Outline

1
The Status of Food Security In Africa
United Nations Economic Commission for
Africa Suxth Session of the Committee on Food
Security and Sustainable Development
(CFSSD-6) Regional Implementation Meeting (RIM)
for CSD-18 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 27-30 October2009
Hamdou Raby Wane FSSDD/UNECA
2
Structure of the Presentation

• The Context of the Current Debate on Food
  Security in Africa
• Food Security Issues and Challenges
• The Global Food Price Surge and Its Impact on the
  Food Trade Balance
• Policy Responses Macroeconomic Implications and
  Food Price Impacts
• Recommendations on The Way Forward

3
The Context of the Current Debate on Food
Security in Africa

• Food security (FS) not only the availability
  of food, but also the ability to purchase food.
• TO BE FOOD SECURE to have a reliable source of
  food and sufficient resources to purchase it.
• To Deal with FS Policy issues 1) Assess the
  state of FS, 2) identify the underlying causes
  and the proximate factors of food shortages and
  of disruptions/losses in real incomes across the
  most food needy populations.
• Global food crisis (2007 onwards) as a Systemic
  Factor
• THREAT - has exacerbated these causes and factors
  of food insecurity
• OPPORTUNITY CHALLENGE to Africa for long-term
  solutions to hunger through agriculture-led
  growth.

4

• Novelty of a Food Crisis to Africa?
• More of the Same food shortages and hardships
• Additional stringent strains on households
  incomes, on external positions and to national
  budgets
• FC can complicate, if not reverse any progress,
  towards the attainment of the MDGs-related
  poverty and hunger targets.
• On the side use of the FC as an opportunity
  for the revitalization and the development of
  African agriculture on the medium to long term.
• Imperative build a strong consistency between
• the crisis response i.e. the set of policy
  measures and actions deployed to mitigate its
  short term impacts, and
• the medium to long term development policy.

5
Food Security Issues and Challenges
Over a decade (1995/97-2003-05), real progress
has been made in many countries and across the
sub-regions. However, the challenge seems
unabated in very large populations and this is
even more compounded by the setbacks that are
stemming from the recent global food crisis.

• Undernourishment and Hunger on the Rise
• Worldwide People chronically hungry
  (undernourished) 923 million in 2007, up by 75
  million from 2003-05 (FAO 2008 data)
• Largest additional contingents in Asia (41
  million) and in SSA (24 million, almost 1/3 of
  the total increase)
• Setback more accentuated in the recent period
  the progress made at the turn of the millennium
  has been completely wiped out in SSA as well as
  in Latin America and the Caribbean

6
Trends in number and proportion of undernourished
people

• Undernourished in SSA
• 236 million (2007) cumulated increasegt67 million
  since 199092 the base period for the World
  Food Summit (WFS) hunger reduction target
• Annual growth rate 3 times higher between 2003-05
  and 2007 than during the preceding decade
• 11 of the worlds total population 25 of the
  total of hungry people in 2003-05
• Proportion in 2003-05
• North Africa less than 5
• SSA 30 world average 13 developing world 16
• Proportion minus 4 percentage points from the
  34 plateau of 1990-92

7

• High concentration of hunger (in number and in
  prevalence) in East and Central Africa
• DRC Ethiopia 38 of the SSAs hungry people
  80 percent and 41 percent of their respective
  sub-regions. Together with Nigeria and Tanzania,
  they account for almost half of the total of the
  sub-continent.
• Central Africa
• Proportion incr. by 6 between 1995-97 and
  2003-05, mostly due to DRC (76 2.4 per an).
• 8 out of every 10 additional in SSA in 2003-05
  / 1995-97
• Large and fast reductions in countries and
  regions (Centre, South, East) with the highest
  prevalence (40-50) in the 90s

Therefore, any substantial progress in these four
countries would have an important impact on the
containment of hunger, and therefore on poverty
alleviation throughout the continent.
8
Patterns and Trends of Food Emergency

• Hunger Hotspots (HH) critical problems of food
  insecurity (GIEWS/FAO List)
• Exceptional shortfall in aggregate food
  production/supplies as a result of crop failure,
  natural disasters, interruption of imports,
  disruption of distribution, excessive
  post-harvest losses, or other supply bottlenecks
• Widespread lack of access, where a majority of
  the population is considered to be unable to
  procure food from local markets, due to very low
  incomes, exceptionally high food prices, or the
  inability to circulate within the country or,
• severe localized food insecurity due to the
  influx of refugees, a concentration of internally
  displaced persons, or areas with combinations of
  crop failure and deep poverty (FAO/GIEWS 2008).

