Agribusiness Management Conference California Ag Issues

1
Agribusiness Management ConferenceCalifornia Ag
Issues Outlook for 2003Winegrapes

• Presented by Barry Bedwell
• General Manager, Ciatti Grape Brokerage
• 1101 Fifth Street 170 San Rafael, Ca 94901
• [phone] barry_at_ciatti.com
• Thursday, October 31, 2002
• 10345AM
• Radisson Hotel and Conference Center, Fresno,
  California

2
(No Transcript)
3
(No Transcript)
4
2002 Chardonnay Spot Market

• C S SJV PYA 190-300 Spot 65-125
• North Int PYA 450-1200 Spot 65 -250
• Cent Coast PYA 1100-1500 Spot 65-300
• Nor CoastPYA 1200-2300 Spot 125-1500

5
(No Transcript)
6
2002 Cab Sauv Spot Market

• C S SJV PYA 125-330 Spot 65-75
• North Int PYA 750-1250 Spot 65 -500
• Cent Coast PYA 1250-1350 Spot 65-1000
• Nor CoastPYA 1300-3700 Spot 150-3000

7
(No Transcript)
8
2002 Merlot Spot Market

• C S SJV PYA 300-400 Spot 65-175
• North Int PYA 550-1375 Spot 65 -500
• Cent CoastPYA 1200-1300 Spot 65-1200
• Nor Coast PYA 1200-2750 Spot 150-1500

9
(No Transcript)
10
2002 Zinfandel Spot Market

• C S SJV PYA 240-300 Spot 0-175
• North Int PYA 500-1100 Spot 0 -500
• Cent Coast PYA 900-1200 Spot 0-800
• Nor Coast PYA 700-2050Spot 400-2000

11
California Winegrape Acreage 2001

12
California Winegrape Acreage 2001

13
North Coast Winegrape Acreage 2001

14
Central Coast Winegrape Acreage 2001

15
Lodi (District 11) Winegrape Acreage 2001

16
CS SJV Winegrape Acreage 2001

17
Estimate for Length of Down Cycle

• Chardonnay Given relative amount of non-bearing
  acres, market improvement should begin within two
  to three years.
• Cabernet Sauvignon The potential for an
  increasing supply puts recovery out potentially
  three to five years. The same could be said for
  Pinot Noir.
• Merlot Central Coast may continue to soften in
  short term while overall statewide two to fours
  years should see improvement.
• Zinfandel The lowest non-bearing numbers should
  translate into positive factors based upon each
  years individual crop size.

18
Market Outlook for 2003 As we look
toward the future Were in the storm- is that
blue sky ahead?

• North Coast Spot market will continue to find
  difficulty, even in Napa and Sonoma. Overall
  prices will remain stable due to high number of
  reference price contracts. Spot market estimated
  at five to fifteen percent.
• Central Coast Given a growing amount of grapes
  on the spot market, estimated at ten to
  twenty-five percent, average prices should ease
  as annual purchases continue downward trend.
• Northern Interior Acreage for over-supplied
  varieties should be reduced as growers face
  reality of another year of below cost spot
  prices. Grapes under contract should be
  relatively stable as the fifteen to thirty
  percent that is available on spot market takes
  majority of pricing pressures.
• Central and Southern San Joaquin Valley Acreage
  reductions and the years crop size will go a
  long way in shaping the value of annual purchases
  which are estimated to be twenty-five to fifty
  percent of the market. The impact of the
  concentrate market will remain an important
  factor.

19
Thank You For Your Time and Attention
Agribusiness Management
ConferenceCalifornia Ag Issues Outlook for
2003 Winegrapes

• Presented by Barry Bedwell
• General Manager, Ciatti Grape Brokerage
• 1101 Fifth Street 170 San Rafael, Ca 94901
• [phone] barry_at_ciatti.com
• Thursday, October 31, 2002
• 1045 AM
• Radisson Hotel and Conference Center, Fresno,
  California