Power Sector of China

1
Power Sector of China

• Prof. HU Zhaoguang
• State Power Economic Research Institute, Warwick
  UK,14Dec.2007
• huzhaoguang_at_chinasperi.com.cn

2
Contents

• States of power sector in China
• Conflict of energy efficiency and de-regulation
• Energy saving as the first priority in Chinas
  strategy of Energy
• TRP/IRP
• Measures
• Intelligent Laboratory of Power Economics
• The Power of Policies on Economic Growth
• Global Economy leads to Energy Globalization

3
States of power sector in China
4
The Data from Power Sector to View The State
Economy

• Generation, transmission, distribution and
  consumption are finished without time delay.
• Electricity can not be stored in big amount
  technically.
• The data of the electricity from both supply and
  demand sides are automatically recorded by
  computers and meters with very high accurate and
  time reality.
• Electricity is widely used in most economic
  activities except transporting.

5
Economic Cycle
6
Power Supply in 2006

• Total generation capacity 622GW
• Coal fired power plant 484GW,77.82
• Hydro power128.5GW,20.67
• Nuclear power7.01GW1.18

7
Power Generation in 2006

• Total power generation 2834.4TWh,growth 14
• Hydro 416.7TWh,share 14.7
• Thermal 2353.7TWh,share 83.17
• Nuclear 54.3TWh,share 1.92?

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Power Supply/Demand Index
9
Electricity Consumption in China
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Electric Power Generation Capacity
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The Share of Electricity with Terminal Energy
Consumption
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Data on Power Supply Side in China
Source China Electric Reliability Management
Annual Report, 2005
13
Coal used for thermal generation in Chinagce/kWh
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The Structure of Thermal Units

• 500-800MW share 18.48
• 300-399MW share 46.19
• 200-299MW share 17.95
• 100-199MW share 17.39

15
Installed Thermal Units in 2006

• 900-1000MW 3 units
• 660-670MW 2 units
• 640-650MW 2 units
• 600MW 63 units
• 350MW 1 units
• 310-330MW 19 units
• 300MW 65 units
• 220MW 3 units
• 210MW 3 units
• 200MW 11 units
• 130-199MW 46 units
• 125MW 1 units

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Line Loss of TD in China
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Coal used for some thermal generation
unitsgce/kWh
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Conflict of energy efficiency and de-regulation
20
Conflict Between Price and Energy Efficiency in
the Competition

• There are 484GW coal-fired power plants in China,
  where 275GW with the unit over 300MW, 321GW with
  the unit over 200MW and 378GW with the unit over
  100MW. There is 60GW with the unit lower than
  100MW except co-generation. They are still in
  operation with more than 450gce/kWh.

21
Conflict Between Price and Energy Efficiency in
the Competition

• However, some of them with more than 20years old
  and the payback of the investment has been
  finished. Cost of the generation is very lower.
  It is very difficult for big units with higher
  energy efficiency to win in the competition.

22
Simulation of the conflict

• Power generation 1989TWh by coal-fired power
  plants in 2005
• By price competition
• Spot price0.298RMB/KWh
• Coal used689.8Million tce
• By energy efficiency
• Spot price0.312RMB/KWh
• Coal used607.6Million tce
• Coal saving82.2Million tce
• Price up0.014RMB/KWh

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Energy saving as the first priority in Chinas
strategy of Energy
24

• Challenges
• Pollutions
• Energy resources
• Energy
• Saving
• IRP/DSM

25
The Benefits of Demand Side Management

• DSM is the largest energy resource
• DSM is the cheapest energy resource
• DSM is the cleanest energy resource
• DSM is the fastest energy resource
• DSM increases energy reliability
• DSM increases competitiveness
• DSM increases energy security
• DSM stimulates economic development

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DSM IN CHINA 90-2000
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DSM in 2001-2005

• Power shortage 24-32GW
• Peak load moving 9GW(coal saving 5.6Mtce in
  generation side) in 2003
• Energy saving 52TWh in 2003
• Peak load moving 11GW (coal saving 6.7Mtce in
  generation side) in 2004
• Energy saving 81TWh in 2004
• Peak load moving 13GW (coal saving 7.2Mtce in
  generation side) in 2005
• Energy saving 48TWh in 2004

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The top 5 peak load less than 50 hours each year
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Potentials of DSM in China

• The technical potential will be around 500-900TWh
  and the economic potential will be around
  200-350TWh annually until 2020.
• The technical potential of peak load moving will
  be around 50-100GW and the economic potential
  will be around 20-50GW annually until 2020.

