A Short PreMIDAS History

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A Short Pre-MIDAS History

• Feb Sept 2001
• June 2001
• Sept 2001
• Dec 2002
• 2002-2003
• May 2004

• Foot and Mouth outbreak
• Dark Winter exercise
• Anthrax mailings
• DHHS Council on Public Health Preparedness
  Modeling Initiatives Smallpox Working Group
• NIH Meetings on Infectious Disease Modeling
• MIDAS established by NIH

Feb Sept 2001 June 2001 Sept 2001 Dec
2002 2002-2003 May 2004

• Foot and Mouth outbreak
• Dark Winter exercise
• Anthrax mailings
• DHHS Council on Public Health Preparedness
  Modeling Initiatives Smallpox Working Group
• NIH Meetings on Infectious Disease Modeling
• MIDAS established by NIH

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• As a collaborative network of scientists, MIDAS
  leads in researching the use of computational and
  mathematical models that will prepare the nation
  to respond to outbreaks of infectious diseases. 

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Models are incomplete representations of events
Everyone has a model.
Models help make our assumptions transparent.
Models allow us to do virtual experiments.
Models are tools for making decisions.
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Models and Policy are uneasy partners

• Interpreting models for policy and decision
  making is not straightforward

Mixing Spatial distribution Travel Disease
parameters Behavior Evolution Ecology Climate Poli
cy implications
The meaning and utility of modeling for policy
and decision making needs honest and deep
discussion.
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Informatics Group RTI National Center for
Supercomputing Applications Pittsburgh
Supercomputer Center National Science Foundation
and TeraGrid
Research Groups University of Pittsburgh Fred
Hutchinson Cancer Research Center Virginia
Bioinformatics Institute Harvard School of Public
Health Harvard Pilgrim Health Care University of
Pennsylvania University of California, Irvine

Collaborators
University of Warwick Brigham and Womens
Hospital Massachusetts Department of
Health University of Hong Kong Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention University of
Maryland Imperial College Brookings
Institution University of Washington
Visit the MIDAS table in the lobby
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Todays Presentations

• Resources available through MIDAS
• Bill Wheaton, RTI
• Large-scale modeling of realistic social networks
• Bryan Lewis, VBI
• Intra-hospital surveillance
• Ken Kleinman, Harvard
• Questions

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Midas Resources

• Data Resources
• Large scale U.S. and global databases to support
  modeling community
• Identification, acquisitions and processing of
  datasets
• Mostly geospatial
• Information Resources
• Historical Document and Data Catalog (HDDC)
• Web-based catalog of data and research about
  former pandemics with value-added summaries
• Active Research
• Visualization and animation of agent-based model
  outputs
• Historical epidemic data
• Synthesized agent database
• Human
• Poultry
• Beef/Cattle
• Others

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Geospatial Data

• 45 National/U.S., 37 Global Datasets
• Loaded into Multi-User Database
• All Data Documented to Federal Geographic Data
  Committee (FGDC) Standards
• Discoverable via Metadata Server
• Viewable from Web or Desktop GIS

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Synthesized Agent Database

• Generating Synthesized Populations
• Use TranSims/EpiSims Population Generator
• Generate a Spatially-Explicit U.S. Population
• 1 Record for Every Household
• 1 Record for Every Person tied to Household
• Household Structure Maintained
• Household/Person Characteristics
• Income, Age, Vehicles, Occupation, etc.

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Synthesized Poultry Database

• Problem No national micro-level (e.g.
  individual farm) poultry farm data exists.
  Therefore, models of avian flu in poultry farm
  populations are severely limited
• Objective
• Develop a national, detailed, and realistic
  synthetic poultry farm database
• Create farm locations in suitable locations
• Populate poultry farms with animal counts and
  types based on 2002 U.S. Census of Agriculture
  Counts
• First version completed May, 2007
• Team Gary Smith, U. Penn Mark Bruhn, RTI
  David Chrest, RTI George Gnheim, RTI Bill
  Wheaton, RTI

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Geospatial Analysis of 1918 Spanish Flu in Chicago
Original Maps
Infected, Oct. 19
Infected, Oct. 26
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HDDC

• Data and Documents of Historical Interest
• 1918, 1957/1958, 1968/1969 Pandemics
• PDF, spreadsheets, maps, links
• Searchable