9

• Dec.05-April 09 16/46 countries as food secure
  i.e. they did not face any food crisis that
  required emergency assistance
• 350 million people i.e. 40 of the continents
  population
• Small size countries have been more successful.
  Average pop. of 6.5 million (Gabon, Rwanda,
  Botswana, Mauritius Namibia).
• Countries facing food crises
• 19932000 an average of 15 SSA annually
• After 2001 up to 25
• 2005 onward with a core set of 20 consistently
  listed and 12 others that appear occasionally,
  SSA contributed by 60 to 70 to the FAO/GIEWS
  world list.
• East 34 of the HH. All but Rwanda
• West 2 out of 3 countries yearly or occasionally
• Centre and South 18 of HH each

10
Typology of food emergencies (2005-09)

• Overall
• Severe localized food insecurity 57
• Widespread lack of access 23
• Exceptional shortfall in aggregate
  production/supply 20
• By sub-region
• Severe localized food insecurity 70 in Central
  Eastern Africa less than ½ of the cases in
  West Africa
• Widespread lack of access 53 in West Africa
  where it is more than twice SSAs average and
  more than 5 times the level of East Africa (10
  percent) negligible in Southern and Central
  Africa
• Exceptional shortfall in food production/supply
  80 of the cases in Southern Africa East 20

11
Main Causes of food emergencies (2005-09)

• War and conflicts and the related social unrest
  in SSA (2/3 of the cases) main causes of famine
  through destruction of assets, displacement of
  populations albeit the absolute number of such
  crises has been decreasing over the period.
• More than ½ of the socio-economic and 1/3 of the
  weather-related food emergencies are associated
  with the conflict factor. Increasing proportion
  of natural disasters in SSA, especially floods
  a feature that SSA shares with the rest of the
  world.
• In 2002, about 6.3 million people (refugees,
  IDPs, returnees) were in need of assistance owing
  to conflicts and natural disasters in the Horn of
  Africa. Three quarter of them were in the IGAD
  member-countries
• HIV/AIDS scourge from 2006 onwards, identified,
  by GIEWS, as the main cause of the highly severe
  localized food insecurity that prevailed in many
  parts of Southern Africa, e.g. Malawi, Lesotho
  and Swaziland, and in some Eastern Africa
  countries.

12
Supply of major Foods groups, Energy supply and
the Diet diversity

• Average Daily Supply in 2003-05
• Cereals almost stagnated over a decade in all
  sub-regions except in Central Africa where it
  increased (at the expense of starchy roots) by
  6.7 percent yearly since early 1990s albeit its
  share remained the lowest of the sub-regions.
• Starchy roots decreased in Eastern Africa by
  1/2 percent yearly. Dramatically increased In the
  3 other sub-regions almost doubled every 2 years
  in North Africa.
• Animal products namely milk and eggs (an
  important source of protein and of
  micronutrients) increased very substantially in
  all the sub-regions but Southern Africa and, to a
  lesser extent, in West Africa. In 2003-05, it
  regained in the other three sub-regions, the
  losses incurred between 1990-92 and 1995-97.

13
The dietary energy supply increased only in North
Africa and in few SSA countries. Overall, if not
reversed, its increases were not sufficient to
meet daily energy requirements. The higher the
per capita income levels, the larger the supply
of dietary energy from animal foods (rich in
high-quality proteins and micronutrients, such as
iron, zinc and vitamin A) and the bigger the
intake of fruits and vegetables (which contain
vitamin A precursor) as substitutes to starchy
foods. These foods are usually the most
expensive. The recent global prices hike has
mostly impacted these food commodities and the
cereals. This is one of the main factors of
increased undernourishment and, therefore, of
deepened poverty in sub-Saharan African and of
likely reversals in the North
14
Economic and agricultural growth performance

• Evidence collected by the FAO shows a positive
  correlation between growth in African
  agricultural and level of performances on the
  MDG-1 target
• A steady and relatively rapid growth -
  characterized by gains in agricultural value
  added, food production, cereal production and
  cereal yields, in the 14 African countries on
  track on MDG-1 target and, inversely
• A sharp fall of food production and lower levels
  of agricultural value added (by ¼ of the rate of
  the former group) in the 14 African countries
  that either have failed to reduce the prevalence
  of undernourishment or have seen it increase
  since 199092.
• Countries that have scored stark successes
  include several that emerged from decades of
  civil war and conflict, offering striking
  evidence of the importance of peace and political
  stability for hunger reduction (FAO 2008).

