Corporate Vugraphs new formatting

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The Lockwood Analytic Method for Prediction
(LAMP) 15 January 2002
An Innovative Methodological Approach to the
Problem of Predictive Analysis
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Briefing Sequence

• Background of LAMP
• Philosophical basis for LAMP
• The 12 Steps of the LAMP Process
• Limitations of the LAMP
• Potential Applications for LAMP
• Conclusions

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Background of LAMP

• Developed by Dr. Jonathan Lockwood in 1992 while
  in DCI Exceptional Intelligence Analyst Program
• Utilized by numerous graduate students in JMIC as
  core methodology in Masters Degree theses
• Software exists in early prototype only
• First published in Defense Intelligence Journal
  in Fall 1994

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Philosophical Basis of LAMP

• THE FUTURE IS
• Not Predetermined
• The Sum Total of All Interactions of Free Will
• A Dynamic Spectrum of Constantly Changing
  Relative Probabilities

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The 12 Steps of LAMP

• Determine the Predictive Issue
• Specify the Actors Bearing on the Problem
• Conduct in-depth study of perceptions and
  intentions of each actor
• Specify courses of action for each actor
• Determine the major scenarios
• Calculate the number of alternate futures

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Linkages Within the LAMP Method
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The 12 Steps of LAMP (Continued)

• Do pairwise comparison of alternate futures
• Rank order the alternate futures
• Analyze consequences of alternate futures
• Determine focal events for alternate futures
• Develop indicators for each focal event
• Assess the potential for transposition between
  alternate futures

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The Concept of the Analytic Map
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Limitations of LAMP

• Exponential explosion problem with alternate
  futures
• Analyst can identify most likely future, but
  cannot assign a quantifiable probability of
  occurrence for each future
• Little allowance for ambiguity

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Potential Applications for LAMP

• Indications and Warning
• Estimative Intelligence
• Common analytical method for intelligence
• Computerized analytic tool kit
• Training
• Interface between intelligence, academia and
  public policy communities
• Tactical intelligence (?)

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Conclusions

• LAMP does not grant the gift of prophecy
• LAMP is not an infallible method
• LAMP does provide a logical and powerful method
  for analyzing the futures many possible paths
  
  

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WHAT ARE YOUR QUESTIONS?