Winter Product Simplification: Coming Next Winter

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Winter Product SimplificationComing Next Winter

• NWS Partners Meeting
• June 18, 2008

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Background

• NWSI 10-513 (WFO Winter Weather Products)
• specifies a large suite of event-specific
  advisories and
• warnings related to winter weather hazards.
• Motivation to implement current suite (November
  2005)
• was based in flexibility afforded by VTEC
  and results
• from Public Services Survey.
• However, internal and external feedback now
  strongly
• suggests we should return to a more
  simplified approach.

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A LAKE EFFECT SITUATIONFEBRUARY 6, 2006
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CONFUSION IN PHILADELPHIA AND NEW YORK CITY
MEDIA MARKETS
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Why Change Now?

• Difficult to describe and distinguish among the
  many
• products associated with complex winter
  events.
• Much time spent on (and confusion resulting
  from) canceling
• and re-issuing products with little
  difference in impacts.
• During significant winter events (many which
  include SVR),
• WWA map becomes cluttered.
• Large number of available products results in
  occasional
• inconsistencies among adjoining WFOs.
• Importantly Regions concur individual
  warnings and
• advisories should include all events of
  similar impact.
• The proposal accomplishes this goal.

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Example of Current Product

• NEZ044-045-050gt053-065gt067-078-011900-
• /O.NEW.KOAX.HS.W.0006.020301T1900Z-020302T1200Z/
• BUTLER-CASS-DODGE-DOUGLAS-HARRISON-LANCASTER-MILLS
  
• POTTAWATTAMIE-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-SHELBY-
  
• INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LINCOLN AND
  OMAHA
• 430 AM CST FRI MAR 1 2007
• ...HEAVY SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
  AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY....
• THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS
  ISSUED
• A HEAVY SNOW WARNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL BECOME
  MORE
• WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THIS AFTERNOON... WITH 8
  TO 12
• INCHES OF TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION BEFORE
  THE
• SNOW ENDS LATE TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS AT 15
  TO 25
• MPH WILL BECOME NORTH TONIGHT...PRODUCING SOME
• BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW.

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Example of Simplified Product

• NEZ044-045-050gt053-065gt067-078-011900-
• /O.NEW.KOAX.WS.W.0006.020301T1900Z-020302T1200Z/
• BUTLER-CASS-DODGE-DOUGLAS-HARRISON-LANCASTER-MILLS
  
• -MONTGOMERY-POTTAWATTAMIE-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-
• SEWARD-SHELBY-WASHINGTON-
• INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LINCOLN AND OMAHA
• 430 AM CST FRI MAR 1 2007
• ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
• AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY....
• THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED
  A WINTER
• STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW. LIGHT SNOW WILL
  BECOME MORE
• WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THIS AFTERNOON... WITH 8 TO
  12 INCHES OF
• TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION BEFORE THE SNOW
  ENDS LATE
• TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WILL
  BECOME NORTH
• TONIGHT...PRODUCING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF
  SNOW

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Comment Process

• Original Public Information Statement (PNS) sent
  on
• February 28.
• Over 100 comments were received.
• Response among those who expressed an opinion was
  
• overwhelmingly positive (85).
• Large majority of respondents were broadcasters
  EMs.
• Service Change Notice to formally notify of
  change was
• issued May 12 for September 9 implementation.

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Total Number of Responses - 108
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Responses by Affiliation
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Sample Comments - Supporters
Too many warnings/advisories for the public to assimilate. Its hard enough to educate on the distinction between watches, warnings and advisories. The proposed changes are much easier to disseminate. Could not come sooner. I've stopped using (the specific codes) myself. Anything to make it less confusing for viewers is good. Please do this - the maps have became so convoluted.
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From Those Who Disagreed

• The proposal works against what the VTEC was
• designed to do.
• Response
• - True, some codes will no longer be used
• - But comments strongly support they
  should not be used.
• Sleet should keep it's own designation.
• Response
• - Its very rare for sleet to meet warning
  criteria.
• - Sleet is usually a transition type very
  difficult to forecast.
• - Can be handled via Winter Wx Adv. or
  Winter Storm Warning

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From Those Who Disagreed (Contd)

• 3) Would require opening the notice or read
  further to
• determine why the warning or advisory was
  issued.
• Response Event specific information will
  be prominently
• found in the first line of the text, which
  is generally read
• by broadcasters and announcers.
• 4) Mobile phone text alerts may rely on what
  the product
• is called, without being able to present
  the text.
• Response Valid concern - we will work
  to remedy via
• the use of CAP and the Next Gen. Warning
  Tool.

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Next Steps

• Update forecaster training and assure completion
  by August 15.
• Update NWSI 10-513 prior to implementation.
• Continue to collect comments from you following
  implementation for future improvement.

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Questions?