Household

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Household family - past, present future

• Michael MurphyLondon School of Economics
• Prepared for ESRC/BSPS/ONS Public Policy Seminar
  Changing Household and Family Structure
  Including Complex Living Arrangements
• Thursday 18th May 2006
• City Hall, London

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Fertility - a long-term perspective Total
Fertility Rate, England and Wales, 1841-2005
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Mortality - a long-term perspective e0, England
and Wales, 1841-2006
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Households - a long-term perspective average
household size
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Over the past 150 years

• A first demographic transition from 1870s
• Fertility has halved
• Longevity has doubled
• Household size has halved
• A second demographic transition from 1970s
  (previous presentation)
• The future for families households?

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Household type, 1971 2004, Great Britain
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People in Households, 1971 2004, Great Britain
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People living alone by sex and age, Great Britain
Source General Household Survey, Office for
National Statistics
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Women aged 65 and over living alone in selected
European countries, 1970 2000
Percentages
Source Tomassini et al (2004)
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Proportions with different types of living kin by
age, Britain 1999
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In the next 25 years (by 2031)

• Total UK expected population growth approx 6.5
  million
• 5.6 million more older people (65)
• of which 2.3 million 80 over
• 1.2 million more working age (20-64)
• 0.3 million fewer children (0-19)

From Office for National Statistics 2004-based
projections (2005)
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Sex Ratio (Males per 100 Females), England
Wales 2001, 2011 2021 (2004-based projections)
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Projected population by age, sex and legal
marital status, England Wales, 2003 2031,
(000s)
2003
2031
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Projected population by age, sex and legal
marital status, England Wales, 2003 2031,
(000s)
2003
2031
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Projected population by age, sex and legal
marital status, England Wales, 2003 2031,
Females (Percentages)
http//www.gad.gov.uk/ (2003-based marital status
and cohabitation projections for England and
Wales, Population Trends 121)
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Proportions not partnered, 2003 2031, England
Wales
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Proportions Married and Cohabiting, 2003 2031,
England and Wales
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The Next Four Decades Living mothers of
50-year-olds and living children of 80-year-old
women, England Wales
(Murphy and Grundy, 2003)
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Proportion of women aged 80, married with
living child(ren)
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Households, by type 1971-2026, England
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One person households by age, 2003 2026, England
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Actual and projected average household size,
England 1961-2026
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The Next Three Decades Projected proportions
married 80-year-old men women, England Wales
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Growth of the foreign-born population, 1951-2001,
UK
Source Census Office for National Statistics
General Register Office for Scotland Northern
Ireland Statistics and Research Agency.
Population Trends 122 p 12
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Older women living alone by sex and ethnic
group, 2001
Source Census 2001, Office for National
Statistics Census 2001, General Register Office
for Scotland Census 2001, Northern Ireland
Statistics and Research Agency
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Families with dependent children by ethnic group
and family type, 2001, UK
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Conclusions

• Family household change likely to be
  evolutionary rather than revolutionary in decades
  to come (in contrast to last 30 years)
• The centrality of the family remains
• The ageing of the population will have a
  continuing major influence
• More attention needed to less visible (and
  measurable) aspects such as LAT stepfamilies
• Diversity of population will require continuing
  special attention