Puget Sound Regional Council PSRC

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Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC)
Forecasts Planning Data
Municipal Water Demand Forecast Advisory Committee
June 21, 2006 Mark Simonson, Principal
Planner Timothy Michalowski, Associate Planner
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What is the PSRC?

• PSRC coordinates regional transportation,
  economic and growth planning for Central Puget
  Sound region.
• Membership
• King, Kitsap, Snohomish Pierce Counties
• 70 Cities
• 4 Ports
• 7 Transit Agencies
• Tribal Governments
• State Agencies
• Associate Members

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PSRC Guidelines

• The Regional Transportation Planning Organization
  (RTPO)
• Authorized under state law
• Develop and adopt a regional transportation plan
• Certify transportation elements of local
  comprehensive plans to conform to requirements of
  state law and are consistent with the regional
  transportation plan
• The Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO)
• Designated by US DOT for ensuring that
  transportation planning is conducted through a
  "continuous, cooperative, and comprehensive (3-C)
  process
• Federal Law requires maintenance of database to
  forecast and monitor economic, demographic, and
  travel conditions in the region
• Interlocal Agreement
• Support travel demand modeling for the region
• Support major planning documents (Vision 2020,
  Destination 2030)

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PSRC Internal Organization
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Targets vs. Forecasts

• Targets
• Imply some form of policy decision or statement
  of a goal
• Are meant to be a target that expresses, intent
  and aspiration while still being based in
  credible assumptions
• Forecasts
• Represent objective estimates of the future based
  on value-neutral analysis
• Recognizes market forces and overall regional,
  state, and national trends.
• Jurisdictions plans will of necessity
  incorporate both
• TARGETS and FORECASTS
• (And.they do not have to be the same number.)

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The Future Year Universe

• Targets
• County and City Targets
• Population, Households, Employment (sometimes)
• Forecasts
• PSRC
• Population, Employment, Households
• OFM (Office of Financial Management)
• Population Forecasts
• OFM prepares 20-yr growth management forecasts
  every 5 years
• Counties must use a number within the range given
  for their GMA planning
• OFM forecasts are historically accurate, and
  legally defensible

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Forecasts / Targets Framework
Growth Management Act (GMA)
Growth Management Hearings Boards
PSRCForecasts
Multi-County Planning Policies
OFMAllocations
Countywide Planning Policies
Growth Targets
BuildableLands
Comprehensive Plans of Cities Counties
Development Regulations
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King County OFM Forecast
OFM Forecast for 2022 -High 2,246,922
-Mid 2,049,502 -Low 1,872,165
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King County OFM Forecast
OFM Forecast for 2022 -High 2,246,922
-Mid 2,049,502 -Low 1,872,165
Target Population in 2022 2,048,500
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Pierce County OFM Forecast
OFM Forecast for 2022 -High 1,027,718
-Mid 912,711 -Low 813,466
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Pierce County OFM Forecast
OFM Forecast for 2022 -High 1,027,718
-Mid 912,711 -Low 813,466
Target Population in 2022 912,700
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Snohomish County OFM Forecast
OFM Forecast for 2025 -High 1,062,903
-Mid 929,314 -Low 795,725
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Snohomish County OFM Forecast
OFM Forecast for 2025 -High 1,062,903
-Mid 929,314 -Low 795,725
Target Population in 2025 914,239
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PSRC Forecast Methodology

• Inputs
• Demographic Trends
• US Forecasts
• Zonal Data
• Two-Step, Top Down Process
• 1. PSEF - Puget Sound Economic Forecasts
• Regional (King, Kitsap, Pierce, Snohomish)
• 2. DRAM / EMPAL
• EMPAL Employment Allocation Model
• DRAM Disaggregate Residential Allocation Model
• Review Process
• To account for items NOT in forecasts
• 3-4 year Update Cycle

4 CountyRegional Forecasts(Pop, Emp, HH)
219 Forecast Analysis Zones (FAZ)
Individual Counties
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PSRC Model Organization
Regional Forecast Model -STEP- (-PSEF-)
Land Use Sketch Planning Tool -Index-
Land Use Model -DRAM/EMPAL- (-UrbanSim-)
Transportation Tax Base / Revenue Model
Travel Demand Model -EMME/2 current- (-EMME/2
improved-)
Air Quality Model (Emmissions) -Mobile 6-
-Current-(Future)
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PSEF Regional Model

• Economic base theory
• Pre-1983, sectors were either export (basic) or
  local (non-basic)
• Revised to recognize aspect of both in each
  sector
• Economic growth main driver of population change
  (in-migration)
• Exogenous US forecasts as input
• Historically purchased from vendor
• Econometric model equations forecast variables
  simultaneously
• How well will the region do relative to the US?
• Boeing, Microsoft variables projected
  independently

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DRAM / EMPAL Methodology

• How attractive is growth in that particular
  variable?
• Jobs lead population
• Feedback loops with travel model

EMPAL
DRAM
Base Year Employment
Current Yr Employment
Base Year Pop HH
Current Yr Pop HH
Base Year Land Use
Current Yr Land Use
Initial Travel Impedances (From PSRC Travel
Demand Model)
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DRAM / EMPAL Geography

• 219 Forecast Analysis Zones (FAZ)
• Built from 2000 Census Tracts

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PSRC Forecast Products

• What is produced?
• Variables
• Population
• Employment (Jobs)
• Households
• Time Details (Decadal)
• Spatial Details
• FAZ Forecast Analysis Zones
• TAZ Transit Analysis Zones
• NOT based on built environment data
• How are forecasts released
• Adoption vs. Working Products
• Posted on website

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Small Area Forecast - Variables

• Total Population
• Household population
• Group Quarters Population
• Total Households
• Multi-Family
• Single-Family
• Income Quartiles
• Total Jobs by Sector
• Manufacturing
• WTCU (Wholesale, Transportation, Communications,
  Utilities)
• Retail
• FIRES (Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, Services)
• Government and Education

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Sample Forecast Report
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Limitations Review Process

• Impacts of comprehensive plan / zoning
  designations
• Driven by trend data, major departures from that
  not easily recognized by models
• Large projects or major planned developments
• Cascadia, Redmond Ridge, etc.
• Special economic drivers
• Boeing
• Military Base Closures

• PSRC relies on regional staff review of forecasts
  to counter the model limitations
• Regional Technical Forum Technical Advisory
  Committee
• Other frequent forecast data users (consultants,
  utilities, etc.)

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Use of Forecasts

• What users need to consider before applying PSRC
  forecasts to planning or project work
• Regional vs. Sub-Regional Studies
• It is strongly suggested that when using the
  forecasts prepared by the Regional Council, other
  sources of similar data, particularly data found
  in local or county comprehensive plans, should be
  considered.
• Model Versioning plan
• Produce suite of models at regular intervals in
  the future.

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PSRC Model History
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Urbansim Preview

• Modeling Actors instead of Zones (FAZ)
• Notable Advantages
• Potential new output (built SQ FT, Land Value)
• Direct modeling of land use plans
• Direct modeling of development constraints
  (wetlands, floodplains etc.)
• Very Data Hungry
• County Assessors records
• Parcel data
• Employment data
• Land Use Plans
• Environmental Constraints

Modeled Unit 150 meter Gridcell (5.5 acres)
790,000 Gridcells in region (vs. 219 FAZ)