15

• Growth in agriculture output has been accompanied
  with a strong growth in overall productivity
  levels in the sector.
• The best performers in overall agricultural
  productivity also recorded very substantive
  results in reducing the depth of hunger a
  measurement of the intensity of food deprivation.
  The higher the annual growth in Total Factor
  Productivity (TFP), the more retrenched is hunger
  and the higher is the collective food security as
  measured by the share of food aid in the total
  consumption.
• Most of the growth is explained by efficiency
  gains rather than technological change. Increased
  efficiency and accelerated output growth in SSA
  resulted from differential growth between
  sub-sectors.
• Maizes annual growth rates 3.5 in 1984-1993 to
  0.9 in the 1990s ?
• share in total output in 2003 1984 levels.
• Contributes to the stagnation of supply of
  cereals in all regions but Central Africa
• increased supply of proteins from animal foods to
  compensate for the maize related losses of
  proteins and lipids.

16
Top contributors (_at_ 70) to total output growth
of

• Most dynamic sub-sectors
• Oil crops - in Ethiopia, Sudan, and Ghana
• Roots and tubers - Nigeria, Ghana, Malawi, and
  Mozambique
• Other cereals - Ethiopia and Nigeria
• Milk - the highlands of East Africa and Sudan
• Vegetables Nigeria and Cameroon.
• On the Downside
• Tropical fruits - Nigeria, Ghana, and Kenya
• Beef - Highlands of East Africa and Sudan
• Rice production - Mali, Côte dIvoire, Guinea,
  and Nigeria.
• Sheep and goat meat - Nigeria and Sudan.

17
Main Characteristics of the Best-performers
Similar growth in TFP and increased labor and
land productivity owing to an increased use of
fertilizer per hectare and worker

• Countries that are more likely to have improved
  rural living standards through increased labor
  income in agriculture.
• However, acceleration of yields increase is
  needed to compensate the growth in rural
  population, improve rural income and sustain land
  management

The main challenge is now to sustain, accelerate
and broaden this in the medium to longer term in
the current context of global food and fuel
prices hike. This is imperative if Africa is to
achieve the desired changes in poverty and
malnutrition levels within the timeframe defined
under the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).
18
The Rising Urban Poverty A Threat to Food
Security

• In absolute terms, rural poverty remains higher
  than urban poverty, but urban poverty is growing
  at a faster rate.
• Rising urban poverty is a threat to food
  security
• it derives from much higher levels of inequality
  within the urban population than in the rural
  one, therefore compromising the food security of
  increasing segments of urban dwellers.
• High income inequality in urban areas is the
  reason that more than 1/2 of the urban population
  is below the poverty line in SSA countries such
  as Angola, Chad, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique,
  Niger, Sierra Leone, and Zambia
• Unlike in rural areas, food-insecurity problems
  in urban areas are not related to a lack of
  available food. Instead, they are related to
  inadequate purchasing power.
• This reduces the size of the internal agro-food
  markets, therefore, negatively impacting income
  earnings of farmers.

19

• In Africa, urban populations can use up to 60
  percent (close to 100 percent for the poorest) of
  their income on food and, thus, creating, a
  growing market.
• But, as a result of a changing urban diet of the
  wealthiest and of relatively lower cost of
  imports of staple foods derived from rice and
  wheat, the urban food demand is largely
  disconnected from the traditional food supply
  chain i.e. most of local agriculture.
• Breakdown in positive inter-sectoral linkages
  between agriculture and the rest of the economy.
  This is the main underlying factor to the high
  level of food import dependence, a major feature
  of the vulnerability of the LDCs.

