%GDP

1
???????????????????? ?????????????????????????25
??????? 2551???????? ?????????
???????????????????? ??????? ?????????????
2
??????????????????

• ????????????????
• ????????????????????????????
• ????????????????
• ????? ????????????????????????
• ????????????
• ??????????
• ???? ?????????????

3
1. ????????????????
4
????????????????
???????????????????
??????????
?????????????
5
??????????????????????????
/GDP
56.5
Crisis
14.9
????? ?????????????????????? ??????????? ???.
6
2. ????????????????????????????
7
2. ?????????????????????????

• ?????????????????????????
• ????????????????????
• ???????????? ??????????????????????
• ???????????? ??????????????????????
• ?????????????????????

8
?????????????????????????????
????? ????????????????????????????
9
????????????????????????
????? ????????????????????????????
10
????????????????????????????
????? ????????????????????????????????????
?????????? 2548 ???????????
11
????????????????????????
????? ????????????????????????????
12
????????????????????????????
????? ????????????????????????????????????
?????????? 2548 ???????????
13
???????????????????????????????

• ?????????????????????????????? ??????????????
  2545-2550
• ??????????????????? ???????? ?????????
• ??????????????????? ????????? ??????? ? (gt 80)
• ??????????????????? ???. (gt 60)
• ??????????????????????????????
• ???????????? ????????????????????

14
???????????????????????????????
??????????
??????????
????? ???????????????????????
15
????????????????

• ?????????????????????????????????? (Fiscal
  Impulse) ????????????????? Heller ?????? (1986)
• ?????????????? Vector Auto Regression (VAR)
  ?????????????????????????????? GDP
  ????????????????????????????????????????????
  ?????? ???????????? ???????????????????
  ???????????? ??????????????????????
  ????????????????????????

16
3. ?????????????????????????????3.1
??????????????????
17
Keynesian approach and crowding out
????????????????????????

• key assumptions price rigidity, excess capacity
  and liquidity constraints
• IS-LM model low investment elasticity wrt. r
  and high elasticity of Dm wrt r cause low
  crowding out effect
• Mundell-Flemming model fixed or float ER system
  can affect effectiveness of FP
• nominal rigidities and high effect of ER on price
  can alleviate price pressure
• crowding out and wealth effect

18
Non-Keynesian Approach ????????????????????????

• Rational expectations and Ricardian equivalence
• expansionary fiscal contraction and ricardian
  effect
• permanent and transitory income
• household 's behavior to smooth the consumption
• Supply side effect
• Lucas (1975) and Sargent and Wallace (1975) FP
  and MP affect only the domestic price.
• under full prod. capacity, fiscal expansion may
  be crowed out by higher price
• the exception being whether the fiscal expansion
  leads to the productivity enhancement
• Institutional factor

19
Key conditions to support the fiscal multiplier

• fiscal expansions focus on increased labour
  productivity and capital stock
• low price pressure and supported by accommodative
  MP
• excess capacity, fixed ER system and hh 's
  limitted forward looking and liquidity
  constraints
• low public debt and no problem of financing

20
Key conditions to decrease the fiscal multiplier

• crowding out through rising interest rates,
  depreciated ER and higher imports
• households are Ricardian
• debt sustainability problem and large risk premia
  on interest rates
• increased uncertainty resulted from expansionary
  fiscal policy

21
3.2 ?????????????????????
22
3.2 ?????????????????????

• Fiscal Impulse
• Renee Philip and John Janssen (2002)
  Indicators of Fiscal Impulse for New Zealand, New
  Zealand Treasury Working Paper 02/30.
• Fiscal multiplier
• Florian Hoppner (2001) A VAR Analysis of the
  Effects of Fiscal Policy in Germany. ?????
• Roberto Perotti (2002) Estimating the Effects
  of Fiscal Policy in OECD Country.
• Seok-Kyun Hur (2006) Measuring the
  Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Korea

23
????????????????? Multiplier ?????? VAR
24
4. ????????????
25
???????????? Fiscal Impulse

