Today

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Todays Agenda

• Decide on questions from web board
• Discuss theory and hypotheses
• Introduce possible theories
• Edit instructions?

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Ques. From Web Board

• How many passes?
• Circle errors versus circle and correct?
• What should we call ourselves?
• What should we call errors?

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Theory and Hypotheses
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What is a theory?

• A guide
• A way of describing and predicting the world (if
  I do only one or the other, its not a theory)
• a simplified explanation of reality(Watt and
  van den Berg)

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Kerlingers classic definition

• A theory is a set of interrelated constructs
  (concepts), definitions, and propositions that
  present a systematic view of phenomena by
  specifying relations among variables, with the
  purpose of explaining and predicting the
  phenomena.
• From Foundations of Behavioral Research, 1986

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Lets look at that closer

• Lets look at the Groupthink theory handout.

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So why do we need theory?
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Lets say we wanted to study decision-making. So
we have all of these scenarios
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And we choose to test these scenarios, to see if
the decision came out good or bad.
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And we found
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If we wanted to predict which decisions came out
good or bad, how could we?
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Without theory

• We cant.

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Without a theory to guide us

• We can describe what we found
• But we cant PREDICT it, and being able to
  predict a phenomenon is the most valuable piece
  of a theory, because then we can try to control
  it.

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But if we use a theory, such as Janus Groupthink
theory
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We can see that all of these scenarios involved
groups showing symptoms of groupthink we can
therefore predict that they made poor decisions.
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What weve chosen to test
Teaching Vocal Repetition Visual
Indicating Partner Delay Angle
Grading Subvocalization Read three times Read backwards
Motivation Read out loud Three-step Straight-edge
Student-established Tape recorder Comparison
Teacher-established Card method
Socialized correction
Use journals
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• Youve already chosen which ones you think will
  work by have a hunch.
• This is a perfectly good way to begin research,
  and thats how almost every major scientific
  discovery startswith a hunch.
• However, hunches arent systems. So, if we have
  no guide, no theory, how can we predict what will
  work if we test more?

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If we dont have theory, how can we predict what
else will work?
Teaching Vocal Repetition Visual
Indicating Partner Delay Angle
Grading Subvocalization Read three times Read backwards
Motivation Read out loud Three-step Straight-edge
Student-established Tape recorder Comparison
Teacher-established Card method
Socialized correction
Use journals
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What we need is a theory (or one or two)

• To predict which methods will work and which ones
  wont.
• Then, we build our hypotheses, and if they are
  supported with our data.

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• If the hypotheses are proven correct, in the way
  that the theory predicts, then the theory is
  shown to be stronger than it was beforeit has
  more support.
• If the hypotheses arent supported, then the
  theory becomes weaker.
• In this way, research helps refine theories by
  supporting them or showing instances in how they
  dont work.

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Cycle of Research and Theory-Building
People notice phenomena.
They gather information about the phenomena.
The theory is strengthened.
They build a theory which explains and predicts
it.
People use the theory to write hypotheses.
They share their theory with other people.
Are the hypotheses supported?
People conduct studies.
The theory is weakened.
The researchers may suggest modifications.
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Tell me what it is about the methods you chose
that you think will work?

1. Partner
2. Subvocalization
3. Time between
4. Reading backwards
5. Straight-edge/card

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What theories might we use?

• Information processing theory
• Reading theory (processing words)
• Cognitive theory

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What are hypotheses?

• verbal statements that specify how the
  variables, as defined by operational definitions,
  should be associated with one another if the
  theoretical linkage, is, in fact, correct(p. 45)

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Types of Relationship

• Nullwhich is to say no relationship
• Covariancetwo or more variables change at the
  same time
• Positive relationshipone goes up, the other goes
  up
• Negative relationshipone goes up, the other goes
  down
• Causationthis is the hardest to prove

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Proving Causation

• To say something caused something else you must
  have the following
• Spatial contiguity (the events must be connected
  in the same time and space)
• Covariance
• Temporal ordering (the cause must come first)
• Necessary connection (the anti-magic clause)

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Types of Hypotheses

• Relationship
• Comparative
• Directional
• Nondirectional