Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia

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Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit -Somalia
Post Gu 09 Assessment Analysis Juba
Region August 2009
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
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Gu 09 Seasonal Assessment Coverage
Field Access and Field Data Locations
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Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income

• Livelihood Groups Main Sources of Food and
  Income
• 2 Pastoral Livelihoods (Southeast and Southern
  Inland Pastoralists)
• Primary sources of income of poor sale of
  livestock livestock products
• Primary sources of food of poor purchase
• Primary livelihood asset of poor camel, cattle,
  sheep/goat

• 2 Agro-pastoral Livelihoods (Southern and Lower
  Juba Agro-pastoralists)
• Southern Agro-pastoral are more pastoral in the
  west than those in the east who are
  agriculturalists main sources of income sale
  of livestock livestock products,
  self-employment, employment, crop sales main
  source of food is purchase
• Lower Juba Agro-pastoral are more pastoralists
  than agriculturists main source of income
  sales of livestock products and wild food sales
  main source of food own production and
  purchases.
• Riverine (M. and L. Juba)
• Main source of income of poor Crop sales, wage
  labour, self-employment (collection of bush
  products)
• Main sources of food of poor Own production and
  market purchase

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Climate Performance of the Gu 09 Season

• Gu Seasonal Rains (April- June)
• Start of Season started on time
• Temporal and Spatial Distribution erratic,
  patchy and localized
• Dry in north - April(3rd dekad), May (1st 2nd
  dekad), June (1st 2nd dekad)
• Dry in south - April (2nd 3dekad), May (1st 2nd
  3rd dekad), June (1st 2nd dekad)
• Normal rains Southern Lower Juba
  agro-pastoralists, Riverine and Southeast
  pastoral of Buale, south Sakow and north Jilib
• Poor rains Southeast Southern Inland
  Pastoralists Lower Juba Southern
  agro-pastoralist, Riverine livelihood zones of
  north Sakow, Afmadow, Jmame, Kismayo,
• Badhadhe and south Jilib
• Hagaa Rain (July Aug 09.)
• Start of Season Early start and ongoing
• Temporal and Spatial Distribution widely
  distributed, good along the coastal and adjacent
  Juba riverine, southeast pastoral and Lower Juba
  agro-pastoral

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Climate Vegetation Conditions
Trends in NDVI RFE by district land cover
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Civil Insecurity

• Civil Security Situation
• Tension on resources emerged due to high
  livestock in-migration (July 09), but under
  control by the local authorities.
• High Militia regrouping in the regions, which
  could spark clashes
• Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security
  Nutrition
• Medium Impact
• Short-term restrictions on movement and trade in
  Juba regions
• Increased IDPs due to civil insecurity

Source FSAU Protection Cluster
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Agriculture
Regional Gu 09 Cereal Production by Districts
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Agriculture
Off-Season Cereal Estimates
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Agriculture
Combined Regional Gu09/ Off-season Cereal
Production by Districts
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AgricultureTrends in Lower Juba Cereal Production
Gu Cereal Production Trends (1995 2009)
Annual Cereal Production Trends (1995 2009)
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AgricultureTrends in Lower Juba Cereal
Production Plus Off-season Production
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AgricultureTrends in Middle Juba Cereal
Production
GU Cereal Production Trends (1995 2009)
Annual Cereal Production Trends (1995 2009)
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Agriculture Trends in Middle Juba Cereal
Production Plus Off-season Production
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1.Good Maize and Sesame Crops, Rahole, Buale, M.
Juba, July 09.2. Good Sesame Crop and Maize,
Sakow yarey, Sakow,M. Juba,July 09.3. Good
Sorghum Crop. Finka Weer, Sakow,M. Juba,
July,09.
Agriculture Gu 09 Crops Crop Conditions in
M.Juba
1
2
3
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1. Maize Crop failure, Qaysan Guur, Afmadow,L.
Juba,July 09.2. Near depletion catchments,
Afmadow Agro-pastoral, July09
Agriculture Gu 09 Crops Crop Condition in
L.Juba
1
2
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AgricultureJuba Cash Crops
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2. Good Sesame Establishment. Buale, M. Juba,
July09.
Agriculture Gu 09 Crops Cash Crops
1
2
1. Good Banana and Cucumber Crops. Jilib, M.
Juba, July 09.
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3
4. Good Sesame Crop Dheshek Waamo, Afmadow,
Lower Juba July 09.
3. Good Sesame Maize Crops Dheshek Waamo,
Afmadow, Lower Juba July 09.
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Agriculture
Gu 09 Cereal Flow Map
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Agriculture