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By DSM

• If 5 of electricity saving and 5 peak load
  reduction through DSM
• Then
• 100 GW of generation capacity will be saved in
  2020

31
Efficiency of Load Management

• It has been proved that one percent higher of
  load factor will save 4gce/kwh in thermal power
  plants. It was 7Mtce in 2003 in China

32
Traditional Resources Planning and Integrated
Resources Planning
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Electricity demands in 2020

• The electricity demand of implementing
  industrialization for a country/region is that
  the electricity consumption per-capita should be
  around 4500kWh at least, the electricity used for
  resident per-capita should be around 900kWh at
  least, the generation capacity should be around
  1kW at least, the shares for industrial,
  commercial and residential sectors are around
  55, 18 and 20 respectively.

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Electricity saved TRP/IRP
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Generation capacity saved TRP/IRP
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Coal saved TRP/IRP
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CO2 mitigating
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Measures

• China is planning to close 50GW such inefficient
  thermal power plants until 2010. And it has been
  closed such power plants about 10GW in 2007. It
  is clear that the plan will make great
  contribution to the energy efficiency target of
  2010.
• It will be able to save 60 million tce each year.

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Measures

• Competition by energy efficiency
• Energy efficiency as the rule in dispatch in the
  order as
• Renewable energy generation
• Nuclear power
• Co-generation
• Thermal power in the order of energy efficiency

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Measures

• Audit energy consumption in energy intensive
  industrial sectors, and set higher energy
  efficiency standards. If the energy intensity of
  a production facility is higher than the minimum
  standard, the facility must be phased out in the
  current year.
• Provide market based-financial incentives for
  industrial stakeholders to invest in energy
  efficient technologies. These policies include
  tax exemption, soft-loans and green certificates.
  The government needs to develop a market
  mechanism to trade green certificates.
• Put DSM into Energy Conservation Law, Electricity
  Law and other relative laws to set up a
  sustainable mechanism on promoting DSM.
• Establish a stable and adequate funding to
  implement DSM programs. The DSM funding may come
  from tariffs, local taxes on environment
  pollutions, or other sources. There is a need to
  create special funds to support DSM within the
  power sector.
• Go further with pricing reforms that will
  facilitate the implementation of time-of-use
  tariffs and interruptible prices.

43
Intelligent laboratory of power economics
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What is Laboratory?

• if then
• Physical laboratoryphysical laws
• Policy simulationIntelligent Engineering

45
Economic growth and electricity growth with
direct correlation
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Inverted Pendulum
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Mathematical model


48
Fuzzy Control Rules

• Ek?ECj ?
• If Enb and ECnb then unb
• If Enb and ECnm then unb
• If Enb and ECns then unm
• If Enb and ECzr then unm
• If Enb and ECps then uns
• If Enb and ECpm then uns
• If Enb and ECpb then uzr
• Nb negative big
• ns negative small
• Zr zero

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The trend of methodology

• brief complex simple

System engineering
Intelligent engineering
Brief model
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Intelligent Engineering

• Artificial Intelligence
• Fuzzy Systems
• Neural Networks
• 'Intelligent Engineering-Its Application'
  Proceedings of the IEEE International Conference
  on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, v 1, 1995, p
  609-614

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Intelligent Space

• DEFINITION 1. Intelligent path P is a set of
  (fuzzy) relations, (fuzzy) mappings,
  transformations and all the ways between the
  start state set S0 and destination state set D.
  It can be in the form as
• P S0 ? D (1)

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Intelligent Space

• DEFINATION 2. Let d ? D and s ?S0, P is a set of
  intelligent path between S0 and D. Then, it is in
  the form as
•  
• d IP(s) (2)
•  
• The formula (2) is called as intelligent
  equation.
•  

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Intelligent Space

• DEFINITION 3. Intelligent space is defined as
• I lt P, S gt (3)
  
•  
• where S is the set of states and P is the set
  of intelligent path between S0 and D, S0 and D
  are subset of S.

