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Conditional Probability ...is the probability of an event occurring given that another event also ... And, what is the probability that this boy is a carrier? ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Three%20hourly%20exams%20plus%20final%20exam%20(450%20pts),


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Grades
  • Three hourly exams plus final exam (450 pts),
  • You will have 1.5 hours to complete each exam,
  • You will be allowed one (1) 11 x 8.5 crib
    sheet, both sides, for each exam,
  • Exams - 150 points each, Final Exam
    cumulative.
  • Quizzes will be given every Wednesday (total
    100 pts),
  • will cover the basics of the assigned reading
  • (including that day's assignment),
  • quizzes 12.5 points each, 15 minutes,
  • No Make-up Quizzes, absolutely no exceptions,

3
Know This
1
1/2
1/2
1
1/4
1/2
1/4
1/2
1/2
1
Assignment Correlate this with the observed
phenotype.
4
Mendels Results, F2 DihybridP generation cross
YYRR x yyrr F1 generation cross YyRr x YyRr
  • Y_ R_ 315
  • yyR_ 108
  • Y_rr 101
  • yyrr 32

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Forked-Line Method
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Genotypes Y--R--
1/4 RR
1/4 YY
1/2 Rr
1/4 RR
1/2 Yy
1/2 Rr
9/16
yellow/round
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Genotypes Y--rr
1/4 YY
1/2 Yy
1/4 yy
8
Genotypes Y--rr
1/4 YY
1/4 rr
1/2 Yy
1/4 rr
3/16
yellow/wrinkled
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Genotypes yyR--
1/4 YY
1/2 Yy
1/4 yy
10
Genotypes yyR--
1/4 yy
1/2 Rr
1/4 yy
1/4 RR
3/16
green/round
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Genotypes yyrr
1/4 YY
1/2 Yy
1/4 yy
12
Genotypes yyrr
1/4 yy
1/4 rr


green/wrinkled
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F2 via Forked Line
  • Y--R-- yellow/round 9/16
  • Y--rr yellow/wrinkled 3/16
  • yyR-- green/round 3/16
  • yyrr green/wrinkled 1/16

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Why use Forked-Line Method?
  • Based on a classic dihybrid cross (YYRR x yyrr),
    what is the probability that an organism in the
    F2 generation will have round seeds and breed
    true for green cotyledons?

15
OK?
YR
Yr
yR
yr
YYRR
YYRr
YyRR
YyRr
YR
YYrr
Yyrr
YYRr
YyRr
Yr
yyRR
yyRr
YyRR
YyRr
yR
YyRr
Yyrr
yyRr
yyrr
yr
3/16 p 0.1875
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BetterYyRr x YyRr (F1)
3/16 p 0.1875
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Best (?)YyRr x YyRr (F1)
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Forked-Line Method(phenotypes)
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Example
  • P Rr YY x rrYy
  • Probability Rr YY in offspring

1/2 Rr
1/2 rr
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Example
  • P Rr Yy x RRYy
  • Probability of Rr Yy in offspring

1/2 Yy
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Using ProbabilityLecture 3 Example
YYSs x YySs
YY x Yy Ss x Ss
YY or Yy SS Ss ss
(p) Y_ 1
(p) S_ .75
Product Rule (p) Y_S_ .75
(p) ss .25
Product Rule (p) Y_ss .25
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Humans ?
  • Is it possible to ascertain the mode of
    inheritance of genes in organisms where designed
    crosses and the production of large numbers of
    offspring are not practical?

Pedegree an orderly diagram of a families
relevant genetic features.
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Assignment figure out this pedigree.
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From Previous Page
Assignment figure out this pedigree.
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Symbols
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More Symbols
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And more
2
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Where Do you Start?
Aa Aa or AA Aa
Aa
Recessive Trait? or Dominant Trait?
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What More Can You Say?
Aa Aa or AA Aa
Aa
Recessive Trait
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Predictions
What if you were a genetic counselor? What are
the odds that this individual carries the trait?
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Predictions
What if you were a genetic counselor? What are
the odds that this individual carries the trait?
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Conditional Probability
Aa
Aa
?
1/4 AA
1/4 Aa
1/4 aa
1/4 Aa
1 1 1
(p)Aa 2/3 .66
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Conditional Probability
  • is the probability of an event occurring given
    that another event also occurs...
  • P(event) without the condition
  • p(condition)


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Conditional Probability
  • Example With a 6-sided die, what is the
    probability of rolling a 2, given that an even
    number is rolled on the die

p(2 roll even ) p(2 roll)
p(even)
p(2 roll even ) 1/6
1/2
1/3
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probability without the conditionprobability of
the condition
p(probability of being a heterozygote)
1/2
p(probability of A_)
3/4
2/3
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Conditional Probability
p(event) without the condition
p(condition)
  • Use the formula,
  • Or use a Punnett Square,
  • Or...

p(AB)
37
Kidney Disease
If 1 and 2 had an offspring, what is the
probability that their first kid would show the
phenotype?
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A Simplification
  • Unless otherwise specified (or the pedigree
    suggests otherwise), the traits that we will
    track will be rare,
  • We will assume a p 0 that a non-familial mate
    carries the trait.

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Kidney Disease
  • non-familial mates from outside of the
    family,
  • if k is the recessive trait, then these
    individuals are KK.

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Kidney Disease
If 1 and 2 had an offspring, what is the
probability that their first kid would show the
phenotype?
1/8 .125
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Kidney Disease
If 1 and 2 had an offspring, what is the
probability that the first kid would be a boy,
and show the phenotype?
42
Kidney Disease
If 1 and 2 had an offspring, what is the
probability that the first kid would be a boy,
and show the phenotype?
1/16
x 1/2
43
Practice 1
Round (R) and Yellow (Y) are dominant.
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Practice 2
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Practice 3
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Questions
  • Dont rely on the answers in the back of the book
    to solve your problems
  • Dont just solve them, but understand the
    principles needed to solve them.

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a
b
f
c
e
d
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Assignments
  • Read from Chapter 3, 3.6 (pp. 100-105),
  • Master Problems3.12, 3.15, 3.20,
  • Chapter 4, Problems 1, 2,
  • Questions 4.1 - 4.4, 4.6, 4.7, 4.9, 4.11 - 4.14,
    4.16, 4.19 - 4.20.
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