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1
National Risk and Interdependency Analysis for
Switzerland
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ULRIKE KASTRUP World Congress on Risk, June
22-25, 2003, Brussels/Belgium
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History of Risk Analysis

• Threat Analysis for Switzerland 1987
• Comprehensive Risk Analysis for Switzerland
  (1991-1999)
• Parliamentary motion and postulates for a
  current, proactive, and inclusive assessment of
  all national threats and risks that takes into
  account their complexity and interdependencies .
• Risk Profile Switzerland 1999 , 34 Scenarios
  (unpublished)
• 1999 Transfer to Swiss Institute of Technology
  (ETH Zurich) / Center for Security Studies
• - stronger academic / international focus

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Classical Definition
Risk?

• RISK damage x probability

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Comparison of Scenarios
not worst-case!
probability
Breakdown of Information Infrastructure
I
very likely
II
Greenhouse Effect
Extremism Terrorism
likely
Use of WMD
Energy Shortage
little likely
Chemical accident
Dam break
III
unlikely
IV
Failure in Nuclear power plant
very unlikely
damage
very little
little
moderate
big
disastrous
crushing
After Risk Profile Switzerland (1999,
unpublished)
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Risk Profile 99

• Disadvantages
• Same structure corset, falsifies comparing
  apples and pears
• Technical/natural science approach, social
  sciences approach unconsidered
• Reality is more complex interdependencies
  remained unconsidered
• Unsuitable as strategic base for allocating
  means/funds (political process)

• Advantages
• same structure of study allows comparison
• Pilot project compilation of vastly different
  scenario types from natural sciences, technology,
  military, social sciences fields

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Comprehensive Risk Analysis

• Risk Analysis XXI

In the future Risk and vulnerability analysis
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Project Environment
C E N T E R F O R S E C U R I T Y S T U D
I E S Prof. Dr. Andreas Wenger, Director
Research Team Swiss Security Policy
Research Team Integrated Risk Analysis
Creation
Knowledge
Application
Exchange
DSP
GR
GST
DAP
BWL
others
NAZ
Spiez
BK
BZS
International Focus
Swiss Focus
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Scenarios 2003
37 scenarios, 16 already updated
http//www.ssn.ethz.ch/ssnpublihouse/index.cfm?S3
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Content Scenarios
A Basics (definitions) situation in
Switzerland and abroad B Scenario (Switzerland
and foreign countries) C Statistics and
probability D Potential damage E
Hazard/threat, risk and early warning time F
Interdependencies G Consequences for
Switzerland H Legal basis and
responsibilities I References
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Risk?

• QUANTIFICATION of risks in the area of social
  sciences is
• difficult to impossible
• ? quantitative COMPARISON OF RISKS in security
  politics that comprises political as well as
  non-political hazards and threats cannot be
  performed to everybodys satisfaction
• ? restricted to INTERDEPENDENCIES no comparison!

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RiA XXI

• NEW
• PROCESS vs. Profile cooperative and interactive
  with experts
• Understanding of hazards
• HOLISTIC AWARENESS (Gesamtbewusstsein) vs. One
  Final Product
• SECURITY POLITIC CONTEXT vs quantification
• POOL vs direct comparison
• INTERDEPENDENCIES vs. isolated scenarios
• role of Switzerland in the broader INTERNATIONAL
  environment (Europe, World)

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Switzerland's International Role
NPPs in Europe in a radius of up to 1000km from
Switzerland Scenario NPP failure (M. Baggenstos
(HSK) und M. Blätter (NAZ), 2003)
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Interdependency

• Individual scenarios that influence other
  elements without being influenced themselves
• Influence and are influenced
• Are strongly influenced by other elements without
  influencing themselves.

active
critical
passive
14
Possible Chain Reaction
Interdependency
Diseases / epidemics
Chemical accident
Failure NPP
Earthquake
water shortage/ pollution
Dam break
Flood
Multi criteria analysis (MCA), Morphological
analysis, Systems thinking, Scenario-based
methods, Causal mapping techniques, Fault / event
tree analysis, Hierarchical holographic modeling,
Software evaluation (ICI Think Tools, Computer
Aided Scenario and Problem Evaluation Routine
CASPER
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Workshop

• Extensive discussion of interdependencies between
  individual risks with local experts
• Identification of critical risk-clusters, which
  are used to demonstrate and evaluate the full
  complexities of the consequences of particular
  events consequences that would likely be
  overlooked if a catastrophic event were
  investigated independently
• The risk and interdependency analyses will
  eventually allow local authorities to determine
  and formulate appropriate responses to all risks
  investigated

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What are potential consequences of a war on Iraq
for Switzerland?
brainstorming
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What are potential consequences of a war on Iraq
for Switzerland?
interdependencies
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What are potential consequences of a war on Iraq
for Switzerland?
Creating better overview
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What are potential consequences of a war on Iraq
for Switzerland?
Further refinement -how strong? -short, middle,
long term? -who can intervene?
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Contact
Dr. Ulrike Kastrup Center for Security
Studies ETH Zentrum / WEC CH-8092
Zürich Switzerland Tel. [phone] Fax
41 (0) 1 632 13 72 E-mail kastrup_at_sipo.gess.et
hz.ch Websites International Relations and
Security Network (ISN) www.isn.ethz.ch
Comprehensive Risk Analysis and Management
Network (CRN) www.isn.ethz.ch/crn Swiss
Foreign and Security Policy Network (SSN)
www.ssn.ethz.ch