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Intelligent Space

• DEFINITION 4. A problem B is defined as
• B lt S0, D, PB gt (4)
• where S0 is a set of start states, D is a set
  of destination states and PB is a set of the
  intelligent path between S0 and D, it is a subset
  of P in intelligent space I.
• PB C P (5)

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Intelligent Space

• DEFINITION 5. A a-smart solution for the problem
  B is defined as SL(a) if there is a fuzzy set fP
  in PB
• fp PB---gt0,1 (6)
• and  
• SL(a)x l ufP(x)gta, x ?PB (7)
  
• where a ? 0,1

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Generalized Model

• It is defined as all the ways between set X and
  set Y. It can be in the form as
• f X? Y
• It is a intelligent path in intelligent space.
  

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Generalized Model

• Mathematical model
• f(X,Y)0

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Generalized Model

• Rule based model the rules to express the
  knowledge in a logical form as
• IF A THEN B
• It is a map
• f X ? Y A in X and B in Y

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Generalized Model

• Neural Network model
• X N N Y
• It is a map
• f X ? Y

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Generalized Model

• fuzzy model
• A fuzzy inference B
• It is a fuzzy map
• f X ? Y A in X and B in Y

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Simulating Laboratory

• Data Base
• Knowledge Base
• Model Base
• Methodology Base

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Structure of the Laboratory
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Methodology Base

• Fuzzy inference
• Neural Networks
• Genetic algorithm
• Grey method
• Agent

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Model Base

• Economic model
• Economic-Energy model
• Economic-Electricity model
• Environment model
• Grey model
• Energy demand forecasting model

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Peak Load Shifting by Policy

• Tariff amplify of TOU
• Tariff area customers in TOU
• Interrupted load customers accepted IL
• Result
• Demand peak load reduced

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Economic model

• Computable General Equilibrium CGE
• Input-output model(I/O table revised with RAS and
  EC)

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Intelligent Simulation of State Economy
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The Power of Policies on Economic Growth
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Growth of Electricity demand
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Electricity demand intensity for second and
tertiary
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Electricity demand intensity for heavy and light
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Global Economy leads to Energy Globalization
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Chinas Import Export 100MUSD
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Energy in the Import/Export Products Million toe
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Net Energy Export in Products Million toe
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Net Energy Export Million toe
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Electricity International Trade

• Transmitting electricity from circumjacent
  countries to replace the import oil.
• 620TWh will replace 100Million toe by
  electrification in transport sector.

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• International power
• transmission from Russia by DC 800 kv

Xian
Wuhan
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• International power
• transmission from Kazakstan

Xian
Wuhan
84

• International power
• transmission from Mongolia

Beijing
Wuhan
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Power Transmission in 2020
Power Transmite250GW
North
east
South
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Ultra-High Voltage Grids

• Pilot project of AC transmission line with 1000kv
  from Shanxi to Hubei 653.8km to transmit power
  6GW has been constructed.
• It will be over 4200km in 2010
• DC transmission lines with 800kv are planning to
  transmit hydro-power from south-west to east
  China.

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Ultra-High Voltage Grids
 
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Open Problem

• Mathematic proving on
• G a cycle group
• D a sub-cycle group of G
• Open problem for proving
• There are group G as economic system and D as
  power economic system, are they isomorphic?
• If yeas, the state economic system can be studied
  from power economic system.
• EuroScience Open Forum 2004 Stockholm in August
  2004

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• Thank
• You !

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• Dr. Zhaoguang Hu, Professor, vice president and
  chief economist at State Power Economic Research
  Institute of China, is working on energy
  economics such as power system planning, power
  demand forecasting, energy conservation and
  Demand Side Management(DSM), and power sector
  reform. As a consultant, he has cooperated with
  international organizations in the above areas.
  He has own a special award from the Central
  Government of China as an expert with great
  contribution to China's Science development. He
  has published more than 100 papers. He is an
  Honorary professor at North China Electric Power
  University and Beijing Jiaotong University.
• He got his BS at Huadong Petroleum University in
  1982. He got his MS and Ph.D at Electric Power
  Research Institute(EPRI) of China in 1984 and
  1989 respectively. He used to work at EPRI during
  1984-1987, 1989-1993 and 1996-1999. He worked at
  Mara Institute of Technology for teaching and
  researching in Malaysia from 1993 to 1996.