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UK Climate Projections 2009 Regional Data West
Midlands
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UK Climate projections 09 help us understand
possible impacts in the UK and the need to reduce
our emissions

• These projections of our future climate have been
  developed by Met Office paid for by Defra (also
  on behalf of Scotland, Wales and NI)
• They show us the reality of climate change and
  help us understand both the importance of the
  need to reduce our emissions and adapt to
  inevitable changes.
• A great deal of information is available
  including pre-prepared maps and graphs, which are
  available online to anyone
• A report Adapting to Climate change UK Climate
  Projections setting out what the Government is
  doing on adaptation will be available, plus
  further reports on the science underpinning the
  projections by UKCIP

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How to access the projections ?

• Further information can be found on the Defra
  website at
• www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation
• For detailed access to the UKCP User Interface
• http//ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk

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For summer average temperature, we see
significant increases over the decades to the
2080s
Increased Tourism Increased Heat
stress Infrastructure risks Risks to
biodiversity Heat related deaths Risk to Food
Security
But the temperature on the hottest day of the
year could increase by up to 10ºC
West Midlands central estimate Medium emissions
The change for the 2080s is very unlikely to be
less than 2ºC and very unlikely to be more than
6.1ºC
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For rainfall we could see significant summer
decreases
Reduced stream flow and water quality Increased
drought Subsidence Decreased crop
yields Serious water stress
West Midlands central estimate Medium emissions
For the 2080s the change is very unlikely to be
lower than -43 and very unlikely to be higher
than 6
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For rainfall we see significant winter increases
Increased winter flooding Increased
subsidence Risks to urban drainage Severe
Transport disruption Risks of national
Infrastructure
West Midlands central estimate Medium Emissions
But rainfall on the wettest day of the year
could increase by up to 30
For the 2080s the change is very unlikely to be
lower than 3 and very unlikely to be higher
than 39
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Regional Key Messages

• In the West Midlands we have already started to
  prepare for the potential impact of a changing
  climate, regional partners are working together
  to deliver the 6 regional priorities identified
  in the West Midlands Climate Change Action Plan.
  This includes work on a three year programme to
  influence building design and developing
  regionally appropriate adaptation indicators.
• As part of the Local Area Agreements each local
  authority has begun to consider the impact on
  their operations and will be taking action to
  ensure they are more resilient to extreme
  weather. This includes looking at the management
  of surface water and drainage systems as part of
  a programme to improve flood management in urban
  areas.

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Regional Key Messages continued

• A regional Climate Change Co-ordinator is working
  with Advantage West Midlands to develop an
  adaptation programme for the regions businesses.
  This will improve awareness of the potential
  risks and opportunities of a changing climate and
  help to inform decisions on future planning and
  managing business continuity.

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Facts and figures

• The W Midlands landscape is one of enormous
  contrast with major industrial conurbations
  surrounded by vast areas of open countryside.
• The region contains a wide variety of wildlife
  and landscapes with habitats including woodlands
  and forest, the upland grassland and heath lands
  of the north and west, the built up areas,
  gardens and open spaces of the major urban areas
  and the broad river valleys of the south east.
• Over 70 percent of land used in the region is
  agricultural.
• The region is at the centre of the national rail
  and road network, and disruption due to adverse
  weather can have major impacts for other parts of
  the country.
• The West Midlands is already one of the driest
  regions in the country, with a high population
  density and therefore a limited amount of water
  available per person.

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What are the key impacts in the West Midlands?

• Built Infrastructure heat stress - may be an
  issue in major urban centres such as Birmingham,
  due to the urban heat island effect
• Natural Environment Biodiversity - habitats and
  species could be adversely affected. This effect
  could be exacerbated by the fragmented nature of
  habitats in the region
• Water availability - Currently the uses for
  abstraction and the environment have just enough
  water in the summer.
• Flooding - Urban drainage systems such as those
  in Birmingham might not be able to cope with the
  projected increase in winter precipitation
  intensity and become overloaded.
• Agriculture - general impact on crops across the
  region.
• Infrastructure Roads and railways have been
  affected in previous floods

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What actions are taking place in the West
Midlands to adapt to climate change?

• The West Midlands Climate Change Action Plan was
  launched in December 2007 and sets out the
  actions that regional organisations can and
  should take over the next three years to move
  towards a position where all regional policy
  addresses the causes and impacts of climate
  change as a central objective.
• To focus specifically on the challenge of climate
  change we have established a Climate Change
  Adaptation Group to identify the key impacts for
  the West Midlands and develop a plan of work to
  develop a strategic response. This work includes
  managing a series of projects that will improve
  the capability of the West Midlands to adapt to a
  changing climate.

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Local Authorities

• 4 of the regions 14 local authorities have
  adopted NI 188 (adapting to climate change) as a
  priority indicator in their Local Area Agreements
  Solihull, Walsall, Warwickshire and
  Worcestershire.
• All other authorities are also considering the
  impact of climate change in their areas including
  preparing local climate impact assessments to
  consider the potential impact on services and
  infrastructure.
• Some areas have taken action to adapt to
  potential climate changes including the
  production of Local Climate Impacts profiles,
  flood risk assessments  and innovative building
  design  e.g. in Worcester.

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Case Study built environment, Redhill School

• Aim To provide a low carbon building that is
  able to maintain a comfortable and robust
  teaching environment over its lifetime.

• The redevelopment of Redhill School,
  Worcestershire is one of the first in England to
  have a climate change impact assessment carried
  out from the start of the design process. The
  2.7 million project involves a replacement
  primary school on the site of the former 1960s
  building.
• Outcomes
• a sustainable urban drainage system using
  swales, ponds and underground storage box
• A rainwater harvesting scheme used for flushing
  toilets, takes rain from half the roof area
• Other roof areas are planted to reduce run off
• Shade is provided

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Be Birmingham Local Strategic Partnership
Climate Change Strategy

• Aim
• To adapt the City of Birmingham to climate change
  impacts through resilience and planning
• Outcomes
• Risk assessments of social services most exposed
  to impacts of climate change
• Guidelines for businesses to incorporate climate
  change adaptation techniques into normal business
  management
• Development of business opportunities around
  mitigation and adaptation technologies

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Q A

• Q. How is climate change likely to affect the
  West Midlands?
• A. The latest predictions suggest that we could
  see significant changes in average temperatures,
  and levels of rainfall. This could mean less
  rainfall in the summer and more rainfall in the
  winter. The value of the latest projections is
  that they help us to assess the potential impacts
  so that we can consider where and how we need to
  respond
• Q. What is being done to prepare for climate
  change in the West Midlands?
• A. We have already started to prepare for the
  potential impact of a changing climate, regional
  partners are working together to deliver the 6
  regional priorities that have been identified in
  the West Midlands Climate Change Action Plan. We
  have also established a Climate Change Adaptation
  Group to identify the key impacts for the West
  Midlands and develop a plan of work to develop a
  strategic response.
• Q What is being done to ensure the local economy
  is resilient to climate change?
• A.A Regional Climate Change Co-ordinator is
  working with Advantage West Midlands to develop
  an adaptation programme for the regions
  businesses. We have also identified key sectors
  at risk from climate impacts from the West
  Midlands Economic Strategy evidence base, and
  have used this to inform the development of a low
  carbon business support programme.