North American Drought Briefing For Jan

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North American Drought BriefingFor Jan Nov
2007 to Jan 2008

• Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA
• February 14, 2008
• http//www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

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Partners Contributors

• CPC Kingtse Mo, Wanru Wu, Muthuvel Chelliah,
  Wesley Ebisuzaki, Yun Fan, Huug van den Dool, Wei
  Shi
• EMC NLDAS Team Ken Mitchell, Youlong Xia, Jesse
  Meng, Helin Wei
• EMC NAEFS Team Zoltan Toth, Yuejian Zhu
• NASA/GSFC Brian Cosgrove, Chuck Alonge
• Princeton Univ. Eric Wood, Lifeng Luo, Justin
  Scheffield
• Univ. of Washington Andy Wood, Dennis
  Lettenmaier
• Web Masters Viviane Silva, Joe Harrison
• Project Funded by NOAA CPPA

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P from Nov 2007-Jan 2008
California Strong intraseasonal
oscillations Southeast Dec had some rain along
the Gulf coast. No rain in Jan. Drought
continues Texas and Southern Plains Drought is
developing Colorado Rain in both Dec and Jan
Nov 2007-Jan2008
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• SPI3
• The Northern central US is getting dryer
• Texas drought started to develop.
• California had some rain ( so less dry) in
  comparison with last month.
• In the long term SPI6 or higher Severe drought
  still exists in the Southeast including parts of
  Florida.

Drought D0SPI lt -0.8 Moderate drought D1
-0.9 to -1.2 Severe drought D2 -1.3 to
-1.5 Extreme drought D3 -1.6 to
-1.9 Exceptional drought D4 SPIlt -2
Ref Svoboda et al. (2002)
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Total SM percentile from RR (29-yr clim)
Ensemble SM mean(10-yr clim)
Southeast dry Pacific Northwest Wet Texas
getting dryer Ohio, northern Plains wet
Soil moisture percentiles NASA (29-yr clim)
Cosgrove and Alonge
Mosaic
Noah
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SM Percentiles at Different Levels Based on RR
Drought D0SM lt 20 Moderate drought D1
10-20 Severe drought D2 5-10 Extreme drought
D3 2-5 Exceptional drought D4 lt2

Ref Svoboda et al. (2002)
Texas and Dakota dryness from 10cm to 1m, but
into deep soil yet. Southeast SM dryness to the
deep level
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Monthly Streamflow Conditions
Southwest and mid-Atlantic states dry Northeast
and Ohio Valley wet Southern Plains getting
dryer California coast normal inland dry
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SRI3 and SRI 6 U. Washington Andy Wood
SRI3
Standardized runoff index SRI

• In comparison with the SPIs, they all suggest
• Southeast severe drought
• Texas drought started to develop (only appears
  in spi3 and sri3, not spi6 or sri6 longer)
• SRI shows California drought.

SRI6
1955-2005
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Snow Water Equivalent (mm/day)
NLDAS does not agree over the western mountain
region RR, Noah, VIC are positive and mosaic is
negative All shows negative anomalies over the
Northeastern region
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Weekly precipitation 2-8 Feb 2008 More
precipitation over the Pacific Northwest and Ohio
Valley, the Southeast is still very dry
Weekly soil moisture anom ensemble
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Hot Spots

• California Rainfall does not entirely influenced
  by the cold ENSO signal because of the strong
  MJO.
• Southeast drought any relief in sight?
• Texas and southern Plains Will cold ENSO make it
  worse?

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MJO and California Rainfall
Cal
PNW
150E
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SSTs for Drought over the Southern Plains and the
Southeast
Pickup drought events based on SM percentiles
over RFC10 (S-Plains) and RFC12 (Southeast)
respectively Make the composites of SSTA based on
events
Cold SSTAs in the central Pac Warm SSTAs in the
Atlantic and the N-Pac
Data source (SM) VIC 1915-2006 Andy wood SST
ersst 1915-2006
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SSTAs for Jan 2008
The ENSO forecasts indicate that the cold ENSO
event will continue for the next 3 months. The
Atlantic SSTAs are decreasing (slowly since Nov).
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Regional SM percentile Time Series
Because the land-atmosphere coupling is strong
over the Southern Plains, the drought events last
longer in comparison with droughts over the SE
. Using the VIC data (from 1915 on), we identify
events 1917 May lasted 20 mos 1952 Jun Lasted 36
mos 1963 Apr lasted 16 mos Most recent one was
2005 lasted 9 mos
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Regional total Soil moisture percentiles Time
series
Overall, the duration for droughts in RFC12
(Southeast) is shorter than droughts in the RFC10
area.
The longest drought occurred in 1954. It lasted
for 14 months
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NAEFS Week1 and Week2 Fcsts
Cold ENSO signal
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CFS Downscaling Princeton U
Jan 2008
Mar2008
Feb 2008
Forecasts started from Jan 2008
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ESP Forecasts ENSO Based IC 20080203
Total SM Percentile Forecasts
1 month lead
3 month lead
2 month lead
University of Washington - Andy Wood
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Runoff Percentiles Forecasts ICs 20080210
1 month
3 months
2 months
Southeast and Texas dryness continue for 1-2
months The upper Missouri basin will get dryer
University of Washington - Andy Wood
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Summary

• Southeast Drought is likely to continue.
• California The MJO has strong influence on
  rainfall. The convection related to the MJO does
  not in favor of rainfall in the next 15 days or
  so.
• Pacific Northwest, the Northeast and the Ohio
  Valley likely to be wet.
• Drought is developing over the Southern Plains.
• There is indication of dryness in south and north
  Dakota and part of Minnesota.
• Areas needed to be monitored carefully
  California and Southeast, Texas, Dakotas

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Thanks for New Products

• Brian Cosgrove and Chuck Alonge
• Soil moisture percentiles based on 20 year
  climatology (1979 on) from Mosaic and Noah
• Andy Wood SRI plots for runoff and SRI forecasts
• Happy Valentines day!!!