants Already met 2008 target of
  1300 (1,787)
• Doing better
• Fertility rate 1.731 (slight improvement from
  1.708)
• Not Doing So Well
• Interstate migration Increase in net interstate
  loss from last financial year (-3,483)

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Conclusion

• Evidence based policy making
• Shift in policy directions
• Details of operationalisation influence
• Good working relationship with Government
• Openness to the good and bad news