Can we Maintain Grid Reliability Without Building Wires

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Can we Maintain Grid Reliability Without
Building Wires?

• Brian Silverstein
• Manager of Network Planning
• For more information see www2.transmission.bpa.gov
  /Projects/NonWire

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(No Transcript)
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Non-Transmission Alternatives

• Non-transmission alternatives, such as
  conservation, demand response, distributed
  generation, and better siting of large generators
  can defer or reduce the need for transmission.
• BPA targets for FY03
• Establish an external Round Table
• Implement a Demand Exchange Pilot Program
• Complete detailed analysis for three projects
• Identify and develop a plan to address
  institutional barriers

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Multiple Screening
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Using Screening Criteria
Project
Select Preferred Solution(s)
Not a good candidate for NCAs Focus on
transmission fix
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Improving Understanding
Develop Screening Criteria
Pilot Programs
Project 1
Project 2
Project 3
Alternatives
Detailed Study
Alternatives
Objective to better understand measures and
institutional barriers to refine our tool kit
Objective to improve and simplify the
planning/analysis process
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Olympic Peninsula Pilot

• Objective is to reduce demand or generate power
  at strategic locations to reduce loading when
  needed.
• Market Based reductions via Demand Exchange.
• Web-based bidding technology.
• Can be large individual loads (generation) or
  utility aggregated demand reductions
  (generation).
• Metering to ensure that reduction (generation) is
  delivered.
• Systems are in place, negotiations are underway
  and program will be exercised next year.

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Kangley-Echo Lake Study

• Objectives
• Identify technologies that would be cost
  effective alternatives.
• Evaluate the sensitivity of the cost
  effectiveness analysis to variations in key input
  assumptions.
• Estimate whether achievable load reduction from
  those cost effective alternatives would be
  sufficient to defer the line.

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Load Flow Distribution Factors

• Load reduction at different locations will have a
  different effect on Covington transformer
  loadings due to network power flow interactions
• Load weighted average distribution factor across
  Puget Sound Area is 32
• 122MW required at Covington translates to 381MW
  within the Puget Sound Area

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Study Results

• Transmission avoided costs are low
• 25 million of construction costs and 50,000 of
  annual OM costs
• 1.5 million for a one year deferral
• 12.25/kW-year at Covington or 3.92 /kW-year in
  the Puget Sound Area based on average load flow
  distribution factors
• The economic value of the energy loss savings
  from the line is greater than the cost of the
  line
• 11MW reduction of peak losses on the transmission
  system
• Annual energy savings of 48,180MWh
• 2 million at a market price of 40/MWh

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Study Results

• Demand Response (DR) is the most cost-effective
  alternative from a transmission rate perspective
• DR focuses load reduction on only the hours when
  needed for system reliability
• However, incentive levels are low compared to
  other programs
• 3.92/kW-yr available for DR incentives
• Range of incentives from surveyed programs
  4.80-128/kW-yr

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Study Results
A high level of load reduction and additional
generation is required to defer the line
Load Relief and Generation Requirements for a
3-Year Deferral of the KEL Line
Base Case - 841MW (269MW) Winter 2005-2006 Load
Reduction Requirement within Puget Sound Area
100 of Potential 234MW (75 MW)
28 of Potential 1,380MW (125MW)
100 of Potential 277MW (70MW)
Load Relief Aluminum Smelter
Operation of Existing Local Generation
Load Relief from Area Industrial Load
( xMW) reduction at Covington
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Round Table

• To provide insights from a broad stakeholder base
  to ensure that BPAs transmission planning
  process is balanced.
• To provide a forum for identifying and responding
  to key issues.
• To address institutional issues that go beyond
  BPA.
• To help build regional confidence and acceptance
  for a new approach to transmission planning.

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Institutional Barriers

• Who pays, who implements and how to capture
  economic value of measures
• Lack of transparency in transmission planning
• Lack of incentives to do accurate forecasting
• Lost revenues for transmission provider and
  distribution utilities
• Inaccurate peak-load price signals for energy and
  TD customers
• Uncertainty about reliability of measures