Regulation of Population Growth India

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• Regulation of Population Growth - India
• Background
• 1952 First country to institute national policy
  to limit population growth
• Family planning 13 of national health budget
• Result Annual population growth rate 1.7
  today vs. 1.3 in 1940s
• Why didnt the methods work?
• India very diverse, yet government selected
  blanket population control method for entire
  country

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• Regulation of Population Growth - India
• Methods
• Voluntary sterilization
• Pre-1977 Vasectomies (male)
• Post-1977 Tubal ligation (female)
• Followed change in political regime precipitated
  in part by anger over coercive nature of
  vasectomy program
• Cash incentives to
• Medical personnel
• Program managers
• Individuals accepting sterilization
• Equivalent to three weeks of average wages
  (150)
• Problems
• Sterilization method offers little flexibility
• Chosen largely by older women who already had
  children and werent planning to have more

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• Regulation of Population Growth - India
• Alternatives
• Suggestion that increasing economic prosperity
  should lead to a decline in population growth
  rate
• Correlation between GDP and TFR is weak
• Most important social factor affecting TFR seems
  to be female literacy rate
• Female literacy rate correlated positively with
• Higher age at marriage
• Greater contraceptive use
• Lower IMR
• All correlated with lower TFR

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• Regulation of Population Growth - India
• Female Literacy Kerala (Case Study)
• Kerala State in SW India high population
  density
• Per-capita GDP 63 of national average
• Pre-1970s higher growth rate than national
  average
• Between 1972 and 1991, TFR in Kerala dropped from
  4.6 to 1.8, the lowest in India (Why?)
• Reasons
• Higher social status for women than is typical
  for India. Leads to increased education, higher
  literacy rate (83 vs. 48 nationally)
• Better family planning services
• Marxist government that fosters egalitarianism
  (belief in individual equality) and imposes high
  taxation that supports education, health care and
  small family norm
• Prof. Virginia Abernethy (Vanderbilt)
• Fertility falls when women can profit from their
  work outside the home. A woman with an
  independent income does not have to marry young
  or barter sex or childbearing for support.

5

• Overpopulation Resource Availability
• Resource Costs
• In 1980, Julian Simon issued a public offer to
  stake US10,000 ... on my belief that the cost of
  non-government-controlled raw materials
  (including grain and oil) will not rise in the
  long run.
• Paul Ehrlich and two colleagues accepted
  challenge
• The Bet
• Ehrlich and colleagues selected five metals
  (chromium, copper, nickel, tin, tungsten) they
  felt would undergo large price increases.
• They purchased (on paper) 200 worth of each on
  Sep 29 1980.
• They designated Sep 29 1990 as the date to
  evaluate the bet.
• If the inflation-adjusted prices of these metals
  rose, Simon would pay Ehrlich 10,000. If the
  prices fell, Ehrlich would pay Simon the loss in
  value.
• During this 10-year period, the worlds
  population grew by over 800 million people.
• The price of each of the five metals dropped, in
  some cases substantially (e.g. tin fell from
  8.72/pound to 3.88/pound).
• Ehrlich lost the bet, to the tune of 576.07.

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• Critical Thinking - Tactics
• Bandwagon
• Everybody knows this is the case.
• Categorical Statement
• Implies no disagreement
• Deductive Reasoning
• A is true and B is true, therefore C is true
• Personal Attack
• Criticism of opponent instead of viewpoint
• Slanter
• Persuasion through inflammatory and exaggerated
  language
• Testimonial
• Citing a celebrity or authority to validate
  opinion

7

• Climate Change Greenhouse Gases
• Lettermans Top Ten George W. Bush Solutions For
  Global Warming
• NASA mission to turn down the sun's thermostat
• Federal subsidies to boost production of Cool
  Ranch Doritos
• Fast track Rumsfeld's "Colonize Neptune" proposal
• Convene Blue-Ribbon Committee to explore
  innovative ways of ignoring the problem
• Let Hillary worry about it when she takes over
• I dunno - tax cuts for the rich?
• Give the boys at Halliburton 90-billion dollar
  contract to patch hole in ozone
• Switch to Celsius so scorching 98 becomes frosty
  37
• Keep plenty of Bud on ice
• Invade Antarctica

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• Climate Change Greenhouse Gases
• Background
• Greenhouse Effect
• Gases absorb heat
• Natural Greenhouse Effect
• Mean planetary temperature 15 oC vs. -6 oC
• Enhanced Greenhouse Effect
• Due to GHGs emitted from human activity
• Greenhouse Gases
• Most important GHG is water vapor
• Accounts for 50 of natural GHE

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Greenhouse Gases
10
http//calspace.ucsd.edu/virtualmuseum/climatechan
ge2/07_2.shtml
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• Climate Change Greenhouse Gases
• Greenhouse Gases
• Long residence times indicate atmospheric
  concentrations will remain high even if emissions
  stop
• Other factors besides GHGs may influence global
  climate

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• Climate Change Other Factors
• Cloud Cover
• Reflects incoming radiation
• Difficult to estimate in climate models
• Effects vary in relation to altitude, thickness,
  composition
• Atmospheric Dust
• Important factor in cool period from 1930s to
  1960s
• Overwhelmed effects of rising CO2 during this
  period
• Produced by volcanic eruptions, dust from areas
  experiencing drought
• Cool period following eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in
  1992
• Mechanism behind Nuclear Winter scenario