Monitoring dynamic

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Monitoring dynamic human-environmental systems
A historical and political ecological critique
on the role of baseline analyses 2002 Berlin
Conference on the Human Dimensions of Global
Environmental Change "Knowledge for the
Sustainability Transition" Danny de
Vries University of North Carolina at Chapel
Hill Department of Anthropology 301 Alumni
Building, CB 3115 Chapel Hill, NC
27599-3115 Phone [phone] devries_at_email.unc.e
du
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http//www.stub.bildarchiv-dkg.uni-frankfurt.de/Bi
ldprojekt/Skripts/EndAbfrage.idc
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From Kjekshus (1977) Ecology control and
economic development in East African History.
Berkeley.
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From Kjekshus (1977) Ecology control and
economic development in East African History.
Berkeley.
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Villagers of Itebulanda, Urambo District,
Tanzania July 2000
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donors are generally concerned with
demonstrating that the particular intervention
they are funding is having a measurable impact.
To date, this has often involved using
intervention project funds to do a baseline study
and then to track changes over time USAID
MEASURE Evaluation Monitoring and Evaluation to
ASsess and Use REsults http//www.cpc.unc.edu/pro
jects/measure/initiatives/hiv_aids/hivpapers/hivre
port.html
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Moment A
Moment B
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1. Baselines defined by a single datum are
highly suspect unless the reader is also given
additional information whether in fact it was a
representative figure. 2. Trends that are
depicted by only two points should be viewed with
skepticism, especially if a more complete time
series is available. 3. The nature of the data
will often determine the best techniques for
depicting trends. 4. Even accurately depicted
trends may be inadequate for answering certain
types of questions.
Ole R. Holsti (1975) The Baseline problem in
Statistics Examples from Studies of American
Public Policy. Journal of Politics.
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Population Momentum the tendency for population
growth to continue beyond the time that
replacement-level fertility has been achieved,
simply because there is a relatively high
concentration of people still in childbearing
years
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