The Sixth Northwest Electric Power and Conservation Plan

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The Sixth Northwest Electric Power and
Conservation Plan
Caveat While these slides were borrowed from
the Council, the opinions and narrative were not.
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Unlike Utility Planning

• Imperfect foresight and use of decision criteria
  for capacity additions
• Adaptive plans that respond to futures
• Likelihood analysis that captures strategic
  uncertainty

slide 2
Planning Principles
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Comparing System Cost and Risk
System Cost Mean NPV across all futures
Risk Mean NPV of 90th Percentile
12.5
15
17.5
20
22.5
25
27.5
30
32.5
35
10
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Feasibility Space
Increasing Risk
Increasing Cost
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Selection of Resource Plans
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Feasibility Space
Increasing Risk
Increasing Cost
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Selection of Resource Plans
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Efficient Frontier
Source Analysis of Optimization Run_L811
090502.xls
Source Analysis of Optimization Run_L811 090510
2101.xls
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Plan in a Nutshell

• Aggressive conservation
• Renewable generation to meet RPS requirements
• Additional energy, capacity, and flexibility
  needs provided by natural gas-fired generation
• Cost-effective, small-scale, local renewable and
  cogeneration opportunities should be developed

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Resource Costs Long Term
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Conservation is Cost-effective Under Many
Different Future Scenarios
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Conservation Reduces Power System Cost and Risk
Low Conservation
Increasing Conservation
Decreasing Cost and Risk
Plan
High Conservation
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Wind Development is Driven by Renewable Portfolio
Standards
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Existing, Committed, and New Wind Generating
Capacity
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The Energy Surplus
Source Adequacy 6th Plan Base Case 050609_MJS.xls
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Peak/Off-peak price difference going away
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CO2 Penalty Distribution
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Gas-Fired Generation Options
High/Low Conservation is /- 20 of Plan
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Coal Provides 19 Percent of PNWs Energy
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Coal plants account for 88 percent of power
system CO2 emissions
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Carbon EmissionEffects of Scenarios
2005
1990
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Cost of Carbon Reductions
2005 Emissions
1990 Emissions
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Typical Residential Electric Bills - with free
CO2 allowances (averaged over 20 years, so
2-4/month higher after coal shutdown or
dam-removal in 2020)