Use of Dynamical Adaptation in Research Impact Studies

1
Use of Dynamical Adaptation in Research Impact
Studies

• Second Workshop on Statistical and Dynamical
  Adaptation
• 05 - 06 May 2003, Vienna, Austria
• Martina Tudor
• Meteorological and Hydrological Service
• Gric 3, HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia
• tudor_at_cirus.dhz.hr

2
The Problem
Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia

• new road in an area with strong Bura
• need to estimate expected wind speeds
• experience with the Maslenica Bridge
• insufficient spatial density of measurements
• high resolution dynamical adaptation
  significantly improves the large scale wind
  fields when the main forcing is the pressure
  gradient over mountains, as it is the case with
  bura
• expected wind speeds were estimated using
  operational 2-km resolution dynamical adaptation
  for a few extreme weather cases

Second Workshop on Statistical and Dynamical
Adaptation 05 - 06 May 2003, Vienna, Austria
3
The Area
Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia
highways in Croatia (green are built and red are
planned)

• the part related to this study, the highway will
  cross the Velebit mountain and Velebit channel
  across the Maslenica Bridge

mountainous area
Second Workshop on Statistical and Dynamical
Adaptation 05 - 06 May 2003, Vienna, Austria
4
The Study
Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia

• The highway will connect inland and coastal parts
  passing through an area with frequent strong Bura
  events.
• When the original impact study for the highway
  was done, the data was available only from the
  automatical meteorological stations on Maslenica
  Bridge and Sv. Rok Tunnel.
• Dynamical adaptation of the surface wind speed
  has already proven to be very good for Maslenica
  Bridge in strong bura situations on a study on
  MAP IOP 15 case.
• ALADIN model was used to estimate the strength of
  the wind along the new road.

Second Workshop on Statistical and Dynamical
Adaptation 05 - 06 May 2003, Vienna, Austria
5
Dynamical Adaptation
Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia

• Operational version was used
• input 8-km resolution wind field is interpolated
  to 2-km resolution grid and then dynamicaly
  adapted
• numerical model ALADIN is run for 30 min with
  60-sec time-step with 2-km resolution
• part of the physics describing the moist and
  radiation processes is excluded
• number of levels in the upper troposphere and
  stratosphere is reduced
• can not predict local thermal circulation or
  circulation caused by convection processes

Second Workshop on Statistical and Dynamical
Adaptation 05 - 06 May 2003, Vienna, Austria
6
The representation of terrain
Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia
8-km resolution
8-km resolution
Terrain height in the ALADIN/ Croatia domain
(top), zoom of it (top, right) and in the
dynamical adaptation domain (right).
2-km resolution
Second Workshop on Statistical and Dynamical
Adaptation 05 - 06 May 2003, Vienna, Austria
7
MAP IOP 15
Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia
Measurement data, ALADIN Croatia forecasts and
dynamical adaptation of surface wind for
Maslenica from 6th to 11th November 1999.
Second Workshop on Statistical and Dynamical
Adaptation 05 - 06 May 2003, Vienna, Austria
8
The first study
Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia
Maslenica Bridge
Sv. Rok Tunel
Sv. Rok Tunel
Maslenica Bridge
Surface wind field (left) and vertical
cross-section along lat44.24 (right) with 2-km
resolution for 16th December 1999, 21 UTC. Arrows
on both pictures represent the direction of the
horisontal wind, and shaded areas correspond to
the wind speed in (m/s).
Second Workshop on Statistical and Dynamical
Adaptation 05 - 06 May 2003, Vienna, Austria
9
New data
Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia

• after the construction of the road began,
  instruments of a few new automatic meteorological
  stations were set up

View from the exit from the Ledenik tunnel
Novigrad Sea
Velebit Channel
Maslenica Bridge
Baricevic viaduct and the measuring site
Second Workshop on Statistical and Dynamical
Adaptation 05 - 06 May 2003, Vienna, Austria
10
Dynamical adaptation 2
Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia

• 2-km resolution dynamical adaptation forecast
  results were compared to the measurements on new
  stations
• for one case of bura, operational wind speed
  forecasts were compared to the two alternatives
• dynamical adaptation was run with full physics
• full 48 hour forecast was run with 2-km
  resolution
• The results prove that the choice of the
  operational dynamical adaptation setup for the
  estimation of the expected wind speed in extreme
  cases was good.

Second Workshop on Statistical and Dynamical
Adaptation 05 - 06 May 2003, Vienna, Austria
11
Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia
operational
full physics
Surface wind for the operational dynamical
adaptation (top, left), dynamical adaptation
using the whole physics package (top) and with
full forecast integration on the dynamical
adaptation domain (left).
forecast
Second Workshop on Statistical and Dynamical
Adaptation 05 - 06 May 2003, Vienna, Austria
12
Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia
operational
full physics
Vertical wind cross-section along lat44.24 for
the operational dynamical adaptation (top, left),
using the whole physics package (top) and
forecast with 2-km resolution.
forecast
Second Workshop on Statistical and Dynamical
Adaptation 05 - 06 May 2003, Vienna, Austria
13
Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia
Comparison with measurements
Baricevic Viaduct
Ledenik Tunnel
Maslenica Bridge
Pag Bridge
Second Workshop on Statistical and Dynamical
Adaptation 05 - 06 May 2003, Vienna, Austria
14
Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia
Comparison with measurements 2
Baricevic Viaduct
Ledenik Tunnel
Measurement data, ALADIN Croatia forecasts and
operational dynamical adaptations of surface wind
for Maslenica for February 2003.
Second Workshop on Statistical and Dynamical
Adaptation 05 - 06 May 2003, Vienna, Austria
15
Conclusions

• this approach works well when the wind is strong
  enough to overcome the circulation induced by
  local thermal or convection induced circulation
• therefore, it represents a powerfull tool for
  estimation of the expected wind speed during the
  extreme weather events induced by pressure
  gradient forcings
• however, it has limited ability in extreme
  weather events including convection.