20
The food import-dependency

• Since the early 90s, African LDCs have been
  exposed to increased import surges - in terms of
  numbers and of frequency. Between 40 and 60
  percent of the total import surges occurred
  during 1990-2003 for any of the commodities
  considered.
• In 20002003, African countries changed to being
  net food importers from their high surpluses of
  the 1980s. Continents share of global food
  exports stable _at_ 3, while the imports went up
  at 4-5 percent.
• Therefore, these import surges affected the
  domestic production of processed such as
  poultry meat and unprocessed agricultural goods
  such as rice and tomato paste since the
  concerned imported goods are produced locally or
  are substitutes.

21

• Yearly, on the average in 2000-2005, the total
  food trade bill was of US 17,340 billion of
  exports and of 24 billion of imports, leading to
  an average deficit of 6,600 billion.
• Food import bill US 20 billion in 2001 and gt33
  billion i.e. 2/3 of the food market in 2006,
  year in which the deficit was close to 9,600
  billion up by 45 percent on the year before.

22

• Cereals and preparations accounted for 37 percent
  of the total of the food groups.
• Share of cereals in North Africa - 43-47 SSA
  9.5-11.5.
• The global share of cereal imports by Africa
  22 percent, while its share in exports is
  roughly 3
• Import growths were above average (2.1 percent
  annually) for cereals, oilseeds, meat, beverages
  and miscellaneous food products.
• 33 countries in deficit and 18 net food
  exporters. However, converting traded food
  commodities into calories tells a different story
  of food trade.

23

• Over the period 2003-2005, total food
  consumption benefited quite substantially from
  the imports in only 2 food net exporters (Côte
  dIvoire and Malawi) and 2 food net importers
  (Mauritius and Swaziland). This is owing to more
  inward-oriented diets and to a more favorable
  caloric balance of internationally traded
  foodstuff.
• All the other (48) countries were in deficit
  i.e. the calorie-content of their food imports
  outpaced the equivalent in food exports. The net
  trade caloric balance of food was
• neutral or significantly in deficit (up to 25
  percent) in either net food exporters (13) or net
  food importers (12).
• as high as 50 percent at least in 13 others
  including 2 net food exporters (Mauritania and
  Morocco and almost all but three L-MICs).
• comprised between 1/4 and 1/2 of the total food
  consumption in the remaining 7 countries.

24

• Concentration of the most dependent along the
  Northern, the North-Western and South-Western
  coasts. Disconnected from the hinterland of the
  continent, they are as food dependent as more
  industrialized and wealthier countries like
  Mexico, Chile and Venezuela in Latin America or
  the big oil exporters in the Middle East or in
  the Arabian Gulf.

Net Trade in Food, 2003-05
25
The Vulnerability of the Households to Food
Insecurity

• Main factors of vulnerability stem from
• its status vis-à-vis the food market, primarily
  as net food seller/consumer. According to FAO
  data from nine developing countries, about 3/4 of
  rural households and 97 of urban households are
  net food buyers.
• importance of the relative share of food
  consumption expenditure in its total consumption
  expenditures
• More at risks are the vast majority of the poor
  urban and rural households (especially landless
  and female-headed households) depending on
• their dietary patterns,
• expenditure shares of internationally traded food
  staples (such as wheat, rice, maize),
• substitution options towards less-expensive
  foods,
• access to assets usable to produce and sell food
  staples competitively and to earn incomes.

26
THE GLOBAL FOOD PRICE SURGE AND ITS IMPACT ON
AFRICA

• The FAO Food Price Index in June 2008, a record
  214 points, or a 85 increase up from last term
  of 2006. Then it decreased to reach an average
  152 points in May 2009.
• Highest price rises on oils and fats along with
  cereals - a reflection of the increased
  integration of agriculture and energy markets
  through the development of corn and vegetable
  oils-based biofuels as of the feeding needs of a
  booming meat-producing business in the emerging
  markets of Asia.
• January 05 June/July 08
• Maize prices almost tripled, rice and wheat
  prices increased 170 and 127. More than doubled
  from end of 2007 well into 2008.
• palm oil prices up by 200, soybean oil by192
  and other vegetable oil prices by similar
  amounts. In comparison, other food prices i.e.
  of sugar and meat - increased by 30 to 50
• January-May 09 / same period of 2008, global
  prices of cereals decreased..

