Impact Prediction

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Lecture 10

• Impact Prediction
• Air Dispersion Modeling,
• Socioeconomic Impacts

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Air Dispersion Model

• Estimates the downwind concentration of a
  pollutant (Cp) emitted from a facility
• Model parameters
• Quantity of emissions (Qp)
• Release parameters at the source
• stack diameter and height
• stack gas release temperature and exit velocity
• appropriate meteorological data (wind speed,
  atmospheric stability)

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Computer Model Results
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Source Types
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Plume Behavior
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Terrain Effects
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Building Downwash
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Wet and Dry Deposition
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Typical Plume from Elevated Source
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Pasquill-Gifford Model

• Puff Model (pulse release)
• Plume Model (continuous release)

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Meteorological Effects on Plumes
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Atmospheric Stability Classes
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Vertical Dispersion Coefficients(continuous
releases)
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AERMOD - EPA Dispersion Model
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Information Flow for Socioeconomic Impacts
Prediction
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Socioeconomic Impacts Assessment Process

• Identify potential socioeconomic impacts
• Prepare description of existing socioeconomic
  conditions
• Procure relevant standards, criteria or
  guidelines
• Predict impacts with and without project
• Assess significance of socioeconomic impacts
• Identify mitigation measures

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Potential Socioeconomic Issues

• Education
• Employment
• Commercial facilities
• Health care and social services
• Liquid-waste disposal
• Solid-waste disposal
• Water supply

• Storm-water runoff
• Police and fire protection
• Utilities
• Parks and recreation
• Transportation
• Cultural facilities

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(No Transcript)
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GUSD and SBHSD ProjectedEnrollment and
Capacities, October 2002
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FIRE STATION SERVICE CHARACTERISTICS, 2005
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CURRENT WASTEWATER TREATMENT DESIGN AND PERMIT
CAPACITY BREAKDOWN
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Water Supply and DemandGoleta Water District
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Cumulative Impacts

• Impacts that result from incremental changes
  caused by other past, present, or reasonably
  foreseeable actions together with the project
• Examples
• Degradation of range land from multiple grazing
  allotments
• Increased acidic deposition from emissions
  trading policies
• Incremental loss of wetlands from national permits

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Cumulative impacts List method
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Cumulative Projects List

• Example - FACULTY AND FAMILY STUDENT HOUSING,OPEN
  SPACE PLAN, AND LRDP AMENDMENT EIR
• Sources Santa Barbara County
• http//sbcountyplanning.org/projects/index.cfm