• Fiscal Impulse (FI)
• ????????????????????????????????? 2536 2550
• ???????????????? Fiscal Stance (FS) ????????
• FSt (r0Yt g0 Yt) (Rt Gt)
• ???? FSt (r0Yt - Rt ) (g0 Yt Gt)
• ?????? FIt FSt FSt-1
• r0 R0/Y0 ?????????????????? GDP ???????
• g0 G0/Y0 ??????????????????? GDP ???????
• Yt Actual GDP ???? t
• Yt Potential GDP ???? t
• Rt ???????????????? t
• Gt ????????????????? t
• ????? ??? ?? 2550 ??? Actual GDP ??? Potential
  GDP ?????????????????

26
??????????
Fiscal Stance
????????????? ?? Stance ??? Expansion
????????????? ?? Stance ??? Contraction
Fiscal Impulse
??????????????? ????????????????????
???????/??
27
???????????? Fiscal Multiplier

• VAR Analysis ???????????????????????
  ?????????????????????????? ??? GDP
• Y t ß0 S ßs Y t-s e t
• ??????????? ?????? ????????????????? ??? (1)
  ???????????? (Current) (2) ????????????
  (Capital) (3) ??????????????????? (Cur_tr) (4)
  ??????????????????? (Cap_tr) ?????????????????????
  ?????? ??? (1) GDP (2) ?????????????? (PC) ???
  (3) ???????????????? (PI)
• Lag Length 2 ??????
• ????????????????????? 1997Q3-2007Q4
• ??????????????????????????????? Granger
  Causality Test

N
S 1
28
5. ??????????
29
?????????? Fiscal Stance

??????????
?????????????
???????????????????
????? ???????????????????????????????????????
30
?????????? Fiscal Impulse

??????????
?????????????
???????????????????
????? ???????????????????????????????????????
31
Revenue Buoyancy
????? ???????????????????
32
Implied Multiplier
Response of GDP_SA to Current_SA (1997Q3-2007Q4)
Implied Multiplier
Response of GDP_SA to Current transfer_SA
(1997Q3-2007Q4)
Implied Multiplier
Periods after shock
33
Implied Multiplier
Response of GDP_SA to Capital_SA (1997Q3-2007Q4)
Implied Multiplier
Dep
Response of GDP_SA to Capital transfer_SA
(1997Q3-2007Q4)
Implied Multiplier
cs
Periods after shock
34
????????????????????????????????????????????
??????
M
????? NESDB ??????????? ???.
35
????

• ?????????????????? ?? 2540 ???????????????????????
  ???????????????????? ?????? Momentum
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  
• ?? 2544 ????????????????????????
  ????????????????????????????
• ????????? 2544 ???????????????????????????????????
  ???????????????????
• ???????????????????????????????????????????
  ???????????????????????????????????????????????

36
????

• ????????????????????
• ?????????? ????????????????? ???????????
• ?????????????
• 2540-2541 ?????????????? ?????????? IMF
• ?????????????????????????? ?????????????????
  ?????????????? ????????????????????????????
  ???????????????????????????????????
• ???????????????????
• 2545-2546 ?????????????? ???????????????????????
  ?????
• 2547-2548 ???????????
• 2550 ?????????????? ????????????????????????????
  ???????????????????????

37
????

• ?????????????????????????????? ????????????????
  ??????
• ???????????? ???????????? ??????????????????????
  ?????????????????? 1
• ???????????????????????????????????????
• ???????????????????????????
• ??????????????????? ?????????????????? 1 ???
• ?????????????????? ???????????????????????????????
  ??????? ????????? ????????????
  ???????????????????????????????????????????????
• ??????????????????????????????

38
????????????????????

• ??????????????????? ????????????????
• ?????????????????????????????? Productivity
  ??????????????????????????
• ??????????????????????????????
• ??????????????????? ??????????????????????? 1
• Local Government ????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????
• ???????????????????????????????
  ????????????????????????????
• ?????????????????????? -- ????????????????????????
  ????????????????????????????????????????????
• ???????????????????????????????????????????
  ?????????????????

39
QA