27

• Significant fall in international prices in the
  second half of 2008 by 31 percent and only by
  -0.1 percent for rice. rice prices are still well
  the above their 2007 international prices
• But, The pass-through between international
  commodity markets and consumer prices was high in
  the phase of increasing prices. The reverse was
  not evident during the subsequent period of
  falling prices.
• Purchasing food on the international market place
  has been a heavier burden to SSA than to any
  other region. In 2008, the increase was far less
  for developed countries and the expected drop in
  their 2009 bills is disproportionately higher.

All forecasts expect food prices to remain high
in the long run, mainly as a result of
continuously rising biofuel demand and structural
factors related to population and income growth
(OECD-FAO, 2009, USDA, 2009). These are worrisome
prospects for food security in African countries
that are facing losses of shares on the
international markets and depreciating value of
exports.
28
The effect on the food-trade balance
Changes (in ) in export and import of selected
countries, 2006-2008

• UN Comtrade Data - Sample of 25 African countries
  on 2006-2008. Includes 8 of the top-10 exporters
  and 6 of the top-10 importers over the period
  2000-2005.
• Total food trade of 43,270 billion, of which
  23,137 billion of imports i.e. 66 percent of
  the estimated imports of the region - it shows a
  deficit of 3 billion.
• However, the balance deficit is in diminution by
  2,723 billion i.e. -48 on a year ago, when it
  increased by its highest figure i.e. 3,878
  billion between 2006 and 2007.
• Among the Net Food Exporters
• 6 substantially improved their surplus,
• 3 registered a decreasing surplus by as high
  as1/2 (Malawi), 60 (Zambia) or 85 (Seychelles).
  
• 6 others became net food importing. Exp.
• Mauritius 90 million surplus in 2006 and a
  deficit of 190 million in 2008
• Ethiopia deficit of 40 million in 2008 from
  surpluses of 215 million and 339 million the
  preceding years.

In 2008, the top-8 exporters 60 of the food
trade, an increase in exports faster (39) than
the average of the sample (22). Contraction of
food imports (-10.5)gt av. of the 25 countries
(-4).
29
THE POLICY RESPONSES

• The Country Level
• Use of a mix of market-based and command and
  control short-term measures aiming at reducing
  consumer prices, providing safety nets to the
  most food insecure, and guaranteeing an adequate
  food supply and, performances permit, to export
  surplus.
• Set of measures have included
• releasing food stock to market, and
  waiving/easing import taxes and/or imposing
  export restrictions to maintain domestic food
  availability
• applying price controls, subsidies and cash and
  food transfers to keep food affordable to
  different segments of the society
• iii) drawing down on stocks to stabilize supplies
  and prices and,
• providing support measures to increase local
  production on the medium to the long-term
• At least initially, very few governments have
  tried to foster an agricultural supply response.
  But now, almost all of them have taken action to
  provide farmers with the support needed to boost
  agricultural production.

30

• In 24 countries in 2007 and early 2008, 7/10
  reduced cereal import taxes and roughly the same
  proportion applied export restrictions, and price
  controls or consumer subsidies in an attempt to
  keep domestic food prices below world prices.
  Almost 40 percent of the governments took action
  to increase supply, drawing down on food grain
  stock.
• Due to shortage of foreign exchange, many poor
  food-deficit countries have been importing much
  less and have been resorting to food aid or
  external assistance to bridge the gap

31

• Unexpected consequences of export restrictions or
  bans exp. of a cross-examination on both sides
  of the chains in the Sahel and West Africa around
  Nigeria and between the coast and the Sahelian
  hinterland (Staatz 2008). Given their production
  potential or market size both internally and at
  sub-regional levels, non-coordinated measures of
  the kind can jeopardize efforts towards regional
  markets integration, are short of
• taking advantage of agro-ecological
  complementarities,
• tend to hurt producers and trade partners, and
• may actually increase prices of local staple
  produces, taking them out of reach of the common
  diet.

