Dr' Bruce DeVine Chief Economist SCAG

1
A Footnote on the Conference Forecasts
Dr. Bruce DeVineChief EconomistSCAG
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FORECAST ACCURACY
Total Regional Job Growth
FORECAST
ACTUAL
Year
ConferenceHeld
Employment
Absolute
Years
Employment
Absolute
Forecast
Growth
Growth
Error
Error--Jobs
1997 Total Regional Employment 6,218,000
1997
1997
2.4
2.8
0.5
1998
2.5
3.1
0.6
37,300

1999
2.0
2.7
0.7
43,500


1998
1998
2.9
3.1
0.2
1999
2.3
2.7
0.4
2000
2.3
2.7
0.4
1999
1999
2.8
2.7
0.1
2000
2.3
2.7
0.4
2001
2.2
1.1
1.1
average
Regional Economic Forecast Conference
3
FORECAST ACCURACY
Total Regional Job Growth
FORECAST
ACTUAL
Year
ConferenceHeld
Employment
Absolute
Years
Employment
Absolute
Forecast
Growth
Growth
Error
Error--Jobs
2002 Total Regional Employment 6,816,300
2000
2000
2.8
2.7
0.1
2001
2.7
1.1
1.6


2002
2.5
-0.3
2.8


2001
2001
1.6
1.1
0.5
-0.3
2002
1.2
1.5
2003
-0.2
1.7
1.9
2002
2002
0.0
0.3
-0.3
68,200
2003
1.2
1.0
0.2
2004
1.9
0.3e
1.6
average
Regional Economic Forecast Conference
4
FORECAST ACCURACY
Total Regional Job Growth
FORECAST
ACTUAL
Year
ConferenceHeld
Employment
Absolute
Years
Employment
Absolute
Forecast
Growth
Growth
Error
Error--Jobs
2003 Total Regional Employment 6,828,100
2003
2003
0.2
0.5
-0.3
34,100
2004
1.3
0.3e
1.0


2005
2.1
n.a.
n.a.

average
8
Annual
th
Regional Economic Forecast Conference
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FORECAST ACCURACY
Total Regional Job Growth
Mean Absolute Error Over7 SCAG Conferences 1997
- 2003
In Conference Year
0.31
One Year Out
0.93
Two Years Out
1.42
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Thank You