Update on Air Quality Modeling

1
Update on Air Quality Modeling

• AQMP Advisory Group
• September 13, 2006

2
2007 AQMP Modeling Update

• Annual PM2.5
• Episodic PM2.5
• 8-Hour Ozone
• Rubidoux PM10

3
Modeling Inventory Modifications

• PM2.5
• - Apportionment paved road dust - Updated VOC
  emissions split files - Weekend VMT
  redistribution in Riverside
• Ozone
• - Weekend VMT redistribution in Riverside -
  Pleasure Craft split exhaust and
  evaporatives
• - Weekend lawn garden equipment - Gridded
  temperature profile adjustments

4
PM2.5 Modeling Methodology

• Annual CAMx one atmosphere approach
• Speciated rollback on components
• Relative Reduction Factor (RRFs)
• RRF calculated from 2005-2014 simulations
• Validated using MATESIII speciated data
• Apportioned to reference method concentrations
• Corroborating analysis speciated linear
  rollback

5
Preliminary Emissions Scenarios Evaluated

• San Pedro Bay Clean Air Plan Estimated
• Goods Movement Plan (GMP) Estimated
• Combinations of GMP and additional NOx and SOx
  emissions reductions

6
Selected Inventories Evaluated to Determine PM2.5
Range of Carrying Capacity
7
Preliminary Estimated PM2.5 Carrying Capacity
8
Uncertainties

• MATES III Data Analysis and Measurement
  Procedures
• Scaling to reference method
• Annual Simulations - monthly emissions -
  boundary conditions - MM5 5 Day simulation
  linkage
• Generic emissions reductions

9
PM2.5 Episodic Simulations

• Currently conducting simulations
• Day specific emissions
• MM5 (no FDDA) 5-day simulations
• Evaluating results

10
Ozone Simulations

• Multiple episodes
• RRF not split by weekend/weekday
• RRF calculated 2020-2002
• RRF site specific
• MM5 simulations with 4DDA

11
Future Year 8-Hour Ozone Design Values

• Approximate average RRF 0.9
• Applied to 3-year average design values (2001,
  2002, 2003)
• Estimated maximum design 117 ppb
• Across the board emissions reductions to develop
  isopleth

12
San Bernardino (August 1997 Episode)
PM2.5 VOC
482 Base
PM2.5NOx
597 Base
Preliminary Estimated Carrying Capacity 300 TPY
VOC 150 TPY NOX
13
Rubidoux PM10

• Ambient data projects that station will not
  attain standard this year
• Evaluating fugitive and road dust source
  contributions for potential local control --
  paved road dust (no curbs gutters) --
  dirt/gravel road usage -- open fields
  (tilling soil dumping)
• Rank best options for controls for possible
  maintenance plan and/or 2008 AQMP update

14
Next Steps

• Fine tune the base 2005 and 2002 simulations
• Simulate defined PM2.5 controls strategy to
  refine PM2.5 carrying capacity
• Reevaluate ozone control strategy and develop new
  control factors
• Refine ozone carrying capacity