Work Plan Site 2 (Ludhiana)

1
Work PlanSite 2 (Ludhiana)
2
Vulnerability

• Vulnerability to GEC is not an issue at present,
  but may be a serious issue in next 5-10 years, if
  the trend of production pattern depending upon
  groundwater resources and rice continues.
• Therefore, to work out vulnerability, some kind
  of sensitivity analysis will have to be done in
  Indian Punjab.

3
Methodology

• I would like to work on both the methodologeis
  suggested by Polly and try to test which works
  better.
• I am more in favour of the methodology, which is
  based on some numbers rather than one, which is
  highly subjective.
• Indexes are used all over the world despite
  criticism. If the index serves our purpose in the
  sense it reflects what we have observed over
  years in terms of vulnerability and production
  system being influenced by GEC, we can retain
  Index methodology.

4
Methodology

• I will be interested to build some small model
  describing relationship of production, GEC and
  vulnerability for Ludhiana district and see the
  outcomes by shocking GEC variables.
• Sensitivity analysis (through tabular analysis)
  can also be done to assess the impact of changes
  in global environment particularly groundwater
  and temperature on production, income and then
  access to food.

5
Data sources

• Plenty of data (experimental as well collected
  from farmers fields) on production sensitivity
  to changes in temperature and water availability
  is available and can be used. We have got project
  running since last 25 years at farmers level
  computing cost of production for important crops.
  We can use that data relating to central belt
  (quite representative for Ludhiana district) and
  assess the changes in environmental variables on
  cost of production of wheat and rice and further
  on income and then further sensitize it to future
  more severe changes in global environment.
• Food utilization data will have to be collected
  from the respondents. The question is from whom?
• -Rural households or only farm households or
  rural as well as urban households
• -second, small, marginal and other households,
  agricultural labourers. Small artisans living in
  rural areas, industrial laboureres in urban
  areas, middle class urban families and so and so
  forth
• -Third, what should be the sample size.

6
Computing vulnerability

• How ? from the primary data collected now from
  the respondents
• Will it not be highly subjective, when we will
  ask question
• -how your consumption pattern will undergo change
  if the production falls due to lower availability
  of groundwater or rise in temperature
• -how vulnerability of urban consumers will be
  influenced due to fall in production when the
  trade is getting liberalized and grains can be
  imported almost at the same price. I understand
  the impact on farmers income and consumption