32

• The biggest challenges faced by the existing
  social policies revolve around the following
  issues
• efficient targeting to ensure that benefits reach
  the neediest
• level and sustainability of funding in the
  context of scarcity of donors support and,
• resources mobilization and allocation i.e.
  alignment with agricultural policies. This is
  particularly relevant as the other main axis of
  action aims at fostering commercial agriculture
  and at promoting smallholder agriculture for
  poverty reduction.

33

• The Regional level
• AU/NEPAD Initiative to assist countries to
  address the food price crisis through
  acceleration of CAADP country roundtable process.
  It involves all key AU institutional partners.
• Overall objective to develop a Government/UN
  Country Action Plan that will include a call for
  assistance. Draft country action plans and
  roadmaps for short, medium and long term have
  been designed.
• Interagency assessment missions conducted.
  Components 1) Humanitarian assistance social
  safety nets 2) Agricultural production (short
  term leading to longer term solutions) 3)
  Policies to respond to high food prices 4)
  Budget adjustment to assist countries.
• Completed Action plans for Burkina Faso,
  Mauritania, Sierra Leone, Madagascar, Somalia and
  The Gambia.

34

• International Action and Commitments
• UNSG established, on 29 April 2008, a High Level
  Task Force on the Global Food Crisis (HLTF) with
  the aim of drawing a prioritized plan of action
  and coordinate its implementation.
• Comprehensive Framework for Action (CFA) Joint
  position of HLTF members reiterated by the High
  Level Conference on World Food Security attended
  by Heads of States, Gov. and Rep. of 108
  countries, 3-5 June 2008, FAO, Rome. Common
  Declaration recommending 1) to meet immediate
  needs of vulnerable populations and, 2) to build
  longer term resilience and contribute to global
  food and nutrition security
• UN System (FAO, WFP, IFAD Funds) and Others The
  World Banks New Deal for Global Food Policy IMF
  Action Plan
• More recently, LAquila Joint Statement on
  Global Food Security, 10 July 2009

35
Impact on Current Account Balance and on Balance
of Payments

• Simulations by IMF (2008a 2008b) of fuel
  food prices shocks
• Food price increase severe negative effect for 5
  LICs countries. DRC - 4 years of reserves
  Eritrea Liberia, resp. ¾ 2/3 of their initial
  position.
• Combined price hikes would take a heavy toll from
  24 countries. Morocco and South Africa and,
  marginally, Tunisia would compensate partly the
  oil price shock by taking advantage of the food
  prices surge.
• Severe reduction in coverage in 18 LICs. Stronger
  impact from food price increase (- 0.7 months of
  reserve coverage) than from the oil price ( 0.4
  months)

36

• Among ten countries surveyed by the IMF in the
  CFA Franc Zone, it is in only one i.e. Senegal,
  that the predicted increase in the food import
  bill would widen the deficit of the current
  account balance as a share of their 2007 GDP, by
  1 percent point

37
The transmission pass-through of
international price changes to domestic food
markets

• Weak urban-rural linkages buffer the rural
  communities from both urban and global economic
  downturns also limit the benefits of an economic
  upturn. Higher prices were, however, transmitted
  to consumers in most cases in spite of
  governments interventions
• Despite the decline of prices on the world market
  in the second half of 2008 and early 2009, prices
  of main staple foods in many countries of the
  region remain higher than a year ago.

38

• The main factor limiting the impact of global
  food price increases on domestic food prices has
  been the existence of a diversified base for
  domestic production of several food commodities
  in combination with a partial insulation from the
  from most global food markets, and from shifts in
  international food prices . Due to poor
  infrastructure and/or trade barriers, such as the
  early export bans in Ethiopia, Mali, Tanzania.
• In such cases, exchange rate movements also
  mitigated the impact of world market price
  increases on domestic prices. Exp in West of
  Africa (, e.g. in Ghana and Niger) and East
  Africa (e.g. in Uganda, Tanzania and Ethiopia).
• Prices of crops that are mainly domestically
  produced, e.g. maize, other coarse grains in the
  Sahel for instance, have been more closely
  related to domestic supply conditions and
  regional markets. Should the price of these
  local staples also rise, as demand for them
  increases, rising food prices would have a much
  stronger impact

