EU vision on longterm climate policy

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EU vision on long-term climate policy
Etienne Hannon Federal Public Service Climate
Change Unit Université Libre de
Bruxelles Seminar on international climate
policy - ULB 25 November 2008
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Outline

• Long term goals
• EU 2 degree target
• Other positions on LTG
• Negotiation process the Bali Action Plan
• EU ideas on a long term agreement
• Shared vision
• Mitigation
• Adaptation
• Technology
• Finance
• EU key messages

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The EU 2C target

• Why 2 degree (relative to pre-industrial levels)
  ?
• lt 2C allow adaptation for many human systems
  at globally acceptable economic, social and
  environmental costs
• gt 2C huge cost of adaptation and considerable
  impacts (exceed adaptive capacity high risk of
  large scale irreversible effects)
• How ?
• GHG concentrations stabilized below 450ppm CO2 eq
  (50 chance NB lt 400ppm increase the
  probability to 66-90)
• 2C target still achievable with temporary
  overshoot

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Implications of the 2 degree target for GHG
concentrations and emissions
Schematic overview of historic total CO2
emissions (grey), concentrations (blue) and
global mean temperatures (black/red) and
illustrative time-series for a future evolution
(EU 2 degree paper)
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Translation of the 2C target in terms of
mitigation objective

• global GHG emissions should
• peak by 2020 at the latest
• be more than halved by 2050 relative to 1990
• Global average GHG emissions per capita should be
  reduced to around 2 tonnes CO2 by 2020
• necessary gradual long term convergence
• emission reductions required are achievable,
  through a broad range of currently available
  technologies technologies expected to be
  commercialized in the coming decades

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Other Parties positions on LTG

• Most developed countries LTG is a core issue
  but figures put forward are different, e.g.
• Norway 50-85 by 2050 compared to 2000 (peak no
  later than 2015)
• Japan 50 by 2050 (no ref. year), and peak in
  the next 10 to 20 years.
• G8 Hokkaido Toyako Summit Leaders Declaration
• at least 50 reduction of global emissions by
  2050 (ref. year ? )
• Required mid-term goal
• Vulnerable DCs more ambitious LTG (well below
  2C, 450 ppm)
• Major DCs and emerging economies no concrete
  proposals on LTG Argentina, China mid-term
  targets for developed countries should be set
  before fixing the LTG
• Norway, Brazil need for DCs to substantially
  deviate from baseline emissions within the next
  few decades (condition support ! )

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Negotiation process the BAP

• Bali Action Plan Launch a comprehensive process
  in order to reach an agreed outcome and adopt
  a decision at its fifteenth session 2009 by
  addressing
• A shared vision, including a long-term goal for
  emission reductions
• Mitigation, Adaptation,Technology Finance
• Establish a subsidiary body (Ad Hoc Working Group
  on Long-Term Cooperative Action)
• work completed in 2009 (Copenhagen)
• Stocktaking of the process at COP.14 (Poznan)
• Process to be informed by science and by internal
  and external processes

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EU ideas on the  shared vision 

• adequacy of action with long term goals
• need for a move to low-carbon societies (broader
  than just emission reductions)
• common ground on the timetables Long-term goal-
  2050 mid-term goal- 2020 reference year 1990
• LTG must be updated in accordance with last
  scientific findings (NB not an argument to
  postpone the definition of a long term goal ! )
• SV determines ambition level for mitigation and
  implications for technology, finance and
  adaptation
• share of mitigation efforts consistent with the
  principle of CBDR RC, responsibilities of
  developed countries to take the lead

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Differentiation of mitigation pathways for
developed and developing countries
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Illustrative emissions pathways for A1 and NA1
countries

• Developing countries
• 15-30 reduction from baseline by 2020 (recent
  science)

• Developed countries (IPCC)
• 25-40 reduction by 2020
• 80-95 by 2050

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Reduction ranges in A1 NA1 countries
Source den Helzen et Höhne
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Mitigation efforts in developed countries EU
vision

• collective reduction of GHG emissions within the
  range of 25-40 by 2020 compared to 1990
  (consistent with IPCC-AR4)
• technically feasible and economically affordable
  significant potential available at reasonable
  cost)
• significant co-benefits of GHG reduction policies
  (energy security, air quality, health impacts)
• economy wide mitigation targets and comparable
  efforts (USA ! )
• significant role of the carbon market in
  supplementing domestic mitigation action
  (cost-effectiveness)
• prevent carbon leakage and ensure level playing
  field
• extend sectoral scope (shipping and aviation ! )
• allocation of mitigation efforts balanced
  approach (cf. mitigation potentials,
  capabilities, national circumstances and
  responsibilities)

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Mitigation efforts in developing countries EU
vision

• Necessary level of ambition 15-30 deviation
  from baseline in 2020 (complementing 25-40
  reduction commitment in A1 countries)
• Needs to be differentiated amongst DCs (on the
  basis of distinguishing criteria)
• Nature and level of ambition of MRV mitigation
  actions by DCs will differ between countries and
  sectors and could include inter alia such options
  as sectoral approaches, incl sectoral crediting
  and sectoral trading, technology cooperation, and
  SD PAMs
• A part of the effort can be achieved through
  no-regret measures
• Emissions reductions sold on the carbon market
  not included (cf. offset of A1 emissions)
• Additional support through finance, DTT, capacity
  building

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EU thinking on differentiation

• 4 groups among NAI countries
• NAI developed countries
• Advanced developing countries
• Other developing countries
• Least developing countries
• Differentiation
• Criteria (not to define rigid boxes ! )
• Tools and types of actions
• Coverage (which sectors?)
• Stringency (MRV)
• Support (which actions are supported?)
• Contribution to financing (also from NAI Parties)

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What type of mitigation actions in DCs ?
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EU vision on Adaptation

• Objectives
• Establish a Framework for Action on Adaptation
  (FAA), aimed at strengthening resilience to the
  negative impacts of CC
• making full use of the opportunities for
  sustainable development
• Principles
• partnership between developed and developing
  countries
• country led, mainstreamed adaptation
• Elements
• Mainstreaming (integration of adaptation actions
  into planning process)
• capacity building
• Risk management approaches
• adequate and predictable financial flows
  (priority most vulnerable)
• Mobilisation and cooperation of relevant
  organisations

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EU vision on Technology

• Key actions
• Technology needs assessments
• Enabling environments Capacity building
• Additional actions
• Technology oriented agreements (TOAs)
• technology information platform
• Means
• Finance
• Institutional arrangements

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EU vision on Finance

• principles effectiveness, efficiency and equity
• carbon market will deliver much of the needed
  finance
• public funding on an international level is key
  (leverage private sector investment)
• existing or new instruments ? Need for a careful
  assessment
• allocation of resources balance between
  supporting the poorest and most vulnerable
  countries (adaptation) and ensuring
  cost-effective reduction solutions (mitigation)

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Key messages

• Global warming must be kept below 2C in order to
  avoid most considerable impacts (--gt
  stabilisation at 450 ppm)
• This goal is achievable, but implies drastic and
  rapid shift towards low C economy
• Developed countries must take the lead (25-40
  reduction by 2020, 85 by 2050)
• DCs must also be engaged, by deviating from their
  baseline (15-30), in a graduated and
  differentiated manner
• Need for an enhanced framework on adaptation
• Need for scale-up of investment and financing

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Thank you !