• Regional Trends in Cereal Prices Terms of Trade
  (M. and L. Juba)

Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (maize)
Regional Trend in Terms of Trade Cereal to
Labor (Maize kg /daily wage)
Kg
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Livestock Rangeland Conditions and Livestock
Migration, July 09

• Poor performance of Gu 09 season in Lower Juba
• Negatively affected both crop, rangeland and
  water conditions
• Resulting poor crop production
• Leading to stressed and abnormal migration
• Normal performance of Gu 09 in most parts of
  Middle Juba

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Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk
Production
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Livestock Gu 09 Livestock Overall Statement
South-East Pastoral LZ in Lower Juba has been
affected by poor rainfall and influx of livestock
from neighbouring regions, which has resulted in
early depletion of pasture and water. This caused
further migration of livestock towards Riverine
livelihood and coastal areas in Kismayo.
Dried W.Catchment, W Doblei Buale, Middle Juba,
July09
In-migrating pastoralists From Gedo Dif,
Afmadow, Lower Juba, July09
Out -migrating south-east pastoral, To Riverine,
Qoeiad-Xagar, Lower Juba, July09
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Trends in Livestock Prices and Terms of Trade In
L. and M. Juba
Livestock
Regional Average Monthly Prices Local Quality
Goat (SoSh)
Regional Trends in Terms of Trade Cereal to
Goat (maize kg/ head)
Regional Trends in Terms of Trade Cereal to Goat
(kg/head)
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Markets
Imported Commodity Prices, Labour
Rates/Availability

• Factors Affecting Commercial Import
• Price Declines (last six months)
• Declining global prices
• Increased commercial imports
• Appreciated/ Stable SoSh
• Monsoon course causing low supply and high
  demand
• Factors Affecting Wage Labour Availability
• High labour migration
• Lower investments in construction activities
• Poor performance of rain season in L. Juba

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NutritionSummary of Nutrition Findings in Juba
Regions
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Nutrition Nutrition Situation Estimates - Juba
Regional Maps
Juba Regions Nutrition Situation Estimates,
January 2009
Juba Regions Nutrition Situation Estimates, July
2009
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IPC Analysis Templates
Overall Statements
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IPC Analysis Templates
Overall Statements
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IPCSummary Retrogression of Rural IPC
Situation

• Key IPC Reference Outcomes (AFLC 50 of poor in
  South-East Pastoral and Lower Juba Agro-pastoral)
  
• Acute malnutrition Very Critical in affected
  areas
• Food Access Lack of entitlement, 2100 kcal ppp
  day via livelihood asset stripping
• Water Access accessed via livelihood asset
  stripping
• Destitution/Displacement emerging, diffuse (e.g.
  Afmadow and Badhaadhe)
• Coping crisis strategies with increasing trend
• Livelihood Assets accelerated and critical
  depletion
• Main Causes
• Harsh and prolonged Jilaal followed by poor Gu
  seasonal rainfall leading to
• crop failure
• limited livestock production and high livestock
  off-take
• High food and non-food prices, high water and
  fodder prices
• Reduced household income

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IPCEstimated Rural Population in AFLC HE
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IPCEstimated Rural Population in AFLC HE
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IPC Estimated Urban Population in AFLC HE
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• The End