39
The Household-Level effects An encroaching
Poverty

• Ivanic and Martin (2008) Increased poverty for a
  majority of the low-income countries covered in
  their sample, mainly due to the negative impact
  of higher wheat prices, followed by the prices of
  rice, dairy and maize.
• Few cases where higher commodity prices lowered
  rural poverty. West and Central Africa. The
  negative impact of food prices hike for consumers
  larger than the positive impact for net sellers
  of locally produced foods (Wodon Zaman 2008).
• An increase of 50 to Price ?
• add 4.4 percentage points to the proportion of
  poor if only the impact on consumers is taken
  into account. In countries that are highly
  dependent on food imports such as Liberia, 8
  additional percentage points with a 50 increase
  in rice prices.
• Factoring in potential gains for producers,
  poverty would still increase by 2.5 percentage
  points (Quentin Wodon et al 2008).

40

• 88 of the increase in urban poverty depth - gap
  in consumption between the average poor household
  and the poverty line - is from poor households
  becoming poorer and only 12 percent from
  households falling into poverty.
• This increase in poverty depth is roughly
  equivalent to 1 percent of GDP for a typical less
  developed country
• Of the 60 countries with high malnutrition
  burdens, 44 countries have experienced negative
  terms-of-trade impacts of recent food price
  changes (World Bank, 2008a). This is likely to
  result from cuts on food expenditures that poor
  households are to make as coping strategies.
  These cuts ? reduced diet quality and increased
  micronutrient malnutrition

41

• Liberia Joint High Food Price Assessment
  (May-June 08) at 1) households spend more on
  transport and basic food commodities and less on
  higher quality food commodities, health,
  education and housing
• 2) the proportion of households with poor or
  borderline consumption has increased
• 3) households consume slightly more staple
  commodities but less protein sources, fruits,
  vegetables and oil
• 4) restricted sources of income, indebtedness,
  weak asset such as land - ownership are driving
  reduced food consumption fewer meals a day and
  more no-meal days, food on credit ( WFP 2008).

Even though high food prices may be a temporary
shock, they are here to stay at a high level and,
more importantly, they may have long lasting
effects on physical and mental growth if proper
actions are not taken targeting the most
vulnerable groups, and women and children among
them.
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Recommendations on The Way Forward

• Making the best of the food crisis by mitigating
  its negative effects and seizing the moment to
  think and act strategically return to Long term
  perspective and to Planning in a coordinated
  way at the national, sub-regional and regional
  levels.
• Identify the main structural factors that hamper
  the supply-response to the FC. Supply response
  should be perceived in a regional as well as
  national contexts. This require open trade in
  staples and reduced transaction costs between
  neighboring countries, and strengthening the
  capacity of the private sector to respond in
  medium and long term
• Design and pilot-test on 2-3 countries per
  sub-region a Conceptual Framework for the ME of
  the sub-regional and regional impact of the
  national response-policies. Possible expected
  results improved coherence, better understanding
  of impacts strengthening of the governance of
  regional and sub-regional commitments

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• Achieving a balance between investments in export
  oriented agriculture and locally oriented
  agriculture in order to generate revenues, and
  to guarantee production not just of grains, but
  of a diversity of foods for local consumption.
  Improving the productivity of small farmers has a
  ripple effect that spreads benefits throughout
  poor rural communities, and stimulates urban
  economic activity as well market for
  labour-intensive goods and services from the
  rural non-farm sector,
• Strengthening The Links Between Nutrition and
  Agricultural development. Indeed, remaining
  malnourished for more than two years increases
  risks of stunting in children. On top of physical
  growth, stunting impairs mental potential and
  becomes an inherited genetic marker. So, should
  they remain unabated for the next few years, high
  food prices would become a huge toll on Africas
  future. Bringing down the global food crisis is a
  moral and a survival imperative. To start
  tackling this challenge, the solution resides
  less on the demand side but more on the supply
  sides i.e. ultimately on the demand side
  through income multiplier.

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• Establishing food and nutrition surveillance
  systems that can inform decision making at all
  levels, not just by central policy makers. Such
  information can provide the elements of
  predictability and accountability that are
  required in a human rights based approach to
  developing national government responses to the
  food price crisis.
• Establishing a Market Information System,
  including an Early Warning component on prices
  and cross-border flows of Grains vegetables, and
  oil-fats to inform the ME tool.

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• THANK YOU
• FOR YOUR